befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

On December 31st, 2025, I released a Wyckoff analysis on Baidu (BIDU) suggesting the "path of least resistance" was officially to the upside. Just two days into 2026, the price has already jumped 15%. 🚀



The Wyckoff Breakdown: Baidu has spent nearly 15 years in a "directionless" sideways phase, but the footprints of the "Smart Money" are finally clear.
The Accumulation Phase: Since late 2022, BIDU has been building a massive "cause" between $75 and $160. Supply has been systematically absorbed [04:54].
Successful Test: We saw a crucial test at the $74.71 level in early 2025 where volume dropped significantly, indicating supply was exhausted [05:23].
Sign of Strength (SOS): The recent move from $90 to $132 was backed by high volume (effort), showing perfect harmony with the price result [05:32].
The "Jump Across the Creek": The stock broke key resistance in late 2025 and has just finished testing the Last Point of Support (LPS) at $110 [06:12].
What's Next? With demand now exceeding supply, the near-term goal is to clear the $160 resistance line. According to the Law of Cause and Effect, the point-and-figure projections point to a major target:
🎯 Price Target: $275 - $290 [06:41]
This target aligns with long-term resistance seen on the 20-year chart. If the momentum continues, BIDU is one of the strongest candidates for a sustained uptrend in 2026.
Check out the full technical deep dive here:https://youtu.be/cSZ_Fn0NxLU?si=BMfDU...
I’d love to get your perspective—are you long on BIDU or waiting for the $160 breakout confirmation?

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

AMD is currently presenting a very compelling setup for swing traders and long-term investors alike. After a massive breakout in October, we are seeing a classic Wyckoff retest.
The Setup: The stock has retraced to the $213 - $220 range, which serves as our "Line in the Sand" or the Last Point of Support (LPS) [06:21]. As long as AMD holds this level on decreasing volume during the retest, the bullish thesis remains fully intact.


Why this looks like a strong swing trade:
Sign of Strength: We saw a massive "Change of Character" with nearly 700 million shares traded during the October breakout [06:05].
Cause vs. Effect: AMD has been building a "cause" within a 4-year reaccumulation range. Our Point & Figure computations suggest the "effect" (price target) could be between $336 and $402 [05:48].
Harmony: Price and volume are currently in harmony, suggesting that the "Composite Man" is ready for the next markup phase [04:39].
What to watch for: For confirmation of the next upswing, we want to see volume increase as the price pushes back toward the $270 level [06:54]. If it holds the $213-$220 support and begins to turn, the path to the $336+ targets is open.
Full Technical Breakdown: I’ve done a deep dive into AMD’s 20-year history, previous target hits ($80 and $256), and the current reaccumulation math in this video:https://youtu.be/D-vGhtPmCQo?si=UgIy9...
Would love to hear your take on the semiconductor sector right now. Is AMD finally ready to lead the pack again?

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

Looking at the Silver ETF through the lens of the Wyckoff Method, we are seeing strong harmony between price and volume. Specifically, the Third Principle (Effort vs. Result) is showing that the supply has been fully absorbed by "Smart Money" over a 15-year accumulation base (2013-2024).

Key Takeaways from the Analysis:
Effort vs. Result: The recent volume surge relative to price movement confirms a "Sign of Strength" (SOS), indicating the path of least resistance is now officially to the upside [06:11].
The Cause: Silver has spent over a decade building a massive "cause." According to Wyckoff's Law of Cause and Effect, a 15-year base supports a massive move [04:15].
Price Targets: * Short-term: $84 – $95 [08:24]
Long-term: $122 – $139 [08:31]
The breakout past the $48.35 range is critical. We might see a retest of the $47-$50 zone as a Last Point of Support (LPS) before the next parabolic leg up [07:50].
I’ve put together a full breakdown of the macro charts and the sub-count calculations here:
Watch the full analysis here:https://youtu.be/Cn7JPrFVzUQ?si=HpGbm...
Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think the $50 resistance turns into permanent support this time?

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

IEX | Indian Energy Exchange - In Distribution - Breaking 163 support with huge volume will trigger sell off

IEX Looks at the Sign of weakness and set to enter into downtrend. It is currently in Last point of Supply , testing demand, high volume with narrow price bar , Lot of supply absorbed, Need to wait and see price action in coming weeks.

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

Hey everyone,



After focusing on the US and Chinese markets lately, I’m shifting gears back to a home-grown story that has evolved from a "recovery play" to a genuine growth powerhouse:
Suzlon Energy.



Whether you’re a long-term investor looking for value or a trader hunting for momentum, this analysis covers both the macro fundamentals and a deep technical dive using the Wyckoff Method.

