Dr.Tamitha Skov

Hi All, we have a lot going on the Sun over the past two days. First off, Region 4298 decided to join the power players and just fired an X1.1-flare. It is also currently shooting a tall tower of plasma near the west limb now. (This will be the third storm launched within the last 24 hours that could be at least partly Earth-directed.) Right now we are coming down from an R3-level radio blackout on Earth's dayside. Expect HF/VHF radio band degradation over the next hour or so, especially in the southern hemisphere and near Asian Pacific, Eastern Russia, China, India, & East Africa.
As for solar storm launches, the latest update from NOAA/SWPC shows the first storm to hit Earth starting early December 9. I have included an animation of NOAA's model prediction as well as my 3D flux rope visualization of this storm that clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core. Be advised, this storm might get deflected slightly due to an earlier eruption, but likely that will only make the solar storm move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through its core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory. Here is the link to the single 3D frame visualization so you can fly through it yourself: shorturl.at/JJEup

Now, after this storm, we have two others. Both have been launched within a few hours of each other and both are dense structures. The main structure is from Region 4299 and involves a full launch of a core filament (yes, the very one I pointed out I was concerned about launching, in my latest forecast). This main structure looks like it could give Earth a similar impact as the storm included here. (It is part of the same core filament that erupted so there are some similarities). The next storm, launching from Region 4298 as we speak, is a wild card at the moment, until we get more imagery down. I am working on a new forecast now, and I will go over all of this information in detail.

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5 days ago | [YT] | 667

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Edit post
Wow. The 2nd big eruption from Region 4299 today involves the "core filament" I talked about in my recent forecast. Only part of it erupted, but it could lead to a dense storm! Here's a link to the part of the forecast in which I air my concerns https://youtu.be/s3_mnw1MPoA?si=MRTAK...

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6 days ago | [YT] | 595

Dr.Tamitha Skov

I've been encouraged to do infographic summaries of my forecasts. Here are 2 different versions I pasted side by side so you can compare. (See both images for the full picture). l would like your honest opinions. Which of these do you prefer, straightforward and easy (left side) or futuristic and spacey (right side)?

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3 weeks ago | [YT] | 598

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Here we go! Region 4274 fires a big X1.8-flare now! HF and VHF radio is getting hammered by an R3-level radio blackout. Expect degraded radio & GPS reception over the next hour on Earth's dayside, especially the Western Hemisphere, Hawaii & West Africa (colored regions in map).

1 month ago | [YT] | 607

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Our Sun Wakes! Region 4168 fires an M4.4-flare & launches a big solar storm in the center of the Earth-strike Zone. R1-level radio blackout now. Impact likely late August 7 or early August 8. Waiting for more imagery for better predictions. #solarstorm #aurora #GPS #HFRadio

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4 months ago | [YT] | 503

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Activity ramps up due to some fast solar wind from a coronal hole entering the Earth strike zone now. Aurora Australis chasers at high latitudes could get a decent show through June 28. Expect views to be more sporadic at mid-latitudes. Considering noctilucent cloud season is also just beginning in the northern hemisphere, there may be some great chances for combination shots or timelapses, especially with the near new moon conditions. Amateur radio operators and emergency responders, expect a full forecast in time for Field Day.

5 months ago | [YT] | 417

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Bullseye! Our Sun fires a huge M8.2-flare today, giving us a high R2-level #RadioBlackout on Earth's dayside. A massive Earth-directed #solarstorm also launched and opened up the Sun like a zipper. Between the big flare from Region 4100 and the entangled filament launch that created a dark scar like a snake across the solar disk, the sheer length of this #solarstorm launch was as wide as the Sun itself. Along with the previous solar storm eruption from an earlier big flare, we have likely TWO (if not three) structures headed towards Earth. This could be the best potential for aurora viewing since October 2024.
NASA model predictions show a very fast #solarstorm travelling near 1000 km/s that could hit Earth by midday June 1. A slower storm ahead might cause a slight traffic delay, but G4-levels by June 2 are possible. This means #aurora may be visible deep into mid-latitudes. Considering we expect big flares to continue on Earth's dayside over the next few days, this means both the dayside and nightside radio bands will remain noisy, with periodic disruptions. Amateur #radio operators, #GPS/GNSS users like precision #farmers, and #aircraft/UAV pilots should plan accordingly.

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6 months ago | [YT] | 1,486

Dr.Tamitha Skov

The Earth-facing side of our Sun has been taking a bit of a nap recently, but finally did something noteworthy! Check out this gorgeous "bird wing" filament eruption today. Thus far, it looks like it will mostly miss us, but we could get the wake of the structure passing by Earth sometime May 16. The animation will take a moment to load, but it is some great eye-candy. I will have a new forecast with more details on this event out by Wednesday.

7 months ago | [YT] | 685

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Fast solar wind continues throughout this week. Strong aurora possibilities at high latitudes with sporadic shows at mid-latitudes. Radio blackouts on Earth's dayside at the R1-level level will continue and slowly increase. HF radio & GPS effects should be minor to moderate. an informal forecast is available on Patreon. Expect a new formal forecast to be available here Wednesday.

7 months ago | [YT] | 7

Dr.Tamitha Skov

Twin Filaments launch while crossing through the Earth-Strike Zone! These #solarstorms will likely travel slowly, but they are dense and thus could pack a decent punch! Still waiting for coronagraph data to inform model runs, but impact could be late April 15 or early April 16. Since YT post image limits are so ridiculous, I uploaded this "Space Weather Snapshot" animated gif twice, once so you can see the Sun and a second time so you can see the 5-Day Outlooks. I will have a new video out on Patreon within the next 24 hours and will have it posted on this channel shortly thereafter. (Loading the images might be slow on a mobile device.)

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8 months ago | [YT] | 463