🚨Only 9 Hours Until Major News: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision🚨
🔰Today, we are likely to witness the first interest rate cut in four years, with the Federal Reserve poised to make a significant decision. The big question on everyone's mind, and the source of much debate, is: By how much will the Fed cut rates? Will it be a modest 0.25 bps, or will they go for a larger 0.50 bps reduction?
🔰Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, current probabilities indicate a 61% chance of a 0.50 bps cut, while 39% expect a 0.25 bps cut. However, predictions from Forex Factory and Investing.com suggest a 0.25 bps rate cut as the more likely scenario. The real question now is: How can we profit from this?
🔰It’s undeniable that this decision will shake up the markets, creating significant volatility and volume—an opportunity traders have been waiting for. But how do we determine the direction of key assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, or the Nasdaq?
➡️Let me share my analysis, and feel free to agree or disagree in the comments.
📈Current U.S. Economic Snapshot: Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is sitting at 2.5%, while Core Inflation (Core CPI) remains at a "sticky" 3.2%. The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, which, from a historical perspective, is within a normal range—nothing alarming. GDP growth remains stable at 3%, showing signs of strength, especially when compared to the Eurozone, which is hovering around 0.2%. In short, the U.S. economy continues to show signs of stability and strength.
📈Conclusion: Based on my analysis, there is low probability that we will see a 0.50% rate cut today. I believe a 0.25 bps cut is the most likely outcome. I am 90% confident in a 0.25% cut, 8% for a 0.50% cut, and only 2% for no rate cut at all.
💵Trading Strategy: Given that the majority is expecting a 0.50% cut, and up until recently, the CME FedWatch showed 71% probability for this scenario, it’s highly likely that this expectation is already priced into the market. Therefore, I will be looking for a sell opportunity in gold and a buy opportunity in the U.S. dollar today. While in theory, any rate cut is bullish for gold, in this situation, I will focus on selling gold due to the factors mentioned above.
TradeWith Maras
🚨Only 9 Hours Until Major News: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision🚨
🔰Today, we are likely to witness the first interest rate cut in four years, with the Federal Reserve poised to make a significant decision. The big question on everyone's mind, and the source of much debate, is: By how much will the Fed cut rates? Will it be a modest 0.25 bps, or will they go for a larger 0.50 bps reduction?
🔰Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, current probabilities indicate a 61% chance of a 0.50 bps cut, while 39% expect a 0.25 bps cut. However, predictions from Forex Factory and Investing.com suggest a 0.25 bps rate cut as the more likely scenario. The real question now is: How can we profit from this?
🔰It’s undeniable that this decision will shake up the markets, creating significant volatility and volume—an opportunity traders have been waiting for. But how do we determine the direction of key assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, or the Nasdaq?
➡️Let me share my analysis, and feel free to agree or disagree in the comments.
📈Current U.S. Economic Snapshot:
Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is sitting at 2.5%, while Core Inflation (Core CPI) remains at a "sticky" 3.2%.
The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, which, from a historical perspective, is within a normal range—nothing alarming.
GDP growth remains stable at 3%, showing signs of strength, especially when compared to the Eurozone, which is hovering around 0.2%.
In short, the U.S. economy continues to show signs of stability and strength.
📈Conclusion:
Based on my analysis, there is low probability that we will see a 0.50% rate cut today. I believe a 0.25 bps cut is the most likely outcome. I am 90% confident in a 0.25% cut, 8% for a 0.50% cut, and only 2% for no rate cut at all.
💵Trading Strategy:
Given that the majority is expecting a 0.50% cut, and up until recently, the CME FedWatch showed 71% probability for this scenario, it’s highly likely that this expectation is already priced into the market. Therefore, I will be looking for a sell opportunity in gold and a buy opportunity in the U.S. dollar today. While in theory, any rate cut is bullish for gold, in this situation, I will focus on selling gold due to the factors mentioned above.
7 months ago | [YT] | 0