Sunfortzone

✨ 比黃金更抗跌？
👜 從 Birkin（柏金包）溢價 看
💎 奢侈品護城河的「終極護城河」

有關 Birkin 或 Kelly（凱莉包） 的價格，必須先釐清一個奢侈品界的真相 👀：
👉 「專櫃定價」只是入場門檻，真正的取得成本往往 遠高於此 💸

這兩款包的價格會受到多種因素影響：
📏 尺寸
🐂 皮革材質
✨ 五金（金 / 銀）
🛍️ 購買管道

以下是 2025–2026 年市場預估價格（歐元＋台幣約略換算）👇

🏬 專櫃門市定價（Retail Price）

如果你運氣極好 🍀，能直接在愛馬仕專櫃以「原價」購入，價格大約是：

👜 Kelly 25（普皮：Epsom / Togo）
💶 €9,500 – €10,500
🇹🇼 約 NT$ 330,000 – 370,000

👜 Birkin 25（普皮）
💶 €9,000 – €10,000
🇹🇼 約 NT$ 320,000 – 350,000

👜 Birkin 30（普皮）
💶 €10,500 – €11,500
🇹🇼 約 NT$ 370,000 – 410,000

⚠️ 注意：
🐊 鱷魚皮、🦆 鴕鳥皮、🦎 蜥蜴皮等「特殊皮革」
💥 價格通常是普皮的 3–5 倍以上
🚀 起跳價多半 超過 NT$ 1,500,000

📊 價值投資者的視角
🔍 隱形成本 × 真實溢價

從投資角度來看，不能只看「標價」❌
而是要看：

📌 取得成本
📌 轉售價值

🔗 配比制度（Spends over Ratio）

在多數地區：
❌ 無法直接指定購買 Birkin / Kelly
✅ 必須先購買其他商品（絲巾、珠寶、家具、手錶等）

📈 配貨比 通常落在 1 : 1.5 ～ 1 : 2

💡 實際成本怎麼算？
👜 表面上一個 35 萬的 Birkin
🛍️ 可能要先花 50–70 萬配貨
💰 總投入金額 ≈ NT$ 100 萬

🔄 二手 / 轉售市場價格（Resale Value）

因為專櫃極度難買 😮‍💨
🔥 全新＋熱門色（黑、金、大象灰）

在二手精品市場或拍賣平台（如 Christie’s）：
📈 通常可賣到
👉 專櫃價的 150% – 200%

🏰 為什麼它這麼貴？
奢侈品的「終極護城河」

🧵 工時成本
👨‍🔧 一個包由 一名工匠
⏳ 花費 18–25 小時 純手工縫製
🚫 產能極度受限，無法量產

📉 抗跌屬性
📆 過去 40 年
📊 Birkin 的價值增長
在某些時期 甚至超越黃金 🪙 與 S&P 500 📈

💎 這也是為什麼——
在價值投資者眼中
👜 Birkin 不只是包
而是一種 「另類資產」

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0

Sunfortzone

LVMH 買不到的那家公司：愛馬仕如何用制度擋下惡意收購

愛馬仕（Hermès）的「股份兩合公司（SCA, Société en Commandite par Actions）」架構，正是其最核心、也最成功的反惡意收購防線之一。

