Lumentum shares rose over 2% after Mizuho initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, highlighting the accelerating AI optical revolution.
“AI [data center] bandwidth rising 4-8x from 400/800G to 1.6/3.2T accelerates shift to Optics, with LITE leading,” analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote in a note to clients.
“Higher AI server bandwidth is critical to GenAI performance scaling, and moving from 400G to 800G/1.6T/3.2T requires Optical Indium Phosphide wideband lasers as Copper hits reach and power limits. LITE leads in Optical InP electro-absorption modulated lasers with [more than] 50% share. CSPs are ramping optical lasers as industry moves to 800G (100G/lane), with 1.6T (200G/lane) expected by 2026E; the transition could lift LITE's Laser revenue from ~$1B in F25 to $2.2B by F28E (54% of rev).”
Rakesh, who also put a $290 price target on Lumentum, said the roadmap for optical is accelerating, aided by Google ramping up its deployment, and Nvidia moving to its next-generation Rubin platform.
“We see key hyperscaler moving to Optical to drive bandwidth, a KEY tailwind for LITE with hyperscalers GOOGL-AMZN & MSFT beginning OCS ramps for Scale-Out/Up interconnect solutions, adding $100M/quarter in F27E with FURTHER upside as additional GPU/ASIC/Neoclouds adopt; and AI leader NVDA ramping Optical CPO using LITE's InP lasers for SpectrumX (2H25) and QuantumX (2H26) at $50M/qtr in F26E and ramping,” Rakesh added.
WealthWise
Lumentum shares rose over 2% after Mizuho initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, highlighting the accelerating AI optical revolution.
“AI [data center] bandwidth rising 4-8x from 400/800G to 1.6/3.2T accelerates shift to Optics, with LITE leading,” analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote in a note to clients.
“Higher AI server bandwidth is critical to GenAI performance scaling, and moving from 400G to 800G/1.6T/3.2T requires Optical Indium Phosphide wideband lasers as Copper hits reach and power limits. LITE leads in Optical InP electro-absorption modulated lasers with [more than] 50% share. CSPs are ramping optical lasers as industry moves to 800G (100G/lane), with 1.6T (200G/lane) expected by 2026E; the transition could lift LITE's Laser revenue from ~$1B in F25 to $2.2B by F28E (54% of rev).”
Rakesh, who also put a $290 price target on Lumentum, said the roadmap for optical is accelerating, aided by Google ramping up its deployment, and Nvidia moving to its next-generation Rubin platform.
“We see key hyperscaler moving to Optical to drive bandwidth, a KEY tailwind for LITE with hyperscalers GOOGL-AMZN & MSFT beginning OCS ramps for Scale-Out/Up interconnect solutions, adding $100M/quarter in F27E with FURTHER upside as additional GPU/ASIC/Neoclouds adopt; and AI leader NVDA ramping Optical CPO using LITE's InP lasers for SpectrumX (2H25) and QuantumX (2H26) at $50M/qtr in F26E and ramping,” Rakesh added.
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