Indraanil Guha

FED IS NOW BACK TO MONEY PRINTING (QE)!

So the Fed did finally blink! Not only did the Fed cut Fed Funds Rate yesterday by 25 basis points, Chairman Powell also announced that the Fed will start “technical buying of treasury bills to manage market liquidity” from 12-Dec-2025. This amounts to nothing but the Fed going back to Quantitative Easing (or money printing), even though the Fed will never admit this is nothing but good ol’ QE!

This is something that I had specifically predicted in my most recent video, which I had published on 6-Dec-2025. In that video, I had clearly predicted that – given the severe liquidity squeeze that we are witnessing right now, and with the RRP being fully depleted, it’ll NOT be enough for the Fed to just stop QT in order to address the current liquidity squeeze; instead the Fed will have no choice but to go back to QE very soon!

Here’s the video I had published last week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfJZY...


It’s a rather long video… if you haven’t had the chance to go thru the full video, do watch at least for 5 minutes from 49:45 onwards!

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 8

Indraanil Guha

THIS HAS HAPPENED ONLY THRICE IN 100 YEARS, EACH TIME IT ENDED IN DISASTER

Yield curve inversion is almost universally regarded as one of the most reliable predictors of an upcoming recession and the stock market crash that usually accompanies recessions. That’s why we must be extremely cautious right now, given the massive inversion we’ve recently witnessed in the yield curve.



What’s particular concern is that this is only the fourth time in recorded history that we’ve had a yield curve inversion lasting more than 500 days. And each of the previous three instances ended disastrously for both the economy and the markets.

The first was in 1929, which was of course followed by the Great Depression and the Dow Jones crashing by almost 90% (between 1929 and 1932).


The second instance came in 1973, post which the S&P 500 crashed by almost 50%.

And finally the third instance occurred in 2006–07, which was followed by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the S&P 500 crashing by over 50%.


So, is the US economy and equity markets headed for a similar fate in 2026? That’s exactly what I discuss in this video; so please do watch it till the end.

1 month ago | [YT] | 5

Indraanil Guha

GLOBAL MACROS, FED CHAOS & INDIA'S MARKET REALITY!

I recently recorded an interview with Ronit Guptaa, who runs this amazing channel called Beyond Bull&Bear!

This is the first time I participated in an interview/podcast with an external channel, and I loved the youthful passion and inquisitiveness with which Ronit conducted the interview. I had a ball recording the interview and I am sure it'll be the same for you as well as you go thru the interview!

We touched on a wide range of topics ranging from where we are in the current cycle, what to expect from equity markets going forward from here, is a recession inevitable in the near future, and most importantly what is that golden strategy to help navigate the upcoming ups and downs of equity markets, if indeed we are headed into a recession (and no, the strategy is NOT to sell everything and hide under a rock)!

Please do watch the full video at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NNWr...

1 month ago | [YT] | 1

Indraanil Guha

AlphaSIP® 2.0 is here! Now investing gets even smarter with two unique benefits – completely tax-free maturity proceeds (even under the new tax regime, for investments up to ₹2.5 lakhs per annum) and no GST on fund management charges, making the total expense ratio significantly lower than mutual funds. With AlphaSIP® 2.0, you not only grow your wealth but also save more on costs and taxes.



It’s time to upgrade your investment journey with AlphaSIP® 2.0 – Smarter. Sharper. Better.


Explore AlphaSIP® Plans here: metacaps.ai/alphasip-best-sip-plans-in-india

3 months ago | [YT] | 6

Indraanil Guha

It’s not very often that you get to spar with no less than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on the state of the US labor market! It’s rarer still when it’s the Chairman’s narrative in the debate that spectacularly unravels. Bizarre as it sound, that’s exactly what played over the last week or so.

