CodeMonkey Mike

Everyone knows September is red in a post-halving year.

So last year, everyone sold in August instead.

Here is what that did to the chart: August 2025 closed down 6.5%. September 2025 closed UP 5.16%, the third best September on record.

Read that again. The most reliably red month in the entire post-halving playbook turned green, and it turned green precisely BECAUSE everybody knew it was supposed to be red.

That is front-running. It is not a conspiracy and it is not complicated. When a pattern becomes common knowledge, the crowd steps in front of it, and the crowd's own footsteps move the thing they were trying to predict.

Which brings us to right now.

The entire four-year cycle crowd has circled October. October is the bottom, October is when you buy, October is when the pain ends. They have said it on every podcast and in every thread for six months.

Think about what that means mechanically. If millions of people have all agreed to buy in October, October is not allowed to be red. Their own buying is what turns those candles green. A bottom is the reddest month on the chart; it cannot also be the month everyone shows up with cash. So the one thing October almost certainly is NOT is the low.

And it goes a step further. The people who are not four-year cycle believers know all of this too. They know the October crowd is coming. So they do their buying before the crowd arrives, which means late August and September. Which pulls the whole move earlier again.

That is why I think the bottom is either already behind us or it is weeks away in August, not months away in October.

I am not going to pretend there is zero chance of a new low. If enough medium sized bearish things land at once, fresh tariffs on 60 countries, a Bank of Japan hike, a Clarity Act that dies on the Senate calendar, sure, we can print a lower low. But if that happens it happens in August, while the crowd is still standing around waiting for a month their own FOMO already ruined.

And when they finally do show up in October, they are not going to be calm about it. They are going to watch green candle after green candle, realize the bottom never came, and buy anyway. Overwhelmed with FOMO to the point where somebody is scheduling an appointment with a psychiatrist.

So here is what I want to know from you.

Where does the real bottom actually print: is it already behind us, is it August, or do you still think October delivers?

Drop it in the comments. Hit like if this reframed the October thing for you, and subscribe so you are not the last person to work out what the crowd is about to do.

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7 hours ago | [YT] | 4

CodeMonkey Mike

The saying not your keys, not your coins refers to controlling what?

8 hours ago | [YT] | 3

CodeMonkey Mike

More than half of everybody in crypto is checked out right now. They sold, they went to cash, and they set a calendar reminder for October because a four year chart told them to.

Here is the part that camp never thinks through.

If everyone is planning to buy in October, all of that demand lands in October. Which is exactly what stops October from being the low. The bottom prints while the crowd is still sitting on the sidelines arguing about it, not on the day they all agreed to show up.

I could be wrong. I have been early before and it worked out fine.

Where do you actually think the low goes in?

9 hours ago | [YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

Russia wrote and passed its entire crypto law in the time the US Senate has spent not scheduling a floor vote.

Moscow: passed July 21st, live September 1st.
Washington: no cloture motion, no floor time, and August 7th is the last day before recess.

We are supposed to lead this.

9 hours ago | [YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

How often does the Bitcoin block reward roughly halve?

1 day ago | [YT] | 3

CodeMonkey Mike

The Clarity Act cleared Senate Banking 15 to 9 back in May. It has been sitting on the calendar ever since with no floor vote scheduled.

August 7th is the last day before recess.

Bipartisan talks over the ethics language collapsed in mid July, a group of Senate Democrats came out publicly against the bill, and the prediction market odds fell from around 70 percent into the low 40s. It needs 60 votes, so it needs at least seven of them.

If it slips past August you are looking at recess, then September, then campaign season. The realistic next window is 2027.

So call it. Does the Senate get this done before they leave?

1 day ago | [YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

Which company dominates the market for chips used to train AI models?

2 days ago | [YT] | 4

CodeMonkey Mike

Robinhood chain has a king problem. Everyone has a different pick.

CashCat has the exchanges and the name Robinhood almost used. Tendies is pure degen chaos at a $17M cap. Hoodrat is the Matt Furie play.

If you had to put your whole meme bag on ONE Robinhood chain coin for the next rally, which one are you riding?

2 days ago | [YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

June CPI printed negative 0.4% month over month. Biggest one month drop since April 2020.

Everybody wants to call that a recession warning.

I think it is AI productivity showing up in the data, and it ends in zero rates without a single catastrophe.

#macro

2 days ago | [YT] | 3

CodeMonkey Mike

I am going to say the unpopular thing about the Robinhood chain memes, and I say it as somebody who is holding some.

There is nobody left to sell to.

That is not a bearish price call. It is arithmetic, and once you see it you cannot unsee it.

Robinhood launched its own chain on July 1st. It was pitched as the place tokenized stocks would live. Nine days later the memecoins had taken the whole thing over. The Robinhood chain meme category is running around 200 million dollars of market cap while the actual tokenized real world assets on that chain sit around 12 million.

That part is genuinely funny, and long term it is genuinely bullish.

Here is the problem right now.

More than half of everybody in crypto is checked out. They sold, they went to cash, and they are not coming back until October because a four year chart told them to. So when a Robinhood meme pumps, there is no new money showing up to pay for that pump. It is us. We are trading against ourselves.

Watch what already happened with Cash Cat. It went from around 10 million to 100 million in a matter of hours and peaked north of 150 million. Everybody who bought that top got fed by everybody who bought the bottom. Then it came back to around 80 million. So now there is a large group of people who are down, burned, and completely done with this meta.

Those people do not rotate into the next one. Every pump on that chain has a smaller pool of hype left to absorb it than the pump before it did.

So what do you actually do with that?

I am not telling you to sit it out. I am telling you to size like there is no cavalry coming. Small amounts, spread across a few of them, and be honest with yourself that this is a lottery ticket and not a thesis. Put 100 dollars across 10 of these, lose on nine, and one of them doing a 100X still wins the whole basket. That math works. What does not work is treating a 50 percent pump on no new retail like the start of a bull run.

For what it is worth, the one I would not laugh at is Cash Cat. Not because the art is good; the art is a static picture of a crying cat. Because it is the only one on that chain that actually went out and got itself listed. Roughly half a dozen exchanges now, plus perps on Binance. Every prettier coin on that chain has zero. That is the only real edge on the chain right now.

And the real unlock is still ahead of all of it: the day Robinhood puts one of these inside the retail app, next to the button people already use to buy stocks. That is the floodgate. Until then we are a closed room trading with each other.

So what are you actually doing: sitting the meta out until October, or sizing small and taking the lottery ticket? Tell me in the comments. Subscribe if you want the read that does not just pump whatever is green today.

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3 days ago | [YT] | 14