Dr.Tamitha Skov
I am a space weather physicist. You may recognize me from TV shows I've done for The History Channel and The Weather Channel. I've been featured in Popular Science Magazine, and I am a regular on TWiT TV and TMRO Space News. I want to open your world to a new kind of weather that's becoming important to our daily lives.
Think of all the technology we take for granted, like GPS & traffic apps on mobile phones, drones & UAVs that fly above our heads, high-altitude airline flights, satellite internet, satellite phones, Direct TV, even SiriusXM Radio -- all of these things are directly affected by Space Weather. As we become more reliant on smart, wireless technologies, our dependence upon Space Weather grows. Even today, emergency radio communications used by disaster relief agencies like the Red Cross depend on it. I'm working to make credible Space Weather forecasts as common as the weather forecasts you see on the evening news. I would love for you to join me on this journey!
Dr.Tamitha Skov
Our Sun Wakes! Region 4168 fires an M4.4-flare & launches a big solar storm in the center of the Earth-strike Zone. R1-level radio blackout now. Impact likely late August 7 or early August 8. Waiting for more imagery for better predictions. #solarstorm #aurora #GPS #HFRadio
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 506
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Activity ramps up due to some fast solar wind from a coronal hole entering the Earth strike zone now. Aurora Australis chasers at high latitudes could get a decent show through June 28. Expect views to be more sporadic at mid-latitudes. Considering noctilucent cloud season is also just beginning in the northern hemisphere, there may be some great chances for combination shots or timelapses, especially with the near new moon conditions. Amateur radio operators and emergency responders, expect a full forecast in time for Field Day.
2 months ago | [YT] | 417
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Bullseye! Our Sun fires a huge M8.2-flare today, giving us a high R2-level #RadioBlackout on Earth's dayside. A massive Earth-directed #solarstorm also launched and opened up the Sun like a zipper. Between the big flare from Region 4100 and the entangled filament launch that created a dark scar like a snake across the solar disk, the sheer length of this #solarstorm launch was as wide as the Sun itself. Along with the previous solar storm eruption from an earlier big flare, we have likely TWO (if not three) structures headed towards Earth. This could be the best potential for aurora viewing since October 2024.
NASA model predictions show a very fast #solarstorm travelling near 1000 km/s that could hit Earth by midday June 1. A slower storm ahead might cause a slight traffic delay, but G4-levels by June 2 are possible. This means #aurora may be visible deep into mid-latitudes. Considering we expect big flares to continue on Earth's dayside over the next few days, this means both the dayside and nightside radio bands will remain noisy, with periodic disruptions. Amateur #radio operators, #GPS/GNSS users like precision #farmers, and #aircraft/UAV pilots should plan accordingly.
2 months ago | [YT] | 1,488
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
The Earth-facing side of our Sun has been taking a bit of a nap recently, but finally did something noteworthy! Check out this gorgeous "bird wing" filament eruption today. Thus far, it looks like it will mostly miss us, but we could get the wake of the structure passing by Earth sometime May 16. The animation will take a moment to load, but it is some great eye-candy. I will have a new forecast with more details on this event out by Wednesday.
3 months ago | [YT] | 685
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Fast solar wind continues throughout this week. Strong aurora possibilities at high latitudes with sporadic shows at mid-latitudes. Radio blackouts on Earth's dayside at the R1-level level will continue and slowly increase. HF radio & GPS effects should be minor to moderate. an informal forecast is available on Patreon. Expect a new formal forecast to be available here Wednesday.
4 months ago | [YT] | 7
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Twin Filaments launch while crossing through the Earth-Strike Zone! These #solarstorms will likely travel slowly, but they are dense and thus could pack a decent punch! Still waiting for coronagraph data to inform model runs, but impact could be late April 15 or early April 16. Since YT post image limits are so ridiculous, I uploaded this "Space Weather Snapshot" animated gif twice, once so you can see the Sun and a second time so you can see the 5-Day Outlooks. I will have a new video out on Patreon within the next 24 hours and will have it posted on this channel shortly thereafter. (Loading the images might be slow on a mobile device.)