Chairman Powell, up until as recently as the most recent meeting of the FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) which concluded on 30-Jul-2025, has been trying to argue that “the labor market is still quite solid”! In fact, this was Powell’s main premise to defend the Fed’s decision NOT to cut rates in its most recent meeting. But as luck would have it, this narrative of a “solid labor market” very quickly unraveled on 1-Jul-2025, which is when the monthly non-farm payroll report for the month of July-2025 was rereleased by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and this report showed that the US labor market is NOT just weak, it’s pretty much on the brink of a collapse!

I have of course been arguing consistently on my channel for the better part of 2025 that the notion of US labor market being strong is a myth. Thankfully this myth has now unraveled, and unraveled conclusively. But we now run the risk of the dominant narrative swinging to the other extreme, and narrative peddlers going on overdrive to serve “recession porn”, and “experts” advising you to immediately liquidate your stock portfolios before recession hits. But I assure you, nothing can be more disastrous for your investment portfolio, if you let your investment decisions be guided by these stories of gloom at doom at this stage of the business cycle. So please do watch this video till the end, because I discuss how best to position your investment portfolio in the weeks and months ahead in the light of everything that has been transpiring lately the US labor market.

4 months ago | [YT] | 10

Indraanil Guha

HOW TO TIME THE BOTTOM OF THIS ON-GOING CORRECTION?

Equity markets are witnessing a carnage of sorts and the primary worry in the mind of every investor right now is to what extent equity markets can fall further!

But instead of speculating if we’re going to get another 5% or 10% or even a 30% drop from here, I believe investors should focus their energies to understand what indicators to look at, which can reliably signal how long this correction will potentially last, and when markets will potentially bottom!

And if you are looking for such indicators, then turn your glance towards the bond market!

After all, as the old saying goes – Stocks are for rookies, bonds are for the Big Boys!

And the bond market indicator, which I think is going to come in most handy at this stage with respect to navigating the equity markets is something called “Junk bond spreads"

You can track it at fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2

"Junk bond spread" essentially represents the additional interest rate (also called spread) demanded by bond investors from mid and small caps companies to invest in their bonds over and above the risk free rate (which is the rate paid by US government on US government bonds).

This additional interest rate (or spread) is meant to compensate bond investors for the higher risk of default that is incident while investing in bonds of mid and small caps companies.

A high spread means liquidity is drying up for small companies and that they are finding it difficult to raise money. And rising junk bond spreads have historically been a very reliable leading indicator of an upcoming recession.

This spread is currently at 4.45 and is rising fast! Clearly, that’s NOT a good sign. If it continues to rise and goes above 5 to 5.5, then that's something to be worried about, and if it goes above 6 to 6.5, that would be a danger sign, and would very likely mean that the US economy is indeed headed into a recession, and that equity markets are likely in for a more substantially crash.

However if and when junk bond spread starts to trend downwards, then that would be sign that the bond market is sensing a resolution to the trade war situation! That would be the time to take fresh positions in stocks!

But until junk bond spreads do NOT start trending downwards decisively, it's better to stay away from equity markets, which is what we are doing right now across our client portfolios.

But we remain ready to pivot as soon as we see signs of a decisive downtrend in junk bond spreads!

This is time to be very very data dependent... there’s simply no room for gut feel investing at this stage!

8 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 69

Indraanil Guha

A big thanks to viewers and clients, who registered and attended the Ask-Me-Anything (AMA) Session with Indraanil Guha on Sunday, 6-Apr-2025, in which I discussed “How to navigate markets in the middle of the on-going tariff-induced carnage”. I and my team are simply overwhelmed by the kind of love and support all of your showed for the session!

We also owe an apology to those who registered, but were unable to join the call because of the cap on number of attendees allowed by Zoom being hit within 5 minutes of the session starting. There was a sudden rush of last minute registrations, because of which we ended up with over a hundred registrations over and above what our current Zoom subscription could accommodate. And this happened so close to the start of the session that there was hardly any time for us to upgrade our subscription. This was a learning experience for us, and we promise to be better prepared for our upcoming sessions!

