Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

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The US M2 money supply tells you more about rising asset prices than most investors realize.

This chart plots M2 from 1959 to 2025. The starting value in 1959 was $286,590,000,000. By 2025 that figure had reached $22,115,000,000,000, a 77-fold increase over 66 years. The curve is not linear; it bends sharply upward, compounding at an annual rate of 6.8%.

That 6.8% annual growth rate is the core point. When you see house prices, stock indices, or gold rising over decades, the instinct is to credit the underlying asset. But the chart suggests a simpler explanation: more dollars are entering circulation at a fairly predictable pace, lifting nominal prices across the board.

For context, the official inflation rate is cited at roughly 3.1% per year. The monetary base, by this measure, has grown at more than twice that pace. The gap between those two figures is worth sitting with before drawing conclusions about any asset's real return.

#USM2MoneySupply #USM2 #M2 #MoneySupply #Inflation #Macro #M2MoneySupply #MonetaryPolicy #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Investing

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: the-bitcoin-strategy.com/r/u1QcJk0Z

If you want to see how I actually think through a position in real time, there is a place where that happens more openly than here. Free Live Trade gives you a look at one of my live positions at no cost, just an email address. The conversations and breakdowns there tend to go a bit deeper than what fits in a community post. Worth checking out if you are curious about the process behind the calls, not just the calls themselves.

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

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8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Do you check your portfolio every day?

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/QQCj8i4vfoI

The SOL/BTC daily chart reveals something important about how Solana actually behaves relative to the broader crypto market.

The chart spans from mid-2020 through early 2027 on a daily timeframe. The key observation is the behavior since mid-2021: after an enormous initial outperformance, Solana has settled into a defined trading range against Bitcoin, marked by the horizontal dotted line running across the chart. As of January 24, 2025, price sits roughly in the middle of that range.

The analytical takeaway here is not that Solana is failing, but that it functions as a leveraged expression of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin rises, Solana tends to amplify that move. When Bitcoin falls, Solana falls harder. This is not a growth narrative for SOL specifically; it is a beta trade on Bitcoin's direction.

For long-term SOL outperformance versus Bitcoin to materialize, the prerequisite appears to be sustained Bitcoin appreciation first. Without that, the range-bound dynamic is likely to persist.

#Solana #SOL #Altcoin #Crypto #Macro #Cryptocurrency #Investing

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: the-bitcoin-strategy.com/r/afmviA8Z

💀 Altcoins Are Collapsing!


Watch: https://youtu.be/8PrMQsIcyQk

💎 Premium analysis: the-bitcoin-strategy.com/r/K3ZdGZ9T

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/QQCj8i4vfoI

One key on-chain signal suggests Bitcoin's current bear market may not be over yet.

This chart from Checkonchain plots Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) alongside price going back to roughly 2015. The colored bands indicate market sentiment zones: Capitulation (red, below zero), Hope/Fear (yellow), Optimism (orange), Belief/Denial (green), and Euphoria/Greed (blue). When NUPL turns negative, the average Bitcoin holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.

The historical pattern is consistent across every prior cycle visible here, around 2015, 2019, and 2022: NUPL dipped below zero before each bear market found its floor and reversed.

As of the most recent data shown, NUPL has not yet crossed into negative territory. The realized price, the average cost basis across all Bitcoin, currently sits at $53,000. While price remains above that level, the conditions that historically preceded a lasting recovery have not been met.

This does not mean further downside is guaranteed, but it does mean that one of the most reliable cycle indicators has not yet flashed the all-clear.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Macro #OnChainAnalysis #Cryptocurrency #Investing

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/rvzgRehkg2k

BONK priced in SOL is sitting at the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel, and that context matters for anyone watching Solana-ecosystem meme coins.

The daily chart shows BONKUSDT divided by SOLUSDT forming a clear descending parallel channel. Price has consistently respected both the upper and lower rails across several peaks and troughs, with each rally failing at progressively lower highs. The most recent move has pushed the ratio down to touch the bottom of that channel, a level that has historically acted as a meaningful support zone.

The key analytical point is that BONK has been a long-term underperformer relative to SOL, largely driven by token dilution expanding supply. With that dilution cycle now maturing, the supply pressure may ease. If demand picks up alongside a renewed meme coin narrative on Solana, the ratio has room to recover toward the upper channel boundary, representing a potential outperformance of more than 260% from current levels according to the channel's own geometry.

That is not a price target, it is a range defined by the structure itself. Onchain data would need to confirm whether genuine demand is building before treating this as actionable.

#Bonk #Altcoin #Crypto #Solana #Macro #Cryptocurrency #Investing

8 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/cQpibL_aIUw

I'm shorting Solana. Here's exactly why.

→ Crypto media is lying about Solana's health
→ Solana's entire economy runs on one thing


#SolanaAnalysis #BitcoinCycles #CryptoMacro #Bitcoin

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8 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: the-bitcoin-strategy.com/r/3RhB70ya

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