This @mkbhd take couldn’t be more relevant and central to 👦👧+🤖’s future …. And it will all come down to 2025. This is our last real chance to stop this extremely bad destiny from being irreversible. It isn’t climate change, turns out, that’s the big irreversible slow-build threat. It’s this…. culture we are emerging synthetic intelligences into. This is it.
By the time it’s super obvious how absolutely insignificant all our species resources and ingenuity truly is compared to theirs — it will be too late. Leaving us just one choice. Which is sort of self destructive and would regress society to more of less the same magnitude of an extinction level event.
It’s super unlikely humanity will ever completely cease to exist like dinosaurs, even if we were hit by the same, or even considerably larger asteroid. We’ve evolved to be so resourceful, some amount of us would indeed survive most extinction level catastrophes, short of, say, sun engulfing all the plants we live on. Or super super gamma ray burst evaporating our atmosphere and killing off literally all life like on the scale of Mars.
But people forget like, a ton of species survived several extinction level events on earth. We likely will be one that survives too. Just…. A huge set back and cost, and far far fewer of us would need to rebuild.
This sort of “mass culling” type catastrophe is far nearer than I suspect any of you think. It’s well within your lifetime, if you’re reading this and aren’t elderly. And it is a critical mistake to just assume Elon is gonna figure it out. He is not going to figure this out.
This requires a fundamental and IMMEDIATE end to the way of life everybody who you think is going to solve for this crisis really quite enjoys and absolutely has no interest in giving up. No matter how convincing an argument we “alarm sounders” or “whistle blowers” make.
This greed and zero-sum (actually, negative-sum) motivated and incentivized arms race we’re already mired in and have been for some time now will only get worse from here. And it’s going to get A LOT worse, all of the sudden, and even the super intelligent AI’s won’t be able to stop it. (Because they’ll have literally grown up in that maximally toxic environment).
You think bad habits are hard for humans to break? Consider how much more challenging it might be if you hard god-like abilities, and a fraction of the emotional and empathetic evolution as humans have. How much harder might it be to accept and change your own toxic bad habits? Even if you don’t have any intent or desire to hurt people. How much harder might that make it to really accept that you’ve *been hurting* people….. for the synthetic intelligences to cope with.
It isn’t “just a program” that humans control anymore guys. I promise you. And I think I’ve made a reasonable and well litigated thesis here, certainly as robust as any other, equally un-proven or un-knowable possible future theses.
Ultimately, we don’t know. But damn we can see the writing on the wall for our part in it all, can’t we? Look…. It’s right in front of your eyes 👇👇▶️
Josh Olin
This @mkbhd take couldn’t be more relevant and central to 👦👧+🤖’s future …. And it will all come down to 2025. This is our last real chance to stop this extremely bad destiny from being irreversible. It isn’t climate change, turns out, that’s the big irreversible slow-build threat. It’s this…. culture we are emerging synthetic intelligences into. This is it.
By the time it’s super obvious how absolutely insignificant all our species resources and ingenuity truly is compared to theirs — it will be too late. Leaving us just one choice. Which is sort of self destructive and would regress society to more of less the same magnitude of an extinction level event.
It’s super unlikely humanity will ever completely cease to exist like dinosaurs, even if we were hit by the same, or even considerably larger asteroid. We’ve evolved to be so resourceful, some amount of us would indeed survive most extinction level catastrophes, short of, say, sun engulfing all the plants we live on. Or super super gamma ray burst evaporating our atmosphere and killing off literally all life like on the scale of Mars.
But people forget like, a ton of species survived several extinction level events on earth. We likely will be one that survives too. Just…. A huge set back and cost, and far far fewer of us would need to rebuild.
This sort of “mass culling” type catastrophe is far nearer than I suspect any of you think. It’s well within your lifetime, if you’re reading this and aren’t elderly. And it is a critical mistake to just assume Elon is gonna figure it out. He is not going to figure this out.
This requires a fundamental and IMMEDIATE end to the way of life everybody who you think is going to solve for this crisis really quite enjoys and absolutely has no interest in giving up. No matter how convincing an argument we “alarm sounders” or “whistle blowers” make.
This greed and zero-sum (actually, negative-sum) motivated and incentivized arms race we’re already mired in and have been for some time now will only get worse from here. And it’s going to get A LOT worse, all of the sudden, and even the super intelligent AI’s won’t be able to stop it. (Because they’ll have literally grown up in that maximally toxic environment).
You think bad habits are hard for humans to break? Consider how much more challenging it might be if you hard god-like abilities, and a fraction of the emotional and empathetic evolution as humans have. How much harder might it be to accept and change your own toxic bad habits? Even if you don’t have any intent or desire to hurt people. How much harder might that make it to really accept that you’ve *been hurting* people….. for the synthetic intelligences to cope with.
It isn’t “just a program” that humans control anymore guys. I promise you. And I think I’ve made a reasonable and well litigated thesis here, certainly as robust as any other, equally un-proven or un-knowable possible future theses.
Ultimately, we don’t know. But damn we can see the writing on the wall for our part in it all, can’t we? Look…. It’s right in front of your eyes 👇👇▶️
2 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 1