Weather On da Fly

🌩️ SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook — September 1, 2026
A dynamic setup is unfolding today across multiple regions of the U.S., with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting Slight and Marginal Risk areas for severe thunderstorms. Here’s what you need to know:

🔥 Central & Northern Plains / Midwest → PA, NY, NJ
A strengthening mid‑level jet and rich moisture (dewpoints in the 70s!) will fuel strong instability — over 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE south of a warm front. This environment supports supercells and organized line segments capable of:

Damaging wind gusts

Isolated hail

A couple tornadoes, especially near the Hudson Valley into NE PA/Northern NJ where low‑level shear is enhanced.

🌧️ Morning convection may linger across NY/NJ, but afternoon heating will quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of incoming shortwave energy.

🌪️ Central/Northern Plains
A stalled front lifting northward will help deepen a surface low across NE/SD. With strong heating and increasing moisture, storms may redevelop along and north of the boundary. Expect:

Isolated severe storms

Damaging winds

Hail potential

Possible clustering into the evening

⚡ Great Lakes / OH Valley
Additional storms may form late tonight into early Wednesday with elevated instability (2000 J/kg MUCAPE). Damaging winds remain possible if storms organize.

📌 Bottom Line
If you’re in the Midwest, Great Lakes, PA, NY, or NJ, stay weather‑aware today. The environment supports multiple severe hazards, including a low tornado risk in localized areas.
Weather On Da Fly will keep you updated as conditions evolve. Stay safe and stay tuned! 🌪️📡

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#SPC #Day1Outlook #SevereWeather #WeatherOnDaFly #StormPredictionCenter #MidwestWeather #GreatLakesWeather #NYWeather #NJWeather #PAWeather #PlainsWeather #Tornado #Hail #DamagingWinds #WeatherUpdate #Meteorology #StormChasing #Wx

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4 hours ago | [YT] | 8

Weather On da Fly

*** September 1, 2026***
🌧️ Tropical Storm Edouard – Advisory 3A

Edouard continues its push toward the Northwest Gulf Coast tonight, and strengthening is still expected before landfall later today. Communities along the Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana should stay alert as conditions will deteriorate through the morning.

🔹 Current Status (1 AM CDT)
• Winds: 40 mph
• Movement: WNW at 7 mph
• Pressure: 1005 mb
• Location: 85 miles SE of Cameron, LA

🔹 What’s New
• No changes to watches/warnings this update
• Hurricane Watch: High Island → Cameron
• Storm Surge Warning: Upper TX Coast → SW Louisiana
• Strengthening still likely before landfall
• Rapid weakening expected once inland tonight

🔹 Zones Impacted by the Core of the Storm
• Upper Texas Coast (High Island → Port Bolivar → Galveston area)
• Southwest Louisiana Coast (Cameron → Johnson Bayou → Holly Beach)
• Sabine Pass Region
• Coastal Marshes & Bays directly east/west of landfall point

These areas can expect the strongest winds, storm surge, and the most intense rain bands as Edouard approaches the coast.

Stay weather-aware and keep your devices charged. I’ll continue tracking Edouard closely.

#Edouard #TropicalStormEdouard #GulfCoastWeather #LAwx #TXwx #StormSurge #WeatherOnDaFly #Tropics2026 #HurricaneSeason2026

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5 hours ago | [YT] | 3

Weather On da Fly

🌧️ TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD – ADVISORY #3
10 PM CDT – Monday, August 31, 2026
🌀 Edouard continues to strengthen as it approaches the Northwest Gulf Coast. Confidence is increasing for a landfall Tuesday, with impacts spreading into SE Texas and SW Louisiana.

🔥 Key Points
➡️ Edouard now at 40 mph, moving WNW at 7 mph
➡️ Storm Surge Warning from High Island, TX → Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA
➡️ Hurricane Watch from High Island, TX → Cameron, LA
➡️ Tropical Storm Warning from Port Bolivar, TX → Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA
➡️ Tropical‑storm‑force winds extend 25 miles from the center
➡️ Additional strengthening is expected before landfall

📍 Current Position
28.6°N, 91.8°W

125 miles SE of Cameron, LA

155 miles SE of Port Arthur, TX

⚠️ What to Expect
Edouard is forecast to turn slightly more northwest on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds, heavy rain, rising water, and coastal surge into the NW Gulf Coast.
Landfall is expected Tuesday, followed by inland movement into SE Texas Tuesday night.

If you live along the Texas/Louisiana border region, prepare for tropical storm conditions, possible hurricane‑force gusts, and dangerous coastal flooding in surge‑prone areas.