一、什麼是「股份兩合公司（SCA）」？

SCA 是一種法國特有、介於股份公司與合夥制之間的公司型態，同時存在兩種身分的股東：

1️⃣ 無限責任合夥人（Commandités）

握有公司經營權與決策權

對公司債務負「無限責任」

通常是創辦家族或其控股公司

不能被股東會輕易撤換

👉 在愛馬仕：

關鍵是 Émile Hermès SARL

由愛馬仕家族成員控制

掌握董事會與經營權

2️⃣ 有限責任股東（Commanditaires）

一般上市公司股東（你我投資人）

只負有限責任

有分紅權，但幾乎沒有經營控制權

👉 愛馬仕的股票，就是這一層的股份。

二、SCA 架構為什麼這麼強？（核心優點）
✅ 1. 幾乎「免疫」惡意收購

這是最關鍵的一點。

即使：

外部公司在市場上買下 50%、70%，甚至 90% 的股票

仍然無法控制公司經營權

因為：

經營權 ≠ 股權
經營權掌握在「無限責任合夥人」手上

📌 這也是 LVMH 當年收購愛馬仕失敗的根本原因。

✅ 2. 家族長期掌權，不被資本市場綁架

SCA 讓管理層：

不必迎合短期 EPS、季度成長

可以犧牲短期規模，換取品牌稀缺性與百年工藝

👉 完美契合愛馬仕：

限量供給

手工製作

嚴控擴張速度

✅ 3. 經營權極度穩定，策略連續性極高

董事長、執行長 不隨股權波動

不會因市場情緒或投資人壓力而「換人救市」

這在奢侈品這種：

品牌資產＞資本效率

需要「數十年一致性」的產業
尤其重要。

✅ 4. 家族「與公司命運綁在一起」

無限責任的設計很關鍵：

家族對公司債務負無限責任

決策更保守、更重視風險控管

不容易亂擴張、亂併購

👉 這也是愛馬仕：

幾乎不做大型併購

現金流極乾淨

資產負債表極保守
的重要原因。

三、那對一般投資人有沒有缺點？

老實說：有，而且是結構性的

❌ 1. 投資人「幾乎沒有話語權」

你買的是「經濟權」

不是「控制權」

公司治理高度家族導向

❌ 2. 折價或溢價完全取決於「信任」

市場只能：

信任家族

或給予估值溢價

一旦家族治理失誤，修正空間有限

👉 幸好，愛馬仕是「教科書等級的例外」。

四、SCA = 愛馬仕護城河的一部分

從投資角度看，SCA 對愛馬仕的意義不是法律結構，而是：

「制度化的長期主義」

它確保：

品牌不會被賣

工藝不會被稀釋

公司不會被金融化

📌 所以市場給愛馬仕的，從來不是：

規模溢價
而是：

治理溢價 + 品牌稀缺溢價

五、一句話總結

愛馬仕的 SCA 架構，讓「擁有公司」和「控制公司」徹底分離，使其幾乎不可能被惡意收購，並強制公司以百年視角經營，這正是它能成為奢侈品產業最極端、也最成功的長期主義案例。

如果你願意，我也可以幫你：

對比 愛馬仕 vs LVMH vs Kering 的治理結構

或從 價值投資角度，解釋為什麼 SCA 值得給估值溢價

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0

Sunfortzone

【將來銀行  邀請好友活動（114/10–12）】

立馬開戶: sunfortzones.com/next_bank_refer_articles

📅 活動期間
114/10/1 ~ 114/12/31

👤 邀請人資格
已有將來銀行帳戶者。

🙋‍♂️ 受邀人資格
本國 18 歲以上、從未成功開立將來銀行帳戶者。

🎁 活動獎勵內容

1. 邀請人獎勵

每邀請 1 人成功開戶＋綁定裝置 → 拿 NT$168
（限量 5,000 份，受邀人完成綁定後 3 個工作天匯入帳戶）
單月成功邀請 5 人以上 → 送迪士尼 20 吋登機箱 1 個
（限量 1,000 個，每人限領 1 個，約 4 個月後寄出）

📌 注意：一定要在同一個月內達成 5 人才算符合資格。

2. 受邀人獎勵

成功使用邀請碼開戶＋綁定裝置 → 可參加新戶「消費滿額送迪士尼登機箱」活動。

📌 如何參加（流程簡化版）
1邀請人到 APP「個人中心 → 揪好友拿獎勵」
取得專屬連結／QRCode／邀請碼給好友。

2 受邀人
用連結或在開戶流程中輸入邀請碼
完成開戶＋裝置綁定

3完成任務後
邀請人拿 168 元或登機箱
受邀人享新戶滿額贈

⚠️ 注意事項（簡短版）
受邀人必須是「新戶」，曾開戶再銷戶的人不能拿新戶禮。
開戶資料（手機／身分證）需與邀請綁定時一致。
完成開戶後無法修改邀請碼，也不能補登。
活動獎品不可更換，數量有限若無法提供可換等值商品。
所得屬「其他所得」，銀行會依法申報。