A big thanks once again for the enthusiastic support that so many of you have shown to all my AMA sessions so far! I will be publishing a video with the summary of what I presented in the AMA session yesterday. This video should be out by tomorrow 8-Apr-2025, and should serve as a useful guide for navigating the on-going turbulence in equity markets!

8 months ago | [YT] | 15

Indraanil Guha

ASK ME ANYTHING (AMA) SESSION WITH INDRAANIL GUHA | SUNDAY, 6-APR-2025 | 5:00 PM (INDIA TIME) | NIFTY-50 CRASH

Join us for an exclusive Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with Indraanil Guha as he shares his insights on what potentially lies ahead for equity markets globally as well as here in India, and how to navigate the on-going turbulence in equity markets that has been triggered by the announcement of sweeping tariffs by the Trump Administration on imports from almost all leading trading partners of the US.

This interactive session will start at 5:00 PM (India time) on Sunday, 6-Apr-2025, and will be conducted on Zoom.

There are no charges for attending the session; however it’s mandatory to register if you intend to attend the session. To attend, register now at:
metacaps.ai/register-for-ama-session

The Zoom meeting link to attend the session will be sent only to those who register before the session starts.

The session is likely to last about 2 hours, but Mr. Guha has offered to be around till the last question has been answered from his side, even if that means staying back for longer than the originally planned 2 hours! So do NOT miss this opportunity to get a sneak peek into the mind of Mr. Guha and also to pick his brain live on how he sees equity and bond markets trend from here. We look forward to seeing you all on Sunday at 5:00 PM!

8 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 6

Indraanil Guha

We announced the launch of a completely revamped version of our flagship AlphaSIP® Strategy on 16-Feb-2025. The newly launched version of AlphaSIP® is driven by our cutting edge AI-driven algos that have been designed quite literally to drive precise and timely exit from equity funds close to a market top and re-entry back into stocks closer to a market bottom across our client portfolios. And it’s NOT just marketing mumbo jumbo… our clients quite literally got to see the magic of these algos as the turbulence in equity markets has played out over the last six months! NOT just that, for the first time, we reduced the minimum ticket for investing in AlphaSIP® to Rs. 2.5 lakhs per year, so that our clients can also benefit from the additional upside of maturity proceeds of AlphaSIP® being completely tax-free!

And boy, what a response you all gave to the launch! The original plans was to keep the on-boarding window for new clients open till 31-Mar-2025, subject to a maximum of 100 clients! But we hit this limit in just about a month from the time we launched the revamped version of AlphaSIP®! To put this context, our total sales of AlphaSIP® in just one month since we launched the revamped version has been about 60% of what we sold in an entire year over the preceding financial year! To all our beloved new clients, we just want each and every one of you to know that we can never thank you enough for such an overwhelming response, and for trusting your hard earned money with us! This kind of trust and support means the world to me and my team! You all just confirmed our long-standing belief that scale in intermediation of financial products in this country can also be achieved through a transparent consultative approach, and without resorting to hard-sell mis-selling tactics!

As announced earlier, we have now closed fresh registrations for AlphaSIP®. We’re working hard to expand the capacity of our sales and operations team, so that we can resume on-boarding of new clients at the soonest. Please watch this space… we’ll announce as soon as we are ready to accept our next batch of clients!

8 months ago | [YT] | 12

Indraanil Guha

Hey Kolkata! I'm in your beautiful City of Joy for the weekend!

How about catching up for some chit-chat on markets with some kadak Chai and Coffee to go along? We'll start at 7pm on Sunday, March 23, 2025 at City Centre Mall, Salt Lake, and will hopefully wrap up before dinner!

There's no fixed agenda... just grab your coffee, take a seat at my table, and let’s chat!

This will be a small, intimate gathering with only 10 slots available, so registration is mandatory.

Don’t miss out—secure your spot now! For registration, click the link below:
metacaps.ai/registration-for-visit

Upon registration, you will receive an acknowledgment via Email/WhatsApp.

9 months ago | [YT] | 8