ERIN VS. IRMA | I’ve seen a lot of worry on social media about Erin possibly defying the turn away from Florida like Irma did in 2017. I want to calm some of that anxiety.
1. Models are better now. (Highlights importance of continued weather research)
2. While most ensembles were out to sea with Irma (top photo), a handful of them did capture the brush with Cuba and Southwest Florida strike.
While that chance was low early on in Irma’s life…it was NEVER zero.
In the case Erin (bottom) only one ensemble gets close to a Florida landfall.
The wild model runs you may have seen were from the GFS more than 10 days out which includes no skill and also the Euro AI model. It’s CLEAR the AI models need more time.
Ensembles are the best thing to look at this far out. Cause it does take into account wild cards like Irma’s SW Florida landfall into account. There has been NO evidence in the ensembles if Erin pulling an Irma.
I wrote a story that goes more in depth. Share with your friends because that worry is all over the place.
Erin should turn well before Florida. Any entity with an arrow pointed toward Florida without any evidence shouldn’t be trusted. Watching for the northern Caribbean and Bermuda. Could have a close shave with the Carolina coast. - Jonathan
JustWeather
ERIN VS. IRMA | I’ve seen a lot of worry on social media about Erin possibly defying the turn away from Florida like Irma did in 2017. I want to calm some of that anxiety.
1. Models are better now. (Highlights importance of continued weather research)
2. While most ensembles were out to sea with Irma (top photo), a handful of them did capture the brush with Cuba and Southwest Florida strike.
While that chance was low early on in Irma’s life…it was NEVER zero.
In the case Erin (bottom) only one ensemble gets close to a Florida landfall.
The wild model runs you may have seen were from the GFS more than 10 days out which includes no skill and also the Euro AI model. It’s CLEAR the AI models need more time.
Ensembles are the best thing to look at this far out. Cause it does take into account wild cards like Irma’s SW Florida landfall into account. There has been NO evidence in the ensembles if Erin pulling an Irma.
I wrote a story that goes more in depth. Share with your friends because that worry is all over the place.
Erin should turn well before Florida. Any entity with an arrow pointed toward Florida without any evidence shouldn’t be trusted. Watching for the northern Caribbean and Bermuda. Could have a close shave with the Carolina coast. - Jonathan
1 month ago | [YT] | 101