2 months ago | [YT] | 0

Sunfortzone

這張表整理的是台股淨值規模前十大的 ETF，特別比較了它們近一年的殖利率表現。從數字來看，整體大致分成三個層級。
首先，表現最亮眼的是群益台灣精選高息（00919），近一年的殖利率高達 13.3%，遙遙領先其他同類型基金。緊接著是元大高股息（0056），也有 11.6% 的水準，算是投資人熟知的「老牌高息 ETF」，穩定度與殖利率都很吸引人。第三名則是元大台灣高息低波（00713），殖利率 10.5%，它主打「低波動、高股息」，在近一年的配息表現上也相當不錯。
中段班的表現落在 9% 左右，像是國泰永續高股息（00878），雖然不到前幾名的水準，但仍交出 9.3% 的殖利率，對於追求長期穩健配息的投資人來說，仍是一個可靠的選擇。至於群益 ESG 投等債 20+（00937B），殖利率 6.6%，也在水準之上，但相比高股息 ETF，吸引力略遜一籌。

最後一個層級，大多落在 5% 左右的水準，包括元大台灣50（0050）5.7%、復華台灣科技優息（00929）5.9%、元大美債20年（00679B）5.1%、國泰20年美債（00687B）5.5%，以及富邦台50（006208）僅 1.5%，是所有 ETF 當中殖利率最低的。
總體來說，這十檔 ETF 呈現了明顯的分化：如果追求高配息，00919、0056、00713 無疑是近期的明星；若偏好穩健或分散風險，中段與低殖利率的標的仍有其存在價值，但在「近一年殖利率」這個單一指標上，顯然沒有前者亮眼。

台股ETF統整表:
sunfortzone.com/?_inputs_&table_vt=%22%E5%8F%B0%E8…

5 months ago | [YT] | 1

Sunfortzone

From a 10-year long-term holding perspective:



- Focused investing outperforms market-cap-weighted ETFs.
- Market-cap-weighted ETFs outperform high-dividend ETFs.
- High-dividend ETFs outperform bond ETFs.



Assume an investor allocated $100K to each of these four strategies 10 years ago:



- Focus Investing is represented by Apple (AAPL).
- Market-cap-weighted ETF is represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).
- High-dividend ETF is represented by the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG).
- Bond ETF is represented by the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND).



After 10 years, the final portfolio values of these strategies are:


- AAPL: $884K
- VOO: $342K
- VIG: $302K
- BND: $116K



Ranked by geometric average annual return:



1. Focused Investing: 24.4%
2. Market-cap-weighted ETF: 13.3%
3. High-dividend ETF: 11.9%
4. Bond ETF: 1.5%



Which one do you favor?

1 year ago | [YT] | 0

Sunfortzone

散熱雙雄奇鋐和雙鴻在這股AI破壞式創新中功不可沒，持續從氣冷往水冷發展!

1 year ago | [YT] | 2

Sunfortzone

大家好，請大家有空幫我們做個3~5分鐘的問券，我們想要了解大家對手機，房子，車子與伴侶的偏好，感謝大家

forms.gle/JXtxuxiw2crmCuaQ7

1 year ago | [YT] | 2

Sunfortzone

Global Semiconductors Giants Quarterly Sales Comparisons with TSMC, Intel, ASML etc



Global Semiconductors Giants Quarterly Sales Comparisons



In this video, we compare the quarterly sales for the major players in the semiconductors industry. Those big companies, ordered from the largest quarterly sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 to the smallest, are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, ASML, Texas Instrument, STMicroelectronics, Micron, and XNP Semiconductor. The data is from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Sales amounts are all in million USD.


The key insight in this video is that since the second quarter of 2022, TSMC beats Intel in terms of quarterly sales. TSMC has the advantage of more advanced chip making technology and higher yield rates.




