Hey guys! I'm sorry it's been a long time. As you'll know if you follow me on Twitter/X at x.com/EthanB86419472 , the April 2, 2025 severe weather event didn't work out like I expected. And this was followed by a month and a half-long period of very inactive weather, where even thunderstorms were hard to come by. However, as we head into the second half of May, things are heating back up again in a big way. An extremely unstable environment is expected to form ahead of a dry line over IL tomorrow, with an unusually strong EML and high dew points at the sfc allowing for SBCAPE as high as 3,000-4,000 J/kg, maybe even higher. With a deep occluding low over the MN area, evening amplification of a LLJ will allow 0-1km SRH to ramp up substantially, with values of 200-300 m2/s2 amid largely streamwise hodographs. Deep-layer wind shear, aided by an approaching sub-tropical jet, is likely to be supportive of supercells, and with the robust instability, rapid and significant severe weather development appears probable over portions of NE IL/northern IN later today. Capping may be an initial concern, but 500 mlb heights should start to fall as the jet streak approaches, and convergence along the dry line should allow storms to fire in IL before spreading into IN. Hazards with supercells could be substantial, including very large hail and significant tornadoes. If a more clustered storm mode is realized (especially later and closer to the dry line after dark), significant damaging winds are also probable. This is a volatile setup with some lingering uncertainties, and I'm hoping to be able to get something!
Ethan B
Hey guys! I'm sorry it's been a long time. As you'll know if you follow me on Twitter/X at x.com/EthanB86419472 , the April 2, 2025 severe weather event didn't work out like I expected. And this was followed by a month and a half-long period of very inactive weather, where even thunderstorms were hard to come by. However, as we head into the second half of May, things are heating back up again in a big way. An extremely unstable environment is expected to form ahead of a dry line over IL tomorrow, with an unusually strong EML and high dew points at the sfc allowing for SBCAPE as high as 3,000-4,000 J/kg, maybe even higher. With a deep occluding low over the MN area, evening amplification of a LLJ will allow 0-1km SRH to ramp up substantially, with values of 200-300 m2/s2 amid largely streamwise hodographs. Deep-layer wind shear, aided by an approaching sub-tropical jet, is likely to be supportive of supercells, and with the robust instability, rapid and significant severe weather development appears probable over portions of NE IL/northern IN later today. Capping may be an initial concern, but 500 mlb heights should start to fall as the jet streak approaches, and convergence along the dry line should allow storms to fire in IL before spreading into IN. Hazards with supercells could be substantial, including very large hail and significant tornadoes. If a more clustered storm mode is realized (especially later and closer to the dry line after dark), significant damaging winds are also probable. This is a volatile setup with some lingering uncertainties, and I'm hoping to be able to get something!
May 15, 2025
3:30 AM EDT
4 months ago | [YT] | 8