Bitcoin is sitting right on its 200-week SMA, and that average is climbing about $200 a week. It already closed a week below the line back in June, the first time since the 2022-23 bear market.
Does it close below that line again before September?
Michael Saylor's favorite Bitcoin stat is that it has traded above its 200-week SMA about 92% of the time, by his own math. It is the line his whole thesis leans on. Here is the part that does not make the highlight reel: Bitcoin already lost that line this year, and it is sitting right back on it today.
Late June, Bitcoin closed a week at $59,486 with the 200-week SMA at $62,443. That was its first weekly close beneath that line since the 2022-23 bear market. It clawed back above, and everybody moved on.
The problem is that the average keeps climbing, about $200 every single week, because the sub $20,000 weeks from late 2022 keep rolling out the back of the four year window. It was $62,443 in June. It is near $64,000 now. Bitcoin is around $63,600, which puts it a hair under the line as I write this: it closed above the average last week and has slipped back beneath it since. You do not need a crash to lose this line. You just need another week of nothing, because the line is the thing that is moving.
Now stack what is sitting on top of that.
Supply. MARA sold 23,093 Bitcoin in the first half of this year at an average price of $70,631. That is $1.63 billion of coins moving out of a miner's treasury and back into the market. Their stack went from 53,822 down to 35,577, and only 26,307 of what is left is unrestricted; the rest is loaned out or pledged as collateral.
Jobs. July had 33,429 announced layoffs, a two year low, and hiring plans were the strongest for any July since 2022. Sounds great. Payrolls still printed negative 23,000 against 80,000 expected, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000. Nobody is firing. Nobody is hiring. The whole thing froze in place.
Inflation. CPI came in exactly in line this morning, 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, easing from 3.5% in June. No relief and no shock, which means the week gets decided by PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.
And on the fun side of the market, only 37% of traders across the Robinhood chain's top 50 tokens are in profit. Everybody is spreading the same money across twenty tickets instead of five, so every pump lands smaller than the last one.
Any one of these on its own is noise. Stacked together, they are why I am building dry powder instead of chasing green candles.
I also finally pushed the Johnny Cash button on stream this week, so if it all goes red you know exactly who to blame.
Does Bitcoin hold the 200-week SMA into September, or lose it again? Tell me which one in the comments. And hit like and subscribe if you would rather be early on the next setup than read about it afterwards.
I never thought I would say this about Kaspa, but I said it in my group last week: if Bitcoin loses 57k and prints one more bottom, $KAS can see 1.4 cents.
The pattern is brutal right now. Bitcoin dips, Kaspa dips harder. Bitcoin recovers, Kaspa stays down. Bitcoin dips again, Kaspa digs deeper. I am battle hardened and stacking either way, but I want your honest read.
Does Kaspa print 1.4 cents before the bull run saves it?
Robinhood built its own chain and the meme race is on.
$IF has the strongest community on the chain. Cooper is the REAL office dog at Robinhood headquarters. Tendies is funny and stupid in exactly the way that gets an app listing. Cash Cat is ALREADY listed on the Robinhood app.
Which one is the biggest market cap at the top of the next bull run?
CodeMonkey Mike
A 51 percent attack means one party controls a majority of what?
1 hour ago | [YT] | 1
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CodeMonkey Mike
Bitcoin is sitting right on its 200-week SMA, and that average is climbing about $200 a week. It already closed a week below the line back in June, the first time since the 2022-23 bear market.
Does it close below that line again before September?
2 hours ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CodeMonkey Mike
What is the smallest unit of a bitcoin called?
9 hours ago | [YT] | 5
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CodeMonkey Mike
Every influencer says the 2024-2025 coins are done. Then $TUT, the coin we 94x'd last September, printed a brand new all time high anyway.
So let's put the FUD list to a vote. Which written off coin from last cycle prints a new all time high next?
