Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello! For all of my weather viewers, the 30%/enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for Monday, April 28th, 2025, has expanded to include not only more of Iowa (even for areas like the Quad Cities), but also areas like far eastern Kansas, parts of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois. A 15%/slight risk does extend as far east as both peninsulas of Michigan and as far north as the Canadian border and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Based on what the CSU-MLP tools and other sources (like Pivotal Weather and the National Weather Service (NWS)) are telling me, I would not be surprised to see things worsen to the point of the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posting a Day 1 or 2 moderate risk for severe thunderstorms getting posted for parts of Eastern Iowa, Southwestern Wisconsin, and Southeastern Minnesota, although the SPC is maintaining an enhanced risk for now.

All hazards are on the table at this point. All indications (moderate-strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for storms) suggest a significant severe weather event is looking increasingly likely for Monday, and it could come in one or more rounds. The NWS SPC says the following:
"A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025]. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas."

The aforementioned source adds the following: "The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025] will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes."

Credits:
Colorado State University for Image 1.
Pivotal Weather for Image 2.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (NWS SPC) for the Day 4 outlook synopsis.
Many other users (particularly‪@CentralIowaWX‬) for the original idea.

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1 week ago | [YT] | 0

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello!

For all of my weather viewers: I am currently in an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for Monday, 04/28/2025. At this point, all hazards (tornadoes, large hailstones, and high wind gusts) appear possible.

The Colorado State University Machine Learning Severe Probability Tool is showing concerningly high probabilities for severe weather over almost all of Iowa (maximum probability is 51%, and that is over parts of southern Iowa). If there is a Moderate Risk outlook for severe weather over similar areas, I would not be surprised (I would be just as unsurprised if the severe weather risk ended up decreasing).

However, things can and will change since this is 5 days out from today (plenty of time!). Once a Day 2 or 3 outlook is out, I will try to make a video on it if I can, but there are no guarantees for me regarding YouTube videos since I have college obligations to attend to (like homework to do and exams to study for & take).

Image credits: Pivotal Weather, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, and Colorado State University - Machine Learning Severe Probability Tool).

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2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello viewers! This is your good friend, Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025.

For my weather and EAS viewers: I am currently monitoring the potential for severe weather in & near the state of Iowa, as well as surrounding parts of the Midwestern & Central United States, around midweek.

First image: Day 3 (Tuesday, 04/01/2025) severe weather predictions from Colorado State University's Machine Learning Probabilities (MLP) tool for severe weather. The MLP tool does not show any severe weather probabilities over the northeastern ⅓ or so of Iowa. This is not in line with what the Storm Prediction Center is showing, which is a 15% non-hatched severe weather probability (slight risk) for Tuesday (no, this is not an early April Fool's Day joke!). However, there is still some time (about a couple of days) for Tuesday's severe weather potential to change considerably. According to the MLP severe weather probability tools from Colorado State University, the highest aggregate severe weather probability for Tuesday is 34.9%, which translates to an Enhanced (Level 3/5) Risk of severe weather, over parts of the Oklahoma and Texas border region (i.e., the Eastern Red River).

What does this mean for Iowa? Severe thunderstorms, primarily containing large to very large hailstones (i.e., quarter sized to golf ball sized, or perhaps even larger) are possible on Tuesday (04/01/2025). Depending on the area, damaging wind gusts could also develop.

Second image: Day 4 (Wednesday, 04/02/2025) severe weather predictions from Colorado State University's MLP tool for severe weather. Despite ongoing or early-developing thunderstorm activity from Wisconsin southwestward to Northeastern Texas, I am still eyeing Wednesday for the greatest severe weather potential between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday is more concerning, and may feature an "all-hazards" severe weather risk, meaning tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts are all on the table at this juncture. However, this is only preliminary and there is still some time (about three days) for Wednesday's severe weather potential to change considerably. According to the MLP severe weather probability tools from Colorado State University, the highest severe weather probability for Wednesday is a whopping 61.0%, which would translate to a Day 3 Moderate Risk (or even a Day 1 or 2 High Risk), over parts of far southwestern Tennessee and parts of far northeastern Arkansas.

What does this mean for Iowa? A higher severe weather threat could develop, and this one could potentially be significant. Too far out to determine primary hazards at this time, but all hazards (i.e., tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts) appear to be on the table

Note: Both probability maps are as of Sunday morning, 03/30/2025. I do not own the attached images, which come from Colorado State University's Machine Learning Probabilities (MLP) website.

Feel free to comment as well!

All the best, your good friend, Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

‪@keeganmclaughlin8312‬ ‪@IowaPLWXEASProdExtras‬ ‪@darfieldzone5309‬ ‪@SouthernPennsylvaniaWX‬ ‪@iowaacproductions698‬ ‪@CentralIowaWX‬

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1 month ago | [YT] | 0

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello!

Quick Update (at 7:45 AM CDT on Friday 03/14/2025): My area now has a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms for today. Damaging wind gusts, potentially greater than 70 MPH and a few tornadoes are the main hazards. Large hail is also possible; hailstones potentially greater than golf ball sized (1.75" diameter) is possible along/south of I-80 in Iowa and Illinois. First image credit goes to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in the Quad Cities, Iowa/Illinois.

Also, Happy Pi Day (03/14). Second image credit goes to Pillsbury.

Best, Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

‪@keeganmclaughlin8312‬ ‪@IowaPLWXEASProdExtras‬ ‪@darfieldzone5309‬ ‪@SouthernPennsylvaniaWX‬ ‪@CentralIowaWX‬ ‪@iowaacproductions698‬ ‪@iowaacproductions698‬

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1 month ago | [YT] | 1

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello, everyone! East-Central Iowa is currently in an Enhanced Risk, or level 3 of 5, for severe thunderstorms for tomorrow (Friday, 03/14/2025). Hazards include damaging wind gusts (30% hatched risk - potential for ≥75 MPH thunderstorm winds), followed by a few tornadoes (5% risk), and large hail (15% hatched risk - potential for ≥2 inch diameter hail). Image credit Pivotal Weather - Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlooks (Day 2).

Areas well to the south and east of me (as far north as southeastern Iowa and most of Illinois) are in a Moderate Risk, or level 4 of 5, for severe thunderstorms for that same day.

Timing for severe weather in my area is 5 PM to 11 PM (CDT) Friday. Thunderstorms will be moving very fast (e.g., as fast as highway speeds) providing little time to react.

If the severe weather threat materializes as (or is even worse than) currently forecast, then I will likely make a video about it, and I will likely record weather alerts as well.

Best, Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

‪@IowaPLWXEASProdExtras‬ ‪@keeganmclaughlin8312‬ ‪@SouthernPennsylvaniaWX‬ ‪@CentralIowaWX‬ ‪@iowaacproductions698‬ ‪@darfieldzone5309‬

1 month ago | [YT] | 1

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

[Edited because of a typo in the initial poll] I have not recorded weather alerts in a while, or even uploaded any to YouTube as of late. Should I record weather alerts on 03/14/2025, in spite of the potential severe weather event that day?

[Please read the pinned comment before voting/commenting]

Credit: Many weather and EAS users for the idea.

1 month ago | [YT] | 1

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Hello all! Sorry I wasn't active much lately, it was because of college and other life events. Hopefully you understand.

[Iowa's first severe weather threat of 2025]
15% severe thunderstorm probabilities have been added to the Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valley/Midwest regions of the Continental United States for March 14, 2025 (Day 6, slight risk, see first image). I am worried that this first severe weather event of 2025 may resemble March 31, 2023, all over again. That day saw one large moderate and two (yes, two) small tornado driven, bimodal high risk areas of severe weather for parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi River Valley and Midwest areas (see fourth image). First image credit goes to the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Fourth image credit goes to CIProud.com.

This is part of a larger winter storm system slated to affect the Central and Eastern Continental United States, bringing snow and fire danger to parts of the American Rockies and the Southwestern Continental United States. Second and third image credits go to AccuWeather.

Because of college classes and obligations, I will likely not be able to record weather alerts on that day, but there is still a small chance that it may happen.

I will ask you whether I should record weather alerts that day in a separate poll.

Best, Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

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2 months ago | [YT] | 0

Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025

Happy New Year!!

Here's to a great 2025! 🎊 🎊

4 months ago | [YT] | 0