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Sahil Bhadviya
After Mar'20 phase, ICICI Prudential Equity Valuation Index is in green zone i.e. invest in equities.
20 hours ago | [YT] | 209
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Sahil Bhadviya
Its saturday night and I casually scrolled X. Ended up watching this brilliant 28 min discussion on Indian stock market.
Some amazing take away:
i) On New age cos:
Q: Are "New Age" companies and quick-commerce startups viable long-term investments?
Raamdeo Agrawal: I am betting on a permanent change in consumer behavior. While these companies aren't profitable now and valuations are challenging, the scale is on their side. I have bought into a few of them, expecting that one or two will eventually emerge as massive winners.
Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: I believe many of these new-age companies are a "gigantic joke" being played on investors. They talk about "unit economics" that don't actually result in profit. Aspiration isn't enough to make money; you need profits, reasonable valuations, and honest management - not just a fancy suit and a story.
What a contrast of opinion!
ii) On IT cos:
Q: How should investors view the impact of AI on Indian IT services?
Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: There is a lot of hype, but the impact will be profound, similar to the steam engine or the internet. However, the diffusion of AI will be slow because companies need time to build productive applications. Indian IT companies are run by smart people who are already pivoting their strategies. While growth might slow during the transition, the sector is far from dead; it will likely become a low-volatility, moderate-return business over a five-year perspective.
iii) On buy and hold strategy
Q: Given the recent underperformance of long-time market "darlings" like HDFC Bank, DMart, and Asian Paints, is the "buy and hold" strategy dead in an age of AI disruption and hyper-competition?
Raamdeo Agrawal: No, buy and hold is the only way serious money is made in the stock market. The real issue isn't the strategy itself, but rather that most investors don't understand the underlying value of what they are buying. Promoters make the most money because they are forced to stay with their companies for decades, whereas outside investors often lack the conviction to hold through periods of irrational price corrections.
Q: Why should "buy and hold" be viewed differently today than it was 25 years ago?
Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: Several factors have changed the context of this strategy. First, the period of competitive advantage has shortened dramatically; companies no longer have the enduring moats they once did. Second, India is now a much more open market with intense domestic and international competition. Third, disruptive technologies can now cause permanent, unrecoverable damage to established businesses. Finally, there is a misalignment of management; the rise of stock options has led many leaders to prioritize short-term results over long-term growth
iv) On current market condition
Q: Is the current market volatility an opportunity for long-term wealth creation?
Ramdeo: This is a compelling market. Historically, the Indian market has done 14–15% compounded. As the market goes down, your prospective return goes up. If you buy during these corrections, you have a high chance of making 17–18% at the index level over the next five years.
Sanjoy Bhattacharyya:: This is an opportunity of a lifetime. Money is made at turning points, and markets are mean-reverting. Success here is about character and managing fear and greed rather than just macro wisdom
Finally, kudos to the host N Mahalakshmi. She has asked exceptional questions. I absolutely love her podcasts and interviews.
Hope you will find it useful. Have a good weekend folks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN8KC...
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 54
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