🧭 Stay Ready
Charge devices, secure loose outdoor items, and stay tuned for updates overnight and into Tuesday.
Weather On Da Fly will keep you covered with every advisory.

#TropicalStormEdouard #Edouard #GulfCoastWeather #TexasWeather #LouisianaWeather #StormSurge #HurricaneWatch #TropicalUpdate #WeatherOnDaFly #NHC #GulfCoast

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8 hours ago (edited) | [YT] | 11

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Tropical Storm Edouard — 7 PM CDT Update (Advisory #2A)
Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Edouard as the system continues to organize in the Gulf tonight. Edouard is inching WNW toward the northwest Gulf Coast, and additional strengthening is expected before landfall on Tuesday.

The storm now carries 40 mph winds, with tropical‑storm‑force winds extending 25 miles from the center. Despite its compact size, Edouard is capable of producing coastal flooding, rough surf, and pockets of heavy rainfall along the Texas and Louisiana coastline.

⚠️ Tropical Storm Warning: Port Bolivar → Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
⚠️ Storm Surge Watch: High Island → Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

If you’re in the warning zones, make sure your preparations are wrapped up tonight. Conditions will begin to deteriorate early Tuesday as Edouard approaches the coast.

More updates coming as this system moves closer.

#Edouard #TropicalStormEdouard #GulfCoastWeather #TexasWeather #LouisianaWeather #StormSurge #Tropics2026 #WeatherOnDaFly

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11 hours ago | [YT] | 22

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Tropical Depression Five – Advisory #2 | Gulf Update: 4pm CDT
Tropical Depression Five continues to organize in the north‑central Gulf this afternoon, and conditions are expected to deteriorate along the Gulf Coast tonight into Tuesday. The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

📍 Current Position
28.2°N, 91.5°W

About 105 miles south of Morgan City, LA

Moving WNW at 6 mph

🌬️ Winds & Pressure
Max sustained winds: 35 mph

Pressure: 1011 mb

⚠️ Watches & Warnings
Tropical Storm Warning: Port Bolivar, TX → Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA

Storm Surge Watch: High Island, TX → Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA

🔥 Key Impacts (Tonight–Tuesday)
🌧️ Heavy Rainfall:
Bands will begin pushing into SE Louisiana and SE Texas tonight. Localized flooding possible, especially in poor drainage areas.

🌬️ Tropical‑Storm‑Force Winds:
Strong gusts expected along the upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana Tuesday. Power outages possible.

🌊 Storm Surge:
Water rises of 2–4 ft possible in surge‑prone areas from High Island to Cameron/Vermilion. Coastal roads may become impassable.

🌊 Marine Hazards:
Dangerous seas, rip currents, and increasing wave action across the northern Gulf.

🌀 Landfall Timing:
Center expected to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast Tuesday, then move inland into southeast Texas Tuesday night.

Stay weather‑aware and follow guidance from local officials as conditions begin to deteriorate.

#TD5 #TropicalDepressionFive #GulfWeather #LAwx #TXwx #NOLA #Houston #StormSurge #TropicalUpdate #NHC #WeatherOnDaFly

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14 hours ago (edited) | [YT] | 13

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Tropical Depression Five – Intermediate Advisory #1A
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows TD Five slowly organizing in the north‑central Gulf. Strengthening is expected, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

📍 Location (1 PM CDT):

28.0°N, 90.8°W

120 miles SSE of Morgan City, LA

230 miles SE of Port Arthur, TX

🌬️ Winds: 35 mph
📈 Trend: Expected to become a tropical storm tonight
➡️ Movement: WNW at 5 mph

The center is forecast to approach the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday, bringing increasing rain, wind, and coastal surge concerns to the warning area.

🌊 Storm Surge:
1–3 ft possible from High Island, TX to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA if peak surge coincides with high tide.

Residents along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coastline should prepare for tropical storm conditions within the next 24–36 hours and stay tuned for updates as TD Five strengthens.

#TD5 #TropicalDepressionFive #GulfWeather #LAwx #TXwx #TropicalUpdate #WeatherOnDaFly #NHC #TropicalStormWarning #GulfCoast

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17 hours ago | [YT] | 8

Weather On da Fly

🌊 Northern Gulf Satellite Update 5am CDT.

Invest 97L is almost certainly a tropical cyclone early this morning. I'm sure Air-force will find this has strengthened into a tropical storm when they fly out in a few more hours.

#Invest97L #GulfWeather #nola #neworleans #TropicalUpdate #NHC #LouisianaWeather #TexasWeather #WeatherOnDaFly #StormTracking #Edouard #GulfCoast

1 day ago | [YT] | 29

Weather On da Fly

🌩 SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook — August 31, 2026
Isolated severe storms are on the board today across multiple regions of the country, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting Marginal Risk areas stretching from the Central High Plains through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and another zone across the Lower Colorado River Valley & Great Basin.

