Yeah I don't see the basis for a lawsuit at all. She published a clearly-off result. The punishment is credibility. Addendum: Nate Silver had an excellent article on pollster "herding." Basically, pollsters were publishing 50/50 polls at a far, far higher rate than you would expect even if the true result was 50/50. Ann Selzer was one of the few pollsters brave enough to publish an outlier. And... this is why they don't do it.
9 months ago (edited) | 1
When you say ‘veteran’ it makes it sound like shes a military veteran and shes not. I know that wasnt your intention, just my initial interpretation.
9 months ago | 1
Simple. Was her poll motivated by her personal politics? Exhibit A and Exhibit B.
9 months ago | 3
"she got it wrong" That seems highly unlikely and is certainly worth testing in court. It will be interesting if she testifies about this.
9 months ago | 0
FIRE
BREAKING: FIRE will defend J. Ann Selzer, the veteran pollster whose last poll before the 2024 election incorrectly predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, against a baseless lawsuit by President-elect Donald Trump that threatens Americans’ First Amendment rights.
Trump’s lawsuit claims Selzer’s poll constitutes “consumer fraud.” That is not what those words mean. Consumer fraud laws are about the scam artist who rolls back the odometer on a used car, not a newspaper pollster whose prediction of an election winner doesn’t pan out.
Selzer used the same methodology as when she previously called the state for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but this time she got it wrong. After Election Day, she released the full results of her telephone survey along with the weighting system used to interpret the data.
Selzer adds: “The response to a mismatch between my final poll and the decisions Iowa voters made should be thoughtful analysis and introspection. I should be devoting my time to that and not to a vengeful lawsuit from someone with enormous power and assets.”
This is America. No one should be afraid to predict the outcome of an election. That’s why we refuse to let Donald Trump abuse the legal system to punish Selzer for speech he dislikes.
www.thefire.org/news/fire-defend-veteran-pollster-…
9 months ago | [YT] | 36