POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN TROPICS NEXT WEEK - DONT WORRY JUST YETđź‘€
Looking like 3 distinct scenarios are starting to emerge for our tropical system next week. 2 out of 3 involve no U.S. impact, but one definitely does. Here’s the breakdown:
đźź Scenario 1: Central America The system stays weak in the eastern Caribbean and drifts west as a disorganized cluster of showers and storms. It eventually buries itself in Central America. Flooding would likely be the main concern there, assuming it organizes at all. There would be NO US impacts here.
🟣Scenario 2: US / Gulf Coast This is the worst-case setup for the U.S. The system stays weak early on, then organizes in the central and western Caribbean. Because it stays farther south, it misses the “ticket” to curve out to sea and lingers in the Caribbean, potentially strengthening into a tropical storm or hurricane. Eventually, another trough could pull it northeast toward the U.S., making a close call or landfall hard to avoid. Let’s hope models trend away from this one.
🟢Scenario 3: Hispaniola / Out to Sea The system organizes quickly in the eastern Caribbean, gains latitude, and gets picked up by the trough moving through the U.S. around October 24. That would likely send it out to sea like the others this season. In this case, Hispaniola and Cuba could still see flooding rain, wind, and surge depending on the storm’s strength.
Ensembles haven’t leaned toward any of these outcomes yet, but that should start to change in the next few days.
Anyone with interests in the Gulf or Caribbean should monitor this over the next week. I'll post a video update on this tomorrow, so LOOK OUT FOR THAT
Storm Front Freaks Network with StormCat5
POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN TROPICS NEXT WEEK - DONT WORRY JUST YETđź‘€
Looking like 3 distinct scenarios are starting to emerge for our tropical system next week. 2 out of 3 involve no U.S. impact, but one definitely does. Here’s the breakdown:
đźź Scenario 1: Central America
The system stays weak in the eastern Caribbean and drifts west as a disorganized cluster of showers and storms. It eventually buries itself in Central America. Flooding would likely be the main concern there, assuming it organizes at all. There would be NO US impacts here.
🟣Scenario 2: US / Gulf Coast
This is the worst-case setup for the U.S. The system stays weak early on, then organizes in the central and western Caribbean. Because it stays farther south, it misses the “ticket” to curve out to sea and lingers in the Caribbean, potentially strengthening into a tropical storm or hurricane. Eventually, another trough could pull it northeast toward the U.S., making a close call or landfall hard to avoid. Let’s hope models trend away from this one.
🟢Scenario 3: Hispaniola / Out to Sea
The system organizes quickly in the eastern Caribbean, gains latitude, and gets picked up by the trough moving through the U.S. around October 24. That would likely send it out to sea like the others this season. In this case, Hispaniola and Cuba could still see flooding rain, wind, and surge depending on the storm’s strength.
Ensembles haven’t leaned toward any of these outcomes yet, but that should start to change in the next few days.
Anyone with interests in the Gulf or Caribbean should monitor this over the next week. I'll post a video update on this tomorrow, so LOOK OUT FOR THAT
- StormCat5
2 months ago | [YT] | 44