A few key regions to watch:

🌪 Central High Plains → Nebraska
Strong heating and an approaching mid‑level disturbance will help spark storms near the Front Range by mid/late afternoon.
These storms may grow into clusters capable of severe outflow winds and hail over 1 inch, especially as they push into Nebraska.
This is the area with the highest conditional severe potential today.

🌧 Upper Midwest / Great Lakes
Moisture-rich air and pockets of instability (2000–3000 J/kg MUCAPE) could support isolated storms from Iowa → Wisconsin → northern Illinois.
Forcing is weak, so coverage will be limited — but any storm that forms could produce hail near or above 1 inch.

⛰ Lower Colorado River Valley / Great Basin
A couple of mid‑level disturbances will help fire storms across eastern Nevada, southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona.
Expect mainly severe wind gusts, with a few storms capable of transient supercell structure.

🌊 Southern Louisiana / Gulf Coast
SPC notes the disturbance off the Louisiana coast — but low‑level wind fields are not expected to support meaningful supercell potential through early Tuesday.
Still, keep an eye on NHC updates for any tropical developments.

⚠️ Bottom Line
Today’s severe threat is isolated but scattered across multiple regions.
If you’re in any highlighted area, stay weather-aware — especially late afternoon into tonight.

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#WeatherOnDaFly #SPC #Day1Outlook #SevereWeather #HighPlains #GreatLakes #ColoradoRiverValley #NebraskaWeather #MidwestWeather #StormPredictionCenter #WeatherUpdate #Hail #DamagingWinds #WeatherAlert #Meteorology

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1 day ago | [YT] | 21

Weather On da Fly

🌊 Northern Gulf Update 1am CDT — Invest 97L Strengthening & Closing In
Invest 97L continues to organize this morning in the northern Gulf, sitting just over 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast. Satellite data shows a small but concentrated core of storms, and environmental conditions remain favorable enough that the NHC expects additional development as it drifts west‑northwest toward the Upper Texas & Southwest Louisiana coasts.

A short‑lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or early Tuesday, with the next name on the list being Edouard. Interests from Port Arthur to Cameron Parish should stay alert — tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued later today.

Even without full development, 97L will deliver:

Locally heavy rainfall along the Upper TX & SW LA coasts

Gusty winds (30–35 mph observed)

Rough seas & minor coastal flooding potential

Increasing rain chances for Southeast Louisiana

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, which will give us a clearer picture of its structure and intensity.

📌 Key Points for Southeast Louisiana & the New Orleans Metro
Moisture from 97L will expand northward, bringing scattered tropical showers today and Tuesday.

Heaviest rainfall should remain offshore, but pockets of locally heavy rain are possible along the coast.

Conditions could change quickly — small Gulf systems like this can tighten and strengthen fast. Stay weather‑aware.

#Invest97L #GulfWeather #TropicalUpdate #NHC #LouisianaWeather #TexasWeather #WeatherOnDaFly #StormTracking #EdouardPotential #GulfCoast

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1 day ago | [YT] | 10

Weather On da Fly

🌊 Pacific Duo on the Move — Karina Strengthens, Lowell Steadies in Central Pacific
🌀 HURRICANE KARINA — ADVISORY #15
Karina continues powering through the Eastern Pacific as a major Category 3 hurricane, now packing 125 mph winds while moving west at 9 mph. The core remains well‑organized with a solid eyewall, and additional strengthening is still possible. Hurricane‑force winds extend 40 miles from the center, with tropical‑storm‑force winds reaching 125 miles outward.
Swells from Karina will continue pushing toward southwest Mexico and Baja California, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents over the next couple of days.

🌬️ TROPICAL STORM LOWELL — ADVISORY #14
Lowell is trekking westward across the Central Pacific with 50 mph winds, now located near 13.2°N, 143.3°W. The storm remains steady but is expected to gradually strengthen as it moves over warm waters. While Lowell poses no immediate land threat, it’s one to keep an eye on as guidance hints at potential intensification over the next 24–48 hours.

Stay tuned — the Pacific basin remains active, and we’ll keep you updated on every shift, wobble, and strengthening trend.

#Karina #Lowell #HurricaneKarina #TropicalStormLowell #PacificHurricanes #WeatherOnDaFly #TropicsWatch #NHC #CPHC #MajorHurricane #CentralPacific #BajaCalifornia #MexicoWeather #StormUpdate

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1 day ago | [YT] | 10