Tyler Hill Crypto

Markets are quietly pricing in a full easing cycle, with Fed funds near 3% by next October.

That path implies at least six cuts from current levels, setting up one of the steepest rate declines in decades.

If inflation stays contained, liquidity rotation could accelerate, and Bitcoin becomes the high-beta play on that convexity.

The risk? Sticky core CPI keeping real yields high and delaying the melt-up everyone’s waiting for.

14 hours ago | [YT] | 34

Tyler Hill Crypto

CZ’s pardon removes the headline risk.

But conviction isn’t measured in pressers, it’s measured in pipes.

If U.S. banks reopen rails and licenses follow, distribution expands and liquidity deepens.

If counterparties stay cold, it’s theater, not flow.

Policy can clear paths... Only access moves markets.

1 day ago | [YT] | 15

Tyler Hill Crypto

Bitcoin reclaiming $110K after softer CPI shows where conviction truly sits.

The market isn’t chasing “risk-on” it’s consolidating around the only asset still commanding belief: BTC.

Implied volatility dropping from 52% to 45% signals fear unwinding fast,

while dealer gamma between $112K–$120K shows a controlled range forming.

Altcoin season index below 25 and dominance near 59% confirm it, liquidity isn’t leaving crypto, it’s returning to safety.

Not to cash. Not to bonds. To Bitcoin.

1 day ago | [YT] | 31

Tyler Hill Crypto

Bitcoin options open interest hit a record $50B on Deribit.

The focus isn’t just bullish calls, $100K puts are now just as crowded.

Traders are hedging downside while keeping upside exposure open.

It’s not fear, it’s structure.

The market’s evolved... volatility is the trade, not direction.

2 days ago | [YT] | 45

Tyler Hill Crypto

On-chain dollars settled $46T this year, about 2.3% of global payments.

Stablecoins aren’t side liquidity anymore; they’re becoming core market rails.

More on-chain dollars mean tighter spreads, faster settlement, and deeper BTC/ETH liquidity.

With the GENIUS Act giving legal structure, banks and processors are starting to plug in.

The next leg of crypto growth won’t come from speculation, it’ll come from infrastructure that moves dollars at internet speed.

2 days ago | [YT] | 32

Tyler Hill Crypto

Not only was Scotland one of the coolest places that I’ve ever been to, but I was also to generate some solid revenue while I was there.

I documented the whole thing, go check it out if you’re into business and lifestyle things 💪🏽

2 days ago | [YT] | 9

Tyler Hill Crypto

One of these will outperform in the next cycle:

XRP

Ethereum

Solana

Bitcoin

What’s your pick, and why? 😏

2 days ago | [YT] | 60

Tyler Hill Crypto

QUICK MARKET UPDATE:

Markets are quiet, but it’s the kind of quiet that comes before a move.

Bitcoin and ETH are range-bound ahead of Friday’s CPI print, the only U.S. data release not frozen by the shutdown.

Meanwhile, Polymarket traders see a 77% chance of a U.S.-China tariff deal by Nov 10, cutting Trump’s 100% tariff odds to just 16%.

Macro desks are calling this a “narrow-range equilibrium.”

If CPI comes in soft (0.2%), that equilibrium could flip into a fresh risk-on wave.

Calm… for now.

What do you guys think, are we in a coiled setup or just a dead market pause?

2 days ago | [YT] | 44

Tyler Hill Crypto

Bitcoin vs. Gold

October broke the “digital gold” narrative.

Gold rallied over 10% while Bitcoin dropped nearly 6%, and when gold finally corrected, BTC didn’t move in sync.

The correlation for the month sat near 0.1, basically nonexistent.

What this shows is structural, not emotional.

Gold trades in macro time, responding to rate expectations and central bank liquidity.

Bitcoin trades in positioning time, leverage resets, ETF flow, and risk rotation.

The “inflation hedge” overlap still exists, but October reminded everyone that they don’t move on the same clock.

2 days ago | [YT] | 42

Tyler Hill Crypto

Gold dropped 5% and silver 8%, their sharpest slide in years while the Dow broke records.

It’s capital rotation in real time.

Traders unwound safety trades as trade tensions eased and the dollar firmed,

shifting exposure from metals to equities and crypto.

This isn’t risk leaving the system, it’s repositioning for liquidity.

When gold cools, volatility assets like Bitcoin inherit the flow.

3 days ago | [YT] | 40