NAM shows CAPE hitting 4500+ J kg across parts of IL and WI.
This again shows in this case how even if we have a slight risk in areas south of our ENH, there is still plenty of energy for storms to fire. If storms can break the strong cap in place and fire down into the SLGHT they can be as severe or more severe as the stuff the north will see, especially if discrete. The risk down in this area is a slight because of the cap in place which will likely prevent storms from firing- but a significant amount ingredients are still present in this area for a very bad storm.
The whole reason for this post is to stay aware if you live in the yellow area south of the orange. If the cap is broken by a storm in this area, as there are still ingredients in the atmosphere (almost more so in this area than our risk) for a significant storm. (Likely hail producing in this area but I would not rule out another threat.)
Still have the ENH risk, but now includes parts of MN, more of IL and MI.
The SPC has also expanded the Tornado risk to include more of MI, IL, and the Northern chunk of IN. I sort of expected this…was kinda surprised they didn’t do this earlier, but they have been super conservative with their forecasts lately, however the greatest tornado potential I still see being where the risk spans into WI
THIS MORNING*
Expect storms to roll into SE Minnesota early this morning around 4-5 AM as they make their way NE into the morning commute. This will be a line of thunderstorms. This is not the main threat, but worth grabbing an umbrella for, these storms may bring some hail and damaging winds depending on where you are, but again not the threat.
THIS EVENING* the event
Depending on how much energy the morning storms take up and how long they linger will effect our afternoon event greatly. If the atmosphere can recharge in time after the morning storms, things could be even more significant.
Expect storms to fire across western MN around 12-1 PM and make their way east…very quickly. If these storms stay desecrate as they move into WI and into our tornado risk we could see a significant tornado or two, but not ruling out a tornado before they cross into the state.
The storms will track NE across WI and eventually form into a line and bow out, posing more of a wind threat. By the time this section makes its way to Lake Michigan, it will likely be a general wind threat.
As we go south into our expanded risk, IF storms can fire down into there especially north of our cap into northern IN, and if they stay descrete or semi descrete, I would not rule out a tornado. Even farther south if the storms can break the cap in place into the Slight risk which spans down to MS.
Overall, today looks very active all day. Stay aware and have a way to receive alerts.
Wish I could forecast this upcoming event but I cant where I am.
ENH Risk tomorrow across WI and parts of IL and MI
Looks like we could have some supercells form in the afternoon hours in western WI, if they do fire, then eventually merging together and bowing out as the models predict the entire line to move NE as our Low moves them. They should become more of a wind threat as they move towards lake michigan. There is a large 5 percent tornado risk in play, but specifically over WI we have a 10% tornado risk, with our cap in place, the skinny warm sector, and the shear present this sections off a more significant risk where these conditions would favor more tornadoes if storms fire in the area (they will likely).
Overall any storms that fire south into our slight risk and stay discrete could pose the same tornado threat, however there is a stronger cap in place. I would not rule out a significant tornado south of the enhanced risk if our storms break the cap, as conditions are still favorable south. Overall this whole thing is conditional, but specifically into our slight risk where things could be significant if stuff pans out.
Mr.Wallin
Mr.Wallin
PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IF IN GREENSBURG, KS
Same goes for areas like Haviland and Brenham, KS
I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH
I do not see this weakening any time soon, this is a nocturnal tornado.
If you know ANYONE in Greensburg, KS please contact them NOW!
6 months ago | [YT] | 1
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Mr.Wallin
Follow my Twitter @midwestswwx for severe weather updates
6 months ago | [YT] | 0
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Mr.Wallin
VIOLENT TORNADO heading for London KY
Strong tornado with debris lofted 20,000 ft plus into atmosphere.
This has been on the ground for 50 minutes now, producing significant damage.
There are reports of this SAME tornaodo has caused significant distructuon in previous cities it has hit.
6 months ago | [YT] | 8
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Mr.Wallin
Big time tornado moving into Ferguson and Somerset KY
this meets tornado emergency criteria, but is only at a base tornado warning the NWS office covering this is extremely understaffed .
this warning should be upgraded
Take shelter now !!!!!
