There is a ton of uncertainty with soon-to-be Imelda. Yesterday morning, almost all the models had a hurricane making landfall along the Carolina coast; now most of them have Imelda stalling and curving out to sea, and there are two reasons for this.
The first is because Hurricane Humberto, which is currently located about 1000 miles east of Imelda, is overperforming and making a run at Category 5 intensity. Humberto is essentially pulling Imelda, and the stronger Humberto gets, the stronger that pull is. The second is because a trough that is sitting over the East Coast has trended weaker, causing it to have less influence on Imelda. This allows Humberto to have much more influence on Imelda's track.
With most guidance right now showing Imelda not making landfall, I am staying put, but if anything changes, I will be heading down. This is a very challenging forecast.
Freddy McKinney
There is a ton of uncertainty with soon-to-be Imelda. Yesterday morning, almost all the models had a hurricane making landfall along the Carolina coast; now most of them have Imelda stalling and curving out to sea, and there are two reasons for this.
The first is because Hurricane Humberto, which is currently located about 1000 miles east of Imelda, is overperforming and making a run at Category 5 intensity. Humberto is essentially pulling Imelda, and the stronger Humberto gets, the stronger that pull is. The second is because a trough that is sitting over the East Coast has trended weaker, causing it to have less influence on Imelda. This allows Humberto to have much more influence on Imelda's track.
With most guidance right now showing Imelda not making landfall, I am staying put, but if anything changes, I will be heading down. This is a very challenging forecast.
2 weeks ago (edited) | [YT] | 583