1. Fundamental Overview: The Turnaround is Real
Suzlon isn't just surviving; it’s dominating.

Market Leadership: They are India's #1 wind energy provider with a massive 32% market share.

Explosive Profits: We just saw a 538% YoY jump in net profit.

The Debt Miracle: Once crippled by debt, Suzlon is now completely debt-free, sitting on a net cash position of ₹1,480 Cr (as of Jan 2026).

Revenue Visibility: A record-breaking 6.2 GW domestic order book provides solid revenue visibility for the next 3 years.

New Tech Catalyst: The S144 turbine (3MW series) is the game-changer, now making up over 80% of their current orders.

Margins: Operating margins have climbed to 18.6% (up from 14.1% last year).

2. Technical Analysis: The Wyckoff Perspective
I use the Wyckoff Method because it focuses on leading indicators (Price + Volume) rather than lagging ones. Here’s what the 20-year monthly chart is telling us:

The Markdown (2007–2012): A brutal crash from ₹319 down to ₹5.

The Accumulation (2013–2023): A decade-long "Green Box" where smart money built positions.




The Shakeout (2020): A final test at ₹1.7 on all-time low volume—the ultimate signal that supply was exhausted.

The Markup Phase (Current): We are seeing perfect harmony. When price surges, volume surges. We saw a "Jump across the Creek" in 2023-24 with monthly volumes hitting 6.5 Billion units.

3. Price Targets & Outlook
We are currently in a re-accumulation phase (finding support between ₹40 and ₹53). Based on the 10-year base "cause," here are the projections:

Target 1 (Achieved): ₹86 (Recently tested).

Long-Term Target: ₹185 – ₹190.

The Bottom Line: This isn't a straight line up. Expect small distribution phases and volatility, but the primary uptrend remains 100% intact.

Discussion:
I’d love to hear your take. Are you holding Suzlon for the long haul, or playing the swing? Also, drop a comment with any other tickers you want me to break down next using the Wyckoff framework!

Happy New Year 2026 & Happy Investing! 🥂

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence.

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

BABA: Why your opinion doesn’t matter (unless it aligns with the "Big Boys")
I saw a great quote recently: "We all got opinions, but do they align with the big boys and who’s in charge of what it is we have an opinion on?"

As retail traders, we spend all day arguing about fundamentals, news, and earnings. But at the end of the day, we don't move the price—Smart Money does. If you aren't trading on the side of the institutions, you’re just exit liquidity for the "Big Boys."

I just finished a deep-dive case study on Alibaba ($BABA) using the Wyckoff Method to see what the people "in charge" are actually doing. Here is what the tape is telling us:

1. The "Cause" is Massive: BABA has been in an accumulation range for nearly 4 years. In Wyckoff terms, the "Cause" (accumulation) is directly proportional to the "Effect" (the markup). A base this large usually leads to a massive trend.

2. Supply is Exhausted: During the recent tests, we saw volume drop from 500M to 50M. That is a clear sign that the "Strong Hands" have absorbed the floating supply. There simply aren't many sellers left.

3. The Targets: Based on the P&F (Point and Figure) counts from this base, the technical targets are sitting at $238 - $264, with a long-term potential of $400+.

Bottom line: Stop trading your "opinion" on the news and start following the Effort vs. Result in the price action. The big boys are leaving footprints—you just have to know how to read them.

I've mapped out the Phases (A through E) in my latest analysis. https://youtu.be/4DJMOfNwfig?si=X5Bg1...

love to hear from other Wyckoffians—are you seeing the same accumulation footprints, or are you still sitting on the sidelines?

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

Silver's 50-Year "Dead Money" Trap is OVER! (Target $139 🚀)

Trust the 'Cause': A 15-year accumulation doesn't end in a week. The 'Effect' is just starting, so don't get shaken out by minor volatility.

Mark the Pivot: Keep your eyes on the $47–$50 level. A successful retest here is the 'green light' for the next leg up to $95.

Manage Your Risk: As we enter this parabolic phase, volatility will spike. Stick to your profit targets at $95 and $139, and never trade more than you can afford to lose.

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

PLTR - WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION (UTAD Test )IN PROGRESS in distribution 2 based on earlier analysis - $PLTR$: The "Moonshot" or the Ultimate Distribution Trap? Why WYCKOFF Analysis Flags a UTAD in Progress.


Everyone is telling you Palantir ($PLTR$) is the next moonshot, but the technical data is telling a completely different story. While analysts are raising price targets, my Wyckoff (WYCