Question Time

Curious about Biden's Cabinet?... Premiering RIGHT NOW!

4 years ago | [YT] | 44

Question Time

What's Biden been up to in his first days in office?

4 years ago | [YT] | 34

Question Time

QT Politics is back!

Happy New Year, everybody.

Remember back in December? Many were looking forward to 2021 as the year COVID might finally be defeated, and the news around Washington politics might begin to calm.

Instead, the year has already brought shock after shock, with the unprecedented storming of the Capitol by American citizens, and a second impeachment for Trump (a first in American Presidential History). And that's just the first item on the list for consequences the president has, and may soon, face as a result of the Jan 6th Capitol Riot...

4 years ago | [YT] | 53

Question Time

Yup, didn’t change anything...

Biden won the Georgia Recount

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/19/joe-biden-…

4 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 445

Question Time

Looks like my "Clinton Handicap" electoral college map projection may have accurately predicted every race other than Florida. (You can find it in my video Can Trump Still Win? Posted on Oct. 30)

We'll have to wait to see how accurate it ends up being, but I do want to point out why this map was probably more right than most of the msm projections. I'll consider making a video on this, if you guys are interested, but essentially, my calculations were based on the idea that we would have a repeat of the polling bias present in 2016: that pollsters, and thus FiveThirtyEight, would be off by about as much in each state as they were then. (In fact, it looks like they were even more off.)

FiveThirtyEight and others continually insisted throughout the 2020 election that many or most pollsters had fixed their polling mistakes from 2016. They thought 'uneducated whites' was the one problem with last election's polls, so they began to weight results by education. It made sense to me that that would be a potential improvement, but I was not particularly convinced that that would do the real job.

Based in part from feed back I've received from the Trump supporters who have watched my videos and engaged with me in good faith conversations in the comments sections, I've long considered the possibility that the problem was neither the weighting of different polls (by 538 or RCP) nor the weighting of demographics within polls (done by the pollsters themselves--Gallup, Emerson, Morning Consult, IPSOS, etc).

The corruption of polls involving Trump supporters, I think, happens at the level of the respondents themselves. If you are a Trump supporter, you probably do not have kind thoughts about Universities like Monmouth or Harvard. Likewise, you probably don't like media outlets like CNN or NBC. Indeed, a tenet of Trumpism has been that the media is "the enemy of the people". So, not only should we expect that a lot of Trump supporters would not be happy to respond accurately to polls from msm outlets--we should expect that a reasonable portion might actively feel an interest to prove that the media is fake, by serving them up fake answers to a survey they know the media will tout as accurate.

Several pollsters have confused this concept with the idea of the "shy Trump supporter". Tests run by Morning Consult and others were conducted: polling by phone and online to compare results. Their tests found little-no shyness: online or by phone, there seemed to be the same number of Trump supporters. But, the issue is not "shy" support, it's active disdain.

If you want your polls to be accurate, the people you survey need to want the same thing, or at least, not really care.

The reason I think the "Clinton Handicap" dealt fairly well with this trend is the fact that the only assumption inherent to it is that we'll see an approximately steady % of Trump supporters lying to pollsters (in a random, weighted sample in a given state).

This, apparently wasn't the case in Florida, if it is indeed the cause of the polling inaccuracies we've seen since Trump entered the political arena. If it was the only cause, then Trump supporter disdain for pollsters must have increased during the past four years. (A more precise analysis of the figures in each state should give us a better understanding how far off the counts have been, and if there's desirable trends, assuming my hypothesis to be correct.)

If pollster disdain was indeed the cause of polling inaccuracies during the Trump era, and if it's coming to an end now, should we expect this issue to continue on into a Biden presidency?

4 years ago | [YT] | 585

Question Time

Just a friendly reminder that this was a t-shirt after the 2016 election...

4 years ago | [YT] | 715

Question Time

The AP has called it. Prepare to be constantly hearing the term "President Biden". (For now, "President-Elect Biden")

4 years ago | [YT] | 795

Question Time

With Pennsylvania and Georgia now flipping Blue in the vote count leads, it's looking even more likely that Biden will win the election. Because of the Blue Shift effect we've been observing across numerous states (caused mainly by mail votes being counted after election day votes in many states), it's unlikely that we'll see Georgia or Penn switch back to Red.

But it's not impossible.

After Arizona was called by many news outlets, we saw Trump's vote count begin to run up significantly. There's no guarantee this couldn't happen in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Still, it is unlikely to happen in each of them, and for Trump to win, he needs to win all three, plus North Carolina.

Alaska has still yet to be called, but will almost certainly end up in Trump's column.

It's worth noting that even with the projected results, these are still not "locked in". The official results do not technically exist until states certify them.

Expect a number of recounts and legal challenges to go on for some time.

Trump's campaign has not conceded, despite the leads that Biden has taken in Key States Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Indeed, the Trump camp has requested a recount in Wisconsin, where, with 99% reporting, the vote count is currently at: 49.6% Biden (1,630,568) to 48.9% Trump (1,610,029). The state allows for a recount if the margin of the result is within 1%. It's unlikely that a recount will make up a difference of over 20k votes. (Back in 2016, Jill Stein of the Green Party requested a recount in Wi, resulting in a net change of just 131 votes. Clinton gained 713; Trump 844.)

In Georgia, a recount is already being planned. With 99% reporting, the count is currently 49.4% for both candidates: Biden 2,450,154; Trump 2,448,570. That's a razor-thin margin of less than 2,000 votes. In Georgia, there are no mandated recounts, but a recount can be requested in races with a margin of no more than .5 percent of total votes cast.

In Michigan, a recount is mandated if the race is separated by 2k votes or fewer, but Biden's current lead exceeds that by quite a bit: around 150k votes. A recount can be requested by a candidate however, if there's evidence of fraud or error.


In Arizona, a non-mandatory recount may not be requested, but a recount is triggered if the margin of votes is .1 percent, or 200 or fewer votes in races with more than 25,000 votes. (Currently, with 90% reporting, Biden leads by 1.4%: 50% to 48.6%)

In Nevada, there is no mandatory recount, but a candidate can request one.

In Pennsylvania, a recount is mandated if the margin is .5% or less. A non-mandatory recount can also be requested if three qualified electors in each district being contested allege an error. (With 98% reporting, Biden's lead in Penn is currently around .1%. Biden has 49.5% to Trump's 49.4%--but this lead can be expected to increase, as more mail ballots are counted.)

4 years ago | [YT] | 477

Question Time

The 2020 Presidential Election Results so far...
Beware! Votes are still being tabulated. A winner has not yet been declared.

4 years ago | [YT] | 39

Question Time

Guys, remember when I said there might be a red mirage?

4 years ago | [YT] | 99