CodeMonkey Mike

Buying a fixed dollar amount of bitcoin on a regular schedule, no matter the price, is called what?

1 day ago |[YT] | 0

CodeMonkey Mike

September CPI came in at 3.7%, hotter than expected. The 5-year Treasury yield is above 5% for the first time since 2007. And the market STILL gives an October 28 rate hike only about a one-in-three shot. I do not get the pause camp. Where do you land?

1 day ago |[YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

Benjamin Cowen's four-year cycle model says the Bitcoin bottom lands in Q4 2026, October the most likely month. Bitcoin's ($BTC) low this year printed on July 1 at about $57.7K.

The four-year cycle zombies cannot explain this market. Here is what actually moved it, and what I am doing about it.

In late May, with Bitcoin around $75K, Cowen laid out the cycle math: the last top fell inside the day count of the two prior cycles, so the bottom should arrive in the fourth quarter. Then Bitcoin ran above the May high in September, up to about $87K, and by his own words acceptance above that level 'improves the bull case substantially'. The king of the four-year cycle crowd was staring at a chart that broke his model.

I was not perplexed. People were front-running the October bottom. A lot of holders who missed the lows all year looked at July, decided the bottom was in, and were not going to wait for a calendar. I have said this on every stream since January: the October bottom is self-defeating. Because the zombies, and the people front-running them, all plan to buy in October, the actual low prints BEFORE October, and their own demand is the reason October never gets to be the reddest month.

You cannot see that on a chart. You also cannot chart an inflation shock. If gasoline had not jumped 9.1% in September alone and CPI had not come in at 3.7%, we would be talking about rate cuts right now instead of a hike, and this market would be flying. That is not a four-year cycle. That is the world.

Last November they sold Bitcoin below the 50-week SMA and called it a bear market. In September they pushed it back above. Same chart, opposite story, and the thing that changed was not the calendar.

So here is what I do about it. I do not wait for October. Kaspa ($KAS) at about 3.7 cents is the lowest level of the week and still up on the month, and I treat every red day as a DCA day: fair launch, no premine, proof of work, about 82% under its all-time high. The zombies are waiting for a bottom that already printed. Kaspa Maxis are stacking.

Never financial advice.

Forked question: did the 2026 Bitcoin bottom already print in July, or does the four-year cycle still get its October low? Pick one and tell me why.

Click that like button and click the subscribe button if you are done waiting on a calendar.

Skip the Carousel

1 2 3 4 5

1 day ago |[YT] | 2

CodeMonkey Mike

You buy a breakout, then price instantly reverses and dumps back down. What is that called?

1 day ago |[YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

Kaspa ($KAS) is at about 3.7 cents this week: its lowest level of the week, still up on the month, about 82% under its all-time high. I called it another great buy on stream, and I also said the whole market might go lower from here if the rate hike gets front-run. So what are you doing with Kaspa right now?

1 day ago |[YT] | 0

CodeMonkey Mike

September CPI came in at 3.7%, hotter than expected, the 5-year Treasury yield is above 5% for the first time since 2007... and the market still gives an October 28 rate hike about a one-in-three shot.

I do not get the pause camp. But here is the part that matters for your bags: the hike does not hit the market on the 28th. It hits before.

Start with the print. Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September alone and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August. Core came in at 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, both above forecasts, and gasoline alone jumped 9.1%. The Fed already hiked on September 16, its first hike in three years, to 3.75% to 4.00%. Hike odds for October 28 roughly doubled on the CPI release, from about 20% to about 35%, and a hike by December is priced at better than 95%.

Now the bond market. The 5-year yield is above 5%, its highest since 2007, and the 10-year is above 5.2%. The US government is paying its highest rate to borrow for five years since before the 2008 crisis. That is not a pause signal. The bond market already hiked.

So why did stocks drop only about 1% on the print, and why is Bitcoin ($BTC) still holding about $81K? Because this is how hikes work: they get front-run, not reacted to. If the market decides the hike is coming, it sells now, over the next two weeks, and then does nothing on the 28th. It might even go UP on the day the hike lands, and everybody scratches their head.

That is my read. Bitcoin is sitting in a channel at about $81K with the 50-week SMA about $4K below at roughly $77K. A visit down there is a 5% move; for Bitcoin that is a normal week. And there is a floor under the red candles: everybody who waited all year for an 'October dip' is buying every one of them.

PPI is next. If producer prices come in soft, the pause camp gets its argument. If they come in hot, the front-run starts in earnest, and the people who bought the first red candle find out what a real one looks like.

Never financial advice.

Personal stake question: if the hike lands on October 28 and Bitcoin is GREEN that day, do you believe the front-run theory, or do you call it a fakeout? Tell me which one and why.

Click that like button and click the subscribe button if you want the macro read before the headline hits.

Skip the Carousel

1 2 3 4 5

1 day ago |[YT] | 3

CodeMonkey Mike

Traders wait for a pullback to the golden ratio on a Fibonacci retracement. Which level is it?

4 days ago |[YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

CPI and PPI both move crypto when they print. What does PPI stand for?

4 days ago |[YT] | 1

CodeMonkey Mike

$TAO at about $272 is a steal.

Bittensor is about 64% under its all-time high of $757 at about a $3.1B market cap, and AI is the whole narrative of this decade. There is no better pure AI play in crypto than $TAO. Not an AI meme, not an agent token... the network itself.

Long term I think Bittensor goes insanely high. What am I missing?

#Bittensor #TAO

5 days ago |[YT] | 10

CodeMonkey Mike

Kaspa did not flinch this week. $KAS sat flat at about 4.1 cents while Bitcoin went red, $TAO dropped about 6% and the memes got wiped. Up about 15% on the month and still about 80% under its all-time high. So what is Kaspa doing here?

5 days ago |[YT] | 3