Alexander Taleb: Why Do Planes Crash?

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 20 (The Real World Risk Summer School, 2025)

Discussion with Pierre Zalloua on 'Ancestors'

MINI LECTURE 19 - Conditional Probability & A Fallacy in Cardiology Concerning LDL

Does the Ketogenic Diet Work for Brain Cancer? Finding Signal in a Small Sample.

The IQ debate, a conclusion

Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 4

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 3

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 2

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 1

STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024

How to bluff when you don't know what you are talking about.

MINI LECTURE 18: How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations

MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

MINI LECTURE 16: On the Absurdity of Standard Genetics Reports.

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop)

MINI LECTURE 15 - Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity.

MINI TUTORIAL: How to look at risk ratios & deal with disinformation: Saturated Fats & Nina Teicholz

A medical paper that does not replicate. Why?

No, Covid is not an "old" person's problem.

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 2: We don't use Black-Scholes, the simpler derivation vindicating Bachelier.

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 1: Deriving Black-Sholes via Itô's lemma (the dynamic hedging approach)

Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness

QUANT FINANCE 1 - Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1

Conversation with Yaneer on Covid with mild disagreements.

MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical).

MINI LECTURE 13b - Technical Appendix. How to fix the problem of power laws with compact support.

MINI LECTURE 13 - Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical

MINI LECTURE 12: How to Look at the Risks of Covid Vaccines

MINI LESSON 11b: Drawdowns and Logs

MINI LESSON 11: Path dependence in 2 ½ minutes

MINI LESSON 10: Simpson's Paradox & Its Exploitation by Covid Sociopaths in 3 ½ min.

Supply Chain: The Convexity in 2 ½ minutes.

MINI LESSON 9c: Detecting Quackery in a Psychology Paper

MIN-LESSON 9b: 2 min technical comments for Mini Lesson 9.

MINI-LESSON 9: Evidence Based Science & Mistakes in Particularizing the General (Simplified)

Comments on the "Bitcoin Black Paper" (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)

MIN-LESSON 8b: (Power Laws) Q& A

MINI-LESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)

MINI LESSON 7: P-Values and P-Value Hacking: a simplified lecture.

MINI-LESSON 6: Fooled by Metrics (Correlation)

The Gates Foundation is Repeating the Errors of Mao

MINI-LESSON 5: Correlation, the intuition. Doesn't mean what people usually think it means.

MINI-LESSON 4: CLT, The Central Limit Theorem, a nontechnical presentation.

MINI-LESSON 3: The Law of Large Numbers. A very intuitive introduction.

MINI-LESSON 2: Fat Tails, a Very, Very Introductory Presentation.

MINI-LESSON 1: Breaking down intuitively the concept of standard deviation. Why pple don't get it.

How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka

Fake Regression by psychologists

Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Ellipticality and Portfolios: Informal conversation with Raphael Douady (in French)

Ellipticality (Technical)

Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo

What You See and Don't See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution.

Never use single point estimates for pandemics

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben

MINI LECTURE 8c: A simple tricks to see the effect of power laws

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)