The 2% Brief

Oil Prices Surge 10% - Fed Rate Hike Back in Play

My latest 2% Brief is now live.

Oil has surged nearly 10% in a week, the US jobs report came in much stronger than expected, and another Federal Reserve rate hike is firmly back in the conversation.

In this week’s video I look at:

Why the jobs report changes the Fed calculation
What rising oil prices mean for inflation
Why gold and silver were so volatile
What the 30-year Treasury yield is signalling
Why next Friday’s CPI report could decide the next market move

🎥 Watch here:
https://youtu.be/ObpVpAF7-vw

Do you think the Fed raises rates in September - yes or no?

7 hours ago | [YT] | 0

The 2% Brief

Today’s 2% Brief is now live.

The Fed has sent a warning - but markets have reacted in a way many investors probably weren’t expecting.

In today’s video I look at what’s happening across stocks, bonds, gold, silver and oil, why the long-term bond market behaved differently this week, and why Friday’s US jobs report could become the next major catalyst.

▶️ Watch it here:
https://youtu.be/hDhUJVRC1lM

And for members of The 2% Brief Inner Circle, I’ll be back this evening with a deeper audio briefing and PDF setting out my three main scenarios for the week ahead, together with the price levels and expectations I’m watching for gold, silver and oil.

Let me know in the comments what you’re watching most closely this week.

6 days ago | [YT] | 1

The 2% Brief

The 2% Brief Inner Circle Weekly Brief has gone out a little earlier than usual today and is now in members’ inboxes.

Before listening to it, I strongly recommend watching yesterday’s free video first:

The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning Stocks Can’t Ignore
https://youtu.be/J_T_rJkWQo0

Today’s Inner Circle briefing then goes one level deeper.

We look at why the warning from the bond market is now spreading into oil, gold, the dollar, the US consumer and the financing of the AI boom — plus the key levels I’m watching around Iran, PCE inflation, Nvidia and Jackson Hole this week.

Inner Circle members receive the full weekly audio briefing plus the accompanying PDF, including the scenarios, market levels and practical watchlist for the week ahead.

Join the Inner Circle and access The 2% Brief on Substack here:
👉 the2percentbrief.substack.com/subscribe

1 week ago | [YT] | 2

The 2% Brief

New 2% Brief video is now live

The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning Stocks Can't Ignore

The 30-year US Treasury yield has pushed to levels not seen since 2007 - and that matters well beyond the bond market.

In this week's video, I look at:

why higher bond yields matter for stocks
what the moves in gold, Bitcoin and oil may be telling us
why Friday's stock-market rebound does not remove the risk
the three big tests next week: PCE inflation, Nvidia earnings and Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole

📺 Watch here:
https://youtu.be/J_T_rJkWQo0

And for 2% Brief Inner Circle members, I'll be going into much greater detail in Sunday's analysis, looking at what these moves could mean for markets in the week ahead.

Let me know in the comments - which matters most next week: inflation, Nvidia or the Fed?

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 4

The 2% Brief

🚨 TODAY’S 2% BRIEF IS NOW LIVE

The stock market is sitting close to record highs - but underneath the surface, the risks are building.

Oil has jumped sharply.
Bond yields remain elevated.
The US consumer is showing signs of weakness.

So the big question this week is:

What could actually break the rally?

In today’s 2% Brief, I look at the three risks I’m watching most closely - oil, the Fed and bond yields, and the consumer - plus the key levels and data that could shape the week ahead.

🎥 Stock Market Near Record Highs - What Could Break the Rally?
Watch now: https://youtu.be/UxyAtpueEB0

If you find the brief useful, please give it a like, leave your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s update.

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0

The 2% Brief

📌 Quick note for Inner Circle members

Given how much moved over the weekend in the Gulf, today's Inner Circle audio + PDF went out a little earlier than usual - check your inbox.

Haven't watched this week's video yet? Start here:
Weak Jobs, Record Highs: Has the Fed Lost the Argument?
👉 https://youtu.be/oAJOOnHmd4Y

Then the Inner Circle briefing covers what happened after Friday's close - Iran's new Hormuz conditions, the tanker the UAE says was hit, and a new Gulf defence pact that didn't make the video.

Not a member yet? Link's in the description.
👉 the2percentbrief.substack.com/subscribe

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 2

The 2% Brief

New video is up: Weak Jobs, Record Highs: Has the Fed Lost the Argument?

The US lost 23,000 jobs on Friday when 83,000 were expected — and stocks still closed at a record high. This week I unpack why bad news is trading as good news, the trap it leaves the Fed in, and the gold, silver and Bitcoin levels to watch before Wednesday's inflation report decides which way this breaks.

Watch here: https://youtu.be/oAJOOnHmd4Y

For the deeper dive — exact levels and CPI scenarios — join the free Substack list or upgrade to the Inner Circle.
👉 the2percentbrief.substack.com/subscribe

4 weeks ago | [YT] | 4

The 2% Brief

Has the Fed Lost Control?

The Fed held rates steady, but long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to their highest level since 2007.

In today’s video, I look at what this could mean for stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin and the US jobs report due later this week.

Watch here first:
https://youtu.be/R_z-2jDuxR4

Inner Circle members will receive the deeper analysis directly by email at 7pm this evening.

1 month ago | [YT] | 2

The 2% Brief

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Escape Route Is Now Under Threat

Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its Red Sea export route to bypass disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Now that alternative route is also under threat.

In today’s video, I explain why this matters for oil prices, shipping, inflation and the Federal Reserve:
https://youtu.be/8VSm0d_1C-c

The full Inner Circle briefing will be published at 7pm this evening:
the2percentbrief.substack.com/

1 month ago | [YT] | 4

The 2% Brief

New video is up: Oil Tops $100 as Gold, Silver and the Fed Collide This Week

Brent broke $100, gold is back above $4,000, silver is up 4%, and fresh tariffs just added another inflation headache right before Wednesday's Fed decision.

Watch now: https://youtu.be/0VtquH8S-mE

Inner Circle members get the full breakdown by email tomorrow at 7pm — upgrade before then if you want it in your inbox:

the2percentbrief.substack.com/

1 month ago | [YT] | 2