Welcome to Sunfortzone, our goal is to help value investors understand more about their investments.
If you want to grow on the path of value investing, please subscribe to our channel and click the like button on the video.
Wall streets make money on activities, we, as value investors, make money on inactivities.



Here we would like to recommend a great book called The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. The book is suggested by value investor Warren Buffet. As Warren Buffet said, Chapters 8 and 20 in this book have been the bedrock of my investing activities for more than 60 years. I suggest that all investors read those chapters and reread them every time the market has been especially strong or weak. The link of the ebook is in the description below, you can read it a little bit for free in the Kindle.




Quarterly sales refer to the revenue generated by a company over a period of three months, typically one quarter of a fiscal year. In financial statement analysis, quarterly sales are an important metric that investors and analysts use to evaluate a company's performance and growth potential. Sales is also an important metric to evaluate how much value a company can deliver to the mmarketplace.


Samsung, a Korean semiconductor company, is one of the big players in the chip making industry. However, as of now, we're unable to find reliable quarterly sales data of Korean companies. We're eager to parse Korean fundamental data in the future.


Brief Introduction of the Global Semiconductors Industry


The global semiconductor industry refers to the design, development, production, and sale of semiconductor devices, which are used in a wide range of electronic products such as computers, smartphones, automotive electronics, and many others. The industry is highly competitive and dynamic, with constant innovation and technological advancements driving growth and change.


The semiconductor industry has experienced significant growth over the past few decades, with increasing demand for electronic products worldwide. The industry is dominated by a few large players, with companies such as Intel, Samsung, and TSMC holding significant market share.

The industry is characterized by rapid changes in technology and high R&D expenses, with companies investing heavily in research to develop new and innovative semiconductor products. The industry is also highly cyclical, with demand influenced by factors such as global economic conditions, consumer spending, and technological innovation.

The semiconductor industry has a significant impact on global economies, providing high-paying jobs and driving innovation in a wide range of industries. The industry has also faced challenges related to supply chain disruptions, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks, highlighting the importance of resilience and flexibility in the face of global uncertainties.


Introduction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, also called TSMC, is a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. It is the world's most valuable semiconductor company, the world's largest dedicated independent pure-play semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan's largest companies, with its headquarters and main operations located in the Hsinchu Science Park in Hsinchu. It is majority owned by foreign investors.


Founded in Taiwan in 1987 by Morris Chang, TSMC was the world's first dedicated semiconductor foundry and has long been the leading company in its field. When Chang retired in 2018, after 31 years of TSMC leadership, Mark Liu became chairman and C. C. Wei became Chief Executive. It has been listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange since 1993. In 1997 it became the first Taiwanese company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange as symbol TSM. Since 1994, TSMC has had a compound annual growth rate of 17.4% in revenue and a compound annual growth rate of 16.1% in earnings.



Most of the leading fabless semiconductor companies such as AMD, Apple, ARM, Broadcom, Marvell, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Nvidia, are customers of TSMC, as are emerging companies such as Allwinner Technology, HiSilicon, Spectra7, and UNISOC. Leading programmable logic device companies Xilinx and previously Altera also make use of TSMC's foundry services. Some integrated device manufacturers that have their own fabrication facilities, such as Intel, NXP, STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments, outsource some of their production to TSMC. At least one semiconductor company, LSI, re-sells TSMC wafers through its ASIC design services and design IP portfolio.


TSMC has a global capacity of about thirteen million 300 mm-equivalent wafers per year as of 2020 and makes chips for customers with process nodes from 2 microns to 5 nanometres. TSMC was the first foundry to market 7-nanometre and 5-nanometre production capabilities, used by the 2020 Apple A14 and M1 SoCs and the MediaTek Dimensity 8100, and the first to commercialize extreme ultraviolet lithography technology in high volume, also called EUV.


Thanks for spending your valuable time with us! If you like our content, please like and subscribe to our channel to get more valuable content. Furthermore, please visit our website for more data-driven insights, and join our Discord server to discuss with other investors.

2 years ago | [YT] | 2