10 hours ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CodeMonkey Mike
Michael Saylor's favorite Bitcoin stat is that it has traded above its 200-week SMA about 92% of the time, by his own math. It is the line his whole thesis leans on. Here is the part that does not make the highlight reel: Bitcoin already lost that line this year, and it is sitting right back on it today.
Late June, Bitcoin closed a week at $59,486 with the 200-week SMA at $62,443. That was its first weekly close beneath that line since the 2022-23 bear market. It clawed back above, and everybody moved on.
The problem is that the average keeps climbing, about $200 every single week, because the sub $20,000 weeks from late 2022 keep rolling out the back of the four year window. It was $62,443 in June. It is near $64,000 now. Bitcoin is around $63,600, which puts it a hair under the line as I write this: it closed above the average last week and has slipped back beneath it since. You do not need a crash to lose this line. You just need another week of nothing, because the line is the thing that is moving.
Now stack what is sitting on top of that.
Supply. MARA sold 23,093 Bitcoin in the first half of this year at an average price of $70,631. That is $1.63 billion of coins moving out of a miner's treasury and back into the market. Their stack went from 53,822 down to 35,577, and only 26,307 of what is left is unrestricted; the rest is loaned out or pledged as collateral.
Jobs. July had 33,429 announced layoffs, a two year low, and hiring plans were the strongest for any July since 2022. Sounds great. Payrolls still printed negative 23,000 against 80,000 expected, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000. Nobody is firing. Nobody is hiring. The whole thing froze in place.
Inflation. CPI came in exactly in line this morning, 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, easing from 3.5% in June. No relief and no shock, which means the week gets decided by PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.
And on the fun side of the market, only 37% of traders across the Robinhood chain's top 50 tokens are in profit. Everybody is spreading the same money across twenty tickets instead of five, so every pump lands smaller than the last one.
Any one of these on its own is noise. Stacked together, they are why I am building dry powder instead of chasing green candles.
I also finally pushed the Johnny Cash button on stream this week, so if it all goes red you know exactly who to blame.
Does Bitcoin hold the 200-week SMA into September, or lose it again? Tell me which one in the comments. And hit like and subscribe if you would rather be early on the next setup than read about it afterwards.
10 hours ago | [YT] | 5
View 2 replies
CodeMonkey Mike
I never thought I would say this about Kaspa, but I said it in my group last week: if Bitcoin loses 57k and prints one more bottom, $KAS can see 1.4 cents.
The pattern is brutal right now. Bitcoin dips, Kaspa dips harder. Bitcoin recovers, Kaspa stays down. Bitcoin dips again, Kaspa digs deeper. I am battle hardened and stacking either way, but I want your honest read.
Does Kaspa print 1.4 cents before the bull run saves it?
19 hours ago | [YT] | 4
View 1 reply
CodeMonkey Mike
doginme's all time high was $107M. Today it sits around $4M, still listed on Coinbase, still the first dog Coinbase listed from Base.
A normal bull run takes it back toward $400M. That is a 100x from here, and it is why I stack conviction plays in the bear.
#crypto #memecoins
19 hours ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CodeMonkey Mike
The coin we publicly called and 94x'd last September just printed a NEW all time high. My community is officially at a 130x on $TUT.
It flipped Bitcoin on the liquidation charts while doing it: over $42M in a single day.
Every influencer said last year's coins were dead.
Follow: @tutorialtoken
#crypto #bnb
1 day ago | [YT] | 3
View 3 replies
CodeMonkey Mike
In crypto, what does DeFi stand for?
1 day ago | [YT] | 2
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CodeMonkey Mike
Robinhood built its own chain and the meme race is on.
$IF has the strongest community on the chain. Cooper is the REAL office dog at Robinhood headquarters. Tendies is funny and stupid in exactly the way that gets an app listing. Cash Cat is ALREADY listed on the Robinhood app.
Which one is the biggest market cap at the top of the next bull run?
1 day ago | [YT] | 3
View 0 replies
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