Zeihan on Geopolitics

I don’t usually try to connect climate change to specific local events. The relationship between climate and weather is complex, and it’s easy to overreach. But what’s happening in the Central Pacific right now is one of those cases where the connection is hard to ignore.

Guam is not just another island—it is one of the most important strategic assets the United States has. Its location allows the U.S. to project power across the entire Indo-Pacific without relying on allies. That advantage, however, comes with a tradeoff: exposure. Guam sits directly in the path of increasingly powerful storms, and those storms are becoming more frequent and more destructive.

At some point, this stops being a story about rebuilding after damage and becomes a question of long-term viability. If Guam is repeatedly taken offline, it complicates everything from logistics to deterrence across the region.

📸: US Air Force

#guam #military #militarystrategy #geopolitics

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 340

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Audience Poll: Which statements are most likely to be made during President Trump’s address to the nation this evening?

#trump #iranwar #geopolitics

1 month ago | [YT] | 222

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Iran is processing ships at the Imam Khomeini port, located in Khuzestan at the northernmost extreme of the Gulf, near Kharg Island.

So, for ships seeking passage approval from Iran, they have to sail all the way to the northern end of the Gulf—all while drone and missile exchange occur overhead—dock, get their papers, and pay a fee of approximately $2 million per large ship. Then, instead of using the navigable pathway through the middle of the Strait, they hug the Iranian coast as closely as possible while sailing through.

Even though the US military is now more present in this region than at any time in modern history, it is doing nothing to interrupt the commercial flows to and from Iran. As a result, Iran has increased its export volumes to nearly 2 million barrels per day while also profiting from a war surcharge.

#crudeoil #iran #exports #geopolitics

1 month ago | [YT] | 907

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex.

The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars condensate field were hit by Israeli air strikes (and with US approval). We’re still waiting on detailed assessments, but the Doha is describing the damage as “extensive.” Ras Laffan supplies 20% of global LNG needs—and nearly a quarter of Chinese consumption alone.

From an American perspective, the U.S. has been investing heavily in natural gas and has export capacity to spare in the next few years. This is going to be a market with a very large American thumb on the scale, which means countries, again, like China, are facing a very perilous future.

#lng #globalenergy #geopolitics #iranwar

1 month ago | [YT] | 650

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Pakistan Strikes Afghanistan: A War in Name Only

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared his country to be in “open war” with Afghanistan on Friday, following a series of cross-border strikes between the two neighbors. The reality is more muted.

While the Pakistani military is currently conducting strikes against militant targets in Afghanistan—as well as air strikes in Kabul and Kandahar—the difficult geography and limited reach of both parties mean a conventional military engagement remains very unlikely. Furthermore, Pakistan has spent decades trying, and failing, to bring its restive regions along its western borders under central government control. Despite their long shared border, Pakistan lacks a secure overland transport corridor to send troops and supplies into Afghanistan.

Islamabad is asking the weaker Afghan state to achieve a strategic goal that has thus far eluded Pakistan: getting Islamist militants in line and under control. Rhetoric and tensions will continue to flare as both states lack the tools to meaningfully address rising regional militant activity; Pakistan will launch strikes as necessary to respond to militant attacks, and Afghanistan will continue to lack the ability or desire to rein in Taliban-adjacent militants.

2 months ago | [YT] | 526

Zeihan on Geopolitics

In my latest interview with Times Radio on Superpowers, I joined James Heappey to discuss the four year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the likelihood of an American attack on Iran, Japan and Canada, and more...

2 months ago | [YT] | 58

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Alert🚨 Watch my newest interview below!

As Donald Trump marks a year back in office, his threats against Europe and hard-line trade policies are pushing his allies to the edge. So how do we make sense of a global future in flux?

2 months ago | [YT] | 83

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Audience Poll: Which geopolitical event do you see potentially occurring within the next two weeks?

Don't see your pick? Drop your answer in the comments below ✍️

2 months ago | [YT] | 616

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Article of The Day: Australia Begins Enforcing World-First Teen Social Media Ban [via Reuters]

Australia on Wednesday became the first country to ban social media for children under 16, blocking access in a move welcomed by many parents and child advocates but criticised by major technology companies and free-speech advocates.

Article Link ➡️ reut.rs/48LDSBP

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4 months ago | [YT] | 334

Zeihan on Geopolitics

I’ll be hosting our next Live Q&A session for the Analyst Tier on November 21 at 12:00 PM Eastern. This is your chance to throw your most pressing questions at me—on geopolitics, global trends, demographics, and the forces shaping our world.

We’ll cover a mix of pre-submitted and LIVE questions from the audience. Don’t miss your chance to join this interactive session. Upgrade to the Analyst tier now to register and submit your question in advance!

Join the Analyst Tier on Patreon ➡️ bit.ly/4qS58GX

5 months ago | [YT] | 1