6 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 0
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Mr.Wallin
MASSIVE TORNADO HEADING TOWARDS COLUMBUS IN
I have not seen this in my lifetime, scatter spike on a debris ball.
This NEEDS to be a tornado emergency.
TAKE SHELTER
I cannot stress this enough, I have never seen this before.
Reports of complete destruction behind this storm.
6 months ago | [YT] | 0
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Mr.Wallin
NAM shows CAPE hitting 4500+ J kg across parts of IL and WI.
This again shows in this case how even if we have a slight risk in areas south of our ENH, there is still plenty of energy for storms to fire. If storms can break the strong cap in place and fire down into the SLGHT they can be as severe or more severe as the stuff the north will see, especially if discrete. The risk down in this area is a slight because of the cap in place which will likely prevent storms from firing- but a significant amount ingredients are still present in this area for a very bad storm.
The whole reason for this post is to stay aware if you live in the yellow area south of the orange. If the cap is broken by a storm in this area, as there are still ingredients in the atmosphere (almost more so in this area than our risk) for a significant storm. (Likely hail producing in this area but I would not rule out another threat.)
6 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mr.Wallin
UPDATE for today:
good morning
Still have the ENH risk, but now includes parts of MN, more of IL and MI.
The SPC has also expanded the Tornado risk to include more of MI, IL, and the Northern chunk of IN. I sort of expected this…was kinda surprised they didn’t do this earlier, but they have been super conservative with their forecasts lately, however the greatest tornado potential I still see being where the risk spans into WI
THIS MORNING*
Expect storms to roll into SE Minnesota early this morning around 4-5 AM as they make their way NE into the morning commute. This will be a line of thunderstorms. This is not the main threat, but worth grabbing an umbrella for, these storms may bring some hail and damaging winds depending on where you are, but again not the threat.
THIS EVENING*
the event
Depending on how much energy the morning storms take up and how long they linger will effect our afternoon event greatly. If the atmosphere can recharge in time after the morning storms, things could be even more significant.
Expect storms to fire across western MN around 12-1 PM and make their way east…very quickly. If these storms stay desecrate as they move into WI and into our tornado risk we could see a significant tornado or two, but not ruling out a tornado before they cross into the state.
The storms will track NE across WI and eventually form into a line and bow out, posing more of a wind threat. By the time this section makes its way to Lake Michigan, it will likely be a general wind threat.
As we go south into our expanded risk, IF storms can fire down into there especially north of our cap into northern IN, and if they stay descrete or semi descrete, I would not rule out a tornado. Even farther south if the storms can break the cap in place into the Slight risk which spans down to MS.
Overall, today looks very active all day. Stay aware and have a way to receive alerts.
6 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mr.Wallin
Wish I could forecast this upcoming event but I cant where I am.
ENH Risk tomorrow across WI and parts of IL and MI
Looks like we could have some supercells form in the afternoon hours in western WI, if they do fire, then eventually merging together and bowing out as the models predict the entire line to move NE as our Low moves them. They should become more of a wind threat as they move towards lake michigan. There is a large 5 percent tornado risk in play, but specifically over WI we have a 10% tornado risk, with our cap in place, the skinny warm sector, and the shear present this sections off a more significant risk where these conditions would favor more tornadoes if storms fire in the area (they will likely).
Overall any storms that fire south into our slight risk and stay discrete could pose the same tornado threat, however there is a stronger cap in place. I would not rule out a significant tornado south of the enhanced risk if our storms break the cap, as conditions are still favorable south. Overall this whole thing is conditional, but specifically into our slight risk where things could be significant if stuff pans out.
Have ways to receive warnings and watches.
6 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 1
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Mr.Wallin
so ive been in Iceland so no forecasts for a while sorry just watch @MaxVelocityWX he is a cool guy
6 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 0
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Mr.Wallin
think this new name is here to stay
6 months ago | [YT] | 0
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