4 months ago | [YT] | 463
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
The massive eruption today near Region 4046 may have been a Two-For-One! Although X-flares are known to come with large #solarstorm launches, this one was particularly exceptional. Here is why (A thread🧵). First, the eruption was spectacularly energetic and extremely dense, as seen in this SUVI 304-195-171 composite (first image).
Upon closer inspection, it's clear the eruption dynamics were complex. A snake-like filament channel can be seen partially encircling Region 4046, with a lot of prominence material overhanging the source region just prior to the X-flare. Post eruption, this material has vanished (second and third images).
The added material meant the erupting #solarstorm was comprised of material from the eruption of Region 4046 AND a nearby filament! This is why it was so impressive. It also explains why the X-flare only caused a minor #RadioBlackout of the HF radio bands at Earth (fourth image).
This added material might also explain why the blast wave shown in imagery from @HaloCME (on TwiX) was limited to the Sun's limbs. A large portion of the material during the eruption might have originated in a portion of the filament hidden from view, behind the East limb of the Sun (fifth image).
Ultimately, whether this same filament channel refills again over the next week is a big question. If it does, it is very possible we could see another big #solarstorm launch. But this time, Region 4046 may be crossing through the Earth-Strike Zone. Guaranteed we'll be watching. I'm working on a forecast now that will go over this eruption, and the potential for more, in detail.
5 months ago | [YT] | 1,412
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Region 3947 launches what looks to be an Earth-directed #solarstorm during an M4.8-flare! It is too early to tell without seeing coronagraph images, but the dimming regions around the eruption look promising (see the dark regions developing in the animation below). I am working on a new forecast now that will have these details and more. Stay tuned!
7 months ago | [YT] | 889
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Just a quick post to say the solar storm has arrived! It is still very early, but the storm looks moderately strong & fast thus far. I'll be honest, it doesnt look as strong as I had expected to see from the Solar Orbiter data. But perhaps that is due to SolO being about 13 degrees to the East of Earth. Then again, it is too early to really know what the bulk of this storm is going to look like. Right now, the magnetic field is wagging along the north-south direction, so substorms are beginning to build. This means aurora shows will remain sporadic for now. Amateur radio operators & GPS users should expect sporadic, but reasonably mild issues on Earth's nightside over the next few hours to start. We shall see if the storm strengthens (or weakens) over time. I will be sure to keep you all updated.
10 months ago | [YT] | 523
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Dr.Tamitha Skov
Since all of that, Ive been watching our temporary "long-range upstream monitor" Solar Orbiter, for any sign of the storm's arrival. It has in fact, arrived and it looks like it is going to be much stronger than predicted! From the magnetic field observations (see red boxed area in the magnetic field plot), the magnetic structure of the storm has either rotated slightly or SolO is hitting the "bent" part of the structure that has the solar slinky tilted on its side. We now know the structure will likely have a "SWN" flux rope configuration once it hits Earth. If conditions hold, this means #aurora will build fast when the storm hits and stay strong for about the first 6 hours or so (throughout the magnetosheath and the early part of the solar storm core). Then the field will likely flip north, and the storm will no longer be a strong aurora producer at mid-latitudes. In a nutshell, what all this means is that NOAA and NASA have underpredicted the impact of this coming storm. It could easily be a G3-level or higher, *IF* the observations from Solar Orbiter are any indication. Also, this storm will arrive between early to midday October 28 UTC time. After I posted this graphic on TwiX, Ive now heard that the MetOffice has upped its warnings to a G3-level and NOAA has upped its warnings to a G2-level. I am grateful they are also monitoring Solar Orbiter data!
Of course, we do need to be aware that SolO is 13° to the east of Earth, so there may still be an orientation change between that spacecraft and us. Let's hope the signature at SolO for this solar storm is a good proxy.
10 months ago | [YT] | 275
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