Hello! For all of my weather viewers, the 30%/enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for Monday, April 28th, 2025, has expanded to include not only more of Iowa (even for areas like the Quad Cities), but also areas like far eastern Kansas, parts of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois. A 15%/slight risk does extend as far east as both peninsulas of Michigan and as far north as the Canadian border and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Based on what the CSU-MLP tools and other sources (like Pivotal Weather and the National Weather Service (NWS)) are telling me, I would not be surprised to see things worsen to the point of the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posting a Day 1 or 2 moderate risk for severe thunderstorms getting posted for parts of Eastern Iowa, Southwestern Wisconsin, and Southeastern Minnesota, although the SPC is maintaining an enhanced risk for now.
All hazards are on the table at this point. All indications (moderate-strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for storms) suggest a significant severe weather event is looking increasingly likely for Monday, and it could come in one or more rounds. The NWS SPC says the following: "A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025]. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas."
The aforementioned source adds the following: "The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025] will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes."
Credits: Colorado State University for Image 1. Pivotal Weather for Image 2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (NWS SPC) for the Day 4 outlook synopsis. Many other users (particularly@CentralIowaWX) for the original idea.
Iowa Plumbing, Weather & EAS Productions 2025
Hello! For all of my weather viewers, the 30%/enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for Monday, April 28th, 2025, has expanded to include not only more of Iowa (even for areas like the Quad Cities), but also areas like far eastern Kansas, parts of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois. A 15%/slight risk does extend as far east as both peninsulas of Michigan and as far north as the Canadian border and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Based on what the CSU-MLP tools and other sources (like Pivotal Weather and the National Weather Service (NWS)) are telling me, I would not be surprised to see things worsen to the point of the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posting a Day 1 or 2 moderate risk for severe thunderstorms getting posted for parts of Eastern Iowa, Southwestern Wisconsin, and Southeastern Minnesota, although the SPC is maintaining an enhanced risk for now.
All hazards are on the table at this point. All indications (moderate-strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for storms) suggest a significant severe weather event is looking increasingly likely for Monday, and it could come in one or more rounds. The NWS SPC says the following:
"A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025]. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas."
The aforementioned source adds the following: "The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday [Day 4/April 28, 2025] will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes."
Credits:
Colorado State University for Image 1.
Pivotal Weather for Image 2.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (NWS SPC) for the Day 4 outlook synopsis.
Many other users (particularly@CentralIowaWX) for the original idea.
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0