TradeWith Maras

📈Gold Price Prediction for 2025
Gold is currently at an all-time high of $3,048 per ounce, driven by Fed rate expectations, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks. Based on available data, here’s a forecast for gold in 2025:

🟢Bullish Case (Gold Above $3,200 - $3,500)
Factors Supporting Higher Prices:
✔️ Fed Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates 2–3 times, the dollar will weaken, making gold more attractive.
✔️ Inflation Persistence: If inflation remains above 2.5%, gold will continue to act as a hedge.
✔️ Geopolitical Uncertainty: Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, or new trade tensions could push gold even higher.
✔️ Central Bank Demand: China, India, and other emerging markets continue stockpiling gold, keeping demand strong.
✔️ Recession Fears: If U.S. economic growth slows, investors may flee to gold as a safe-haven asset.

Price Targets:
🔹 Mid-Year 2025: $3,200 - $3,400
🔹 End of 2025: $3,500+ if macro conditions remain favorable

🔴Bearish Case (Gold Falls to $2,500 - $2,700)
Risks to Gold’s Rally:
❌ Fed Delays Rate Cuts: If inflation unexpectedly drops, the Fed might hold rates steady longer, making gold less attractive.
❌ Strong U.S. Dollar: A rebound in the dollar (DXY index rising) could put downward pressure on gold.
❌ Reduced Global Uncertainty: If geopolitical risks subside, safe-haven demand may decrease.
❌ Profit-Taking & Corrections: After such a big rally, investors may sell gold to take profits, causing a pullback.

Price Targets:
🔹 Mid-Year 2025: $2,700 - $2,900 (if the Fed remains hawkish)
🔹 End of 2025: $2,500 - $2,700 (in case of strong U.S. recovery)

🎯My Base Case Prediction (Most Likely Scenario)
📊 Gold will trade in the range of $2,800 - $3,400 for most of 2025.

The Fed will likely cut rates twice (bullish for gold).
Inflation will remain slightly elevated (positive for gold).
Gold might hit $3,500+ if geopolitical risks escalate but could correct to $2,700 if conditions stabilize.

⚠️Trading & Investing Strategy
If gold dips to $2,800 - $2,900, it could be a good buying opportunity.
If gold rallies past $3,500, be cautious of overbought conditions.

1 month ago | [YT] | 1

TradeWith Maras

🚨6 Fundamental Reasons Why Gold is Bullish


➡️1. Inflation Hedge 🏦🔥
Gold is historically used as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making hard assets like gold more attractive. With recent CPI reports (such as today’s UK inflation at 3.0%), investors seek gold to preserve their wealth.

➡️2. Federal Reserve Rate Policy 📉💰
The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in gold prices. If the Fed signals rate cuts or pauses, it lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Lower rates also weaken the US dollar, further supporting gold prices. The market expects possible rate cuts in 2025, fueling the current bullish sentiment.

➡️3. Weakening US Dollar 💵⬇️
Gold is priced in USD, so when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand. If the Federal Reserve shifts toward a dovish stance, the dollar is likely to decline, further pushing gold higher.

➡️4. Geopolitical Uncertainty 🌎⚠️
Gold thrives during global instability. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East tensions, US-China trade risks, and economic slowdowns in major economies increase safe-haven demand for gold. Uncertainty in the global financial system makes gold an attractive hedge against systemic risks.

➡️5. Central Bank Buying 🏛📊
Central banks, especially in China, Russia, and India, have been accumulating gold reserves at a record pace. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been aggressively buying gold to diversify away from the US dollar, increasing long-term demand.

➡️6. Stock Market Volatility 📉⚡️
When equity markets become unstable, investors shift to safe-haven assets like gold. Concerns over potential stock market corrections or economic downturns add to gold's bullish momentum. If US stock markets face turbulence, gold will likely benefit.

🔰Conclusion:
Gold is bullish due to a perfect storm of inflation, Fed policies, a weakening dollar, geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and market uncertainty. If these trends continue, gold could see further upside in the coming months.

1 month ago | [YT] | 0

TradeWith Maras

🚨Only 9 Hours Until Major News: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision🚨

🔰Today, we are likely to witness the first interest rate cut in four years, with the Federal Reserve poised to make a significant decision. The big question on everyone's mind, and the source of much debate, is: By how much will the Fed cut rates? Will it be a modest 0.25 bps, or will they go for a larger 0.50 bps reduction?

🔰Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, current probabilities indicate a 61% chance of a 0.50 bps cut, while 39% expect a 0.25 bps cut. However, predictions from Forex Factory and Investing.com suggest a 0.25 bps rate cut as the more likely scenario. The real question now is: How can we profit from this?

🔰It’s undeniable that this decision will shake up the markets, creating significant volatility and volume—an opportunity traders have been waiting for. But how do we determine the direction of key assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, or the Nasdaq?

➡️Let me share my analysis, and feel free to agree or disagree in the comments.

📈Current U.S. Economic Snapshot:
Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is sitting at 2.5%, while Core Inflation (Core CPI) remains at a "sticky" 3.2%.
The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, which, from a historical perspective, is within a normal range—nothing alarming.
GDP growth remains stable at 3%, showing signs of strength, especially when compared to the Eurozone, which is hovering around 0.2%.
In short, the U.S. economy continues to show signs of stability and strength.

📈Conclusion:
Based on my analysis, there is low probability that we will see a 0.50% rate cut today. I believe a 0.25 bps cut is the most likely outcome. I am 90% confident in a 0.25% cut, 8% for a 0.50% cut, and only 2% for no rate cut at all.

💵Trading Strategy:
Given that the majority is expecting a 0.50% cut, and up until recently, the CME FedWatch showed 71% probability for this scenario, it’s highly likely that this expectation is already priced into the market. Therefore, I will be looking for a sell opportunity in gold and a buy opportunity in the U.S. dollar today. While in theory, any rate cut is bullish for gold, in this situation, I will focus on selling gold due to the factors mentioned above.

7 months ago | [YT] | 0

TradeWith Maras

Currency Analysis 19.8.2024



🔰U.S. Dollar (USD)
The dollar is trading cautiously as investors await the Federal Reserve's next moves. Recent economic data has been mixed, with strong consumer spending countered by weaker housing starts. The dollar's strength is closely tied to interest rate expectations, and any hints of future rate cuts could see it weaken against major currencies​.



🔰British Pound (GBP)
The British pound remains supported by resilience in the UK economy, particularly in consumer spending and employment data. However, inflation concerns persist, with markets paying close attention to the Bank of England's future policy actions. The pound has been strong against the yen and euro, though its future will depend on ongoing economic performance​.


🔰Japanese Yen (JPY)
The yen continues to struggle due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. With inflation still below target, the central bank has maintained its dovish stance, which has kept the yen under pressure. Investors are cautious about holding the yen, especially against currencies like the dollar and pound, where higher interest rates offer better returns​.


🔰Euro (EUR)
The euro is facing headwinds from weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in Germany, where industrial production and economic sentiment have deteriorated. The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, balancing inflation concerns with the need to support growth. The euro is likely to remain range-bound until clearer economic signals emerge​.

8 months ago | [YT] | 0

TradeWith Maras

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Through our VIP group, you're guided by an unmatched duo in the industry. On one side, we have Technical Expert Maras, whose mastery of technical analysis surpasses every expected limit. Every line, every shape on the chart tells its story to him, and his precision in predicting market movements is incredible. On the other side, there's Bart, one of the most renowned macroeconomic experts in the world. His deep understanding of global economic trends provides us with invaluable insights into the broader picture, helping us understand not only what is happening but also why it is happening.

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In our VIP group, you'll not only learn how to recognize good trading opportunities but also become architects of your own financial future. Join us and let's together stride towards the pinnacle of trading success.

11 months ago | [YT] | 0

TradeWith Maras

BREAKING 🚨: Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen falls to a fresh 34-year low against the U.S. Dollar

Can we see the Intervention of BOJ this Friday?

1 year ago | [YT] | 2

TradeWith Maras

Gold reserves by country (tonnes):

🇩🇪 Germany: 3353
🇮🇹 Italy: 2452
🇫🇷 France: 2437
🇷🇺 Russia: 2333
🇨🇭 Switzerland: 1040
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 612
🇹🇷 Turkey: 540
🇵🇹 Portugal: 383
🇵🇱 Poland: 359
🇬🇧 UK: 310
🇪🇸 Spain: 282
🇦🇹 Austria: 280
🇧🇪 Belgium: 227
🇸🇪 Sweden: 126
🇬🇷 Greece: 114

1 year ago | [YT] | 3

TradeWith Maras

Bears taking a victory lap this week after being historically wrong feels bullish...

"The fact that we hadn’t had a pullback of 3% in over five months was more unusual than the fact that the S&P 500 is now down over 3% from its high"

1 year ago | [YT] | 1

TradeWith Maras

The Strongest Air Forces Of The World in 2024.

🇺🇸 United States Air Force
🇺🇸 United States Navy
🇷🇺 Russian Air Force
🇺🇸 United States Army Aviation
🇺🇸 United States Marine Corps
🇮🇳 Indian Air Force
🇨🇳 People's Liberation Army Air Force
🇯🇵 Japan Air Self-Defense Force
🇮🇱 Israeli Air Force
🇫🇷 French Air Force
🇬🇧 British Royal Air Force
🇰🇷 South Korean Air Force
🇮🇹 Italian Air Force
🇦🇺 Royal Australian Air Force
🇨🇳 People's Liberation Army Naval Air

1 year ago | [YT] | 0

TradeWith Maras

📊 G7 vs the BRICS 11: Comparison

🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 + 🇪🇬🇮🇷🇦🇪🇸🇦🇪🇹

BRICS:

44.65% of world population 👫
36.91% of world GDP (PPP)💰
44.35% of oil production.🛢️
55% of rice harvest 🌾
79% of aluminum production 🦾
38.3% industrial production 🏭
36% of the Earth’s surface 🌍

🇺🇸🇨🇦🇯🇵🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇫🇷 ( G7 )

9.66% of world population 👫
29.89% of world GDP (PPP) 💰
3.9% of oil production.🛢️
2.6% of rice harvest 🌾
1.3% of aluminum production 🦾
30.5% industrial production 🏭

1 year ago | [YT] | 1