Hi All, we have a lot going on the Sun over the past two days. First off, Region 4298 decided to join the power players and just fired an X1.1-flare. It is also currently shooting a tall tower of plasma near the west limb now. (This will be the third storm launched within the last 24 hours that could be at least partly Earth-directed.) Right now we are coming down from an R3-level radio blackout on Earth's dayside. Expect HF/VHF radio band degradation over the next hour or so, especially in the southern hemisphere and near Asian Pacific, Eastern Russia, China, India, & East Africa. As for solar storm launches, the latest update from NOAA/SWPC shows the first storm to hit Earth starting early December 9. I have included an animation of NOAA's model prediction as well as my 3D flux rope visualization of this storm that clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core. Be advised, this storm might get deflected slightly due to an earlier eruption, but likely that will only make the solar storm move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through its core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory. Here is the link to the single 3D frame visualization so you can fly through it yourself: shorturl.at/JJEup
Now, after this storm, we have two others. Both have been launched within a few hours of each other and both are dense structures. The main structure is from Region 4299 and involves a full launch of a core filament (yes, the very one I pointed out I was concerned about launching, in my latest forecast). This main structure looks like it could give Earth a similar impact as the storm included here. (It is part of the same core filament that erupted so there are some similarities). The next storm, launching from Region 4298 as we speak, is a wild card at the moment, until we get more imagery down. I am working on a new forecast now, and I will go over all of this information in detail.
Dr.Tamitha Skov
Hi All, we have a lot going on the Sun over the past two days. First off, Region 4298 decided to join the power players and just fired an X1.1-flare. It is also currently shooting a tall tower of plasma near the west limb now. (This will be the third storm launched within the last 24 hours that could be at least partly Earth-directed.) Right now we are coming down from an R3-level radio blackout on Earth's dayside. Expect HF/VHF radio band degradation over the next hour or so, especially in the southern hemisphere and near Asian Pacific, Eastern Russia, China, India, & East Africa.
As for solar storm launches, the latest update from NOAA/SWPC shows the first storm to hit Earth starting early December 9. I have included an animation of NOAA's model prediction as well as my 3D flux rope visualization of this storm that clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core. Be advised, this storm might get deflected slightly due to an earlier eruption, but likely that will only make the solar storm move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through its core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory. Here is the link to the single 3D frame visualization so you can fly through it yourself: shorturl.at/JJEup
Now, after this storm, we have two others. Both have been launched within a few hours of each other and both are dense structures. The main structure is from Region 4299 and involves a full launch of a core filament (yes, the very one I pointed out I was concerned about launching, in my latest forecast). This main structure looks like it could give Earth a similar impact as the storm included here. (It is part of the same core filament that erupted so there are some similarities). The next storm, launching from Region 4298 as we speak, is a wild card at the moment, until we get more imagery down. I am working on a new forecast now, and I will go over all of this information in detail.
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 672