The 18Z icon model is shocking. Way West near the Bahamas, 120 hours out.
1 month ago | 3
Thanks Jonathan. I can feel all the weather hype channels kind of sad that there is so much model agreement. It definitely needs to be watched still especially for the east coast and dear god, Bermuda is fully in the envelope on nearly every platform. Wait till everyone starts hyping that next wave behind it. I know people are worried, I get it. These long trackers don’t give me the same anxiety as CAG related systems. They go from nothing to 3 days out major hurricane landfall. Here in Tampa we have been in the cone of a CAG related major storm 3 times in two years and we had serious impacts from two indirect landfalls. Not sure people comprehend how devastating a major hurricane landfall in Pinellas county will be. Most people have no idea the likely environmental catastrophe that would ensue from the gyp stacks blowing out and the port going entirely underwater. I don’t mean to be grim, but there is enough to worry about. No need for people to wish cast Erin. Thanks for what you do. You and Naz are the bar by which I judge all weather content.
1 month ago (edited) | 2
That's the problem with these online supposed meteorologists they grab the worst case scenario or model and just run with it for their clicks and views while simultaneously scaring the heck out of people
1 month ago | 4
Yes, models are better now but they were designed by humans which means they are not perfect and still can be flawed. I've been seeing the path of Erin going back in fourth. It started out possibly going to the Gulf and possibly to the Carolinas and then possibly skirting the coast and maybe the Carolinas with a slight chance going to Gulf and then all of a sudden it's going to be a fish storm or go right over or the West of Bermuda. Last night I heard it shifted back West again! I don't know what to believe but just because a model created by humans told me it's going to curve out to sea or close call with Bermuda doesn't mean I'm going to believe it. Sometimes I feel like too much stock goes into these models, what ever happened to the old fashioned weather forecaster? Nowadays if the meteorologists get it wrong, then they can just blame it on the models.
1 month ago | 4
We had a hurricane Erin make landfall at the space coast in the nineties. I remember that. Praying that this one stays offshore.
1 month ago | 1
I don’t understand why it’s making a turn. We have the Bermuda high but there is no other high expected on the East Coast of the US when it makes the turn. I may be wrong but don’t storms usually makes turns like this because they are sandwiched between two highs and splitting the difference. Without that high on the US East Coast, what is stopping the storm from continuing West?
1 month ago | 3
I just looked at the newest Euro. Just ran 12ZEC fast euro gets awfully close to North Carolina. The Euro has trended more West on this run.
1 month ago | 1
If the high pressure expands bigger and longer wouldn’t that keep it moving west? Also if it gets pulled south more would that effect the curve or will it curve abruptly like dorian did?
1 month ago | 1
That area near PR and the islands along the Northeast corner of the Caribbean is "Abairs box" I could be typing it wrong. If the track follows along within the proximity in that box it's more likely to track west, that general rule has been right more than its been wrong.
1 month ago | 0
What about this solar forcing from the incoming coronal hole’s high speed low density wind affecting the trough that’s supposed to steer it north?
1 month ago | 0
Today’s Charley’s anniversary and no one reckoned it. I’m disgusted in addition to Erin not pulling an Irma. Like hello Erinnnnn, with all due respect, who is over there? Florida says hey. The east, south, and west side! 🥰 :
1 month ago | 0
People in Houston are still responding to the meteorologist posts saying they are lying and it's coming straight to us .. even though it's 100% obvious a 12 year old can tell it isn't.
1 month ago | 0
Why that comparison? Irma ruined St.Maarten, and this has me on eggshells. I have never seen models shift around on a storm this much. Usually, by now, we know hey, this is the move, and it's been made this thing is
1 month ago | 0
JustWeather
ERIN VS. IRMA | I’ve seen a lot of worry on social media about Erin possibly defying the turn away from Florida like Irma did in 2017. I want to calm some of that anxiety.
1. Models are better now. (Highlights importance of continued weather research)
2. While most ensembles were out to sea with Irma (top photo), a handful of them did capture the brush with Cuba and Southwest Florida strike.
While that chance was low early on in Irma’s life…it was NEVER zero.
In the case Erin (bottom) only one ensemble gets close to a Florida landfall.
The wild model runs you may have seen were from the GFS more than 10 days out which includes no skill and also the Euro AI model. It’s CLEAR the AI models need more time.
Ensembles are the best thing to look at this far out. Cause it does take into account wild cards like Irma’s SW Florida landfall into account. There has been NO evidence in the ensembles if Erin pulling an Irma.
I wrote a story that goes more in depth. Share with your friends because that worry is all over the place.
Erin should turn well before Florida. Any entity with an arrow pointed toward Florida without any evidence shouldn’t be trusted. Watching for the northern Caribbean and Bermuda. Could have a close shave with the Carolina coast. - Jonathan
1 month ago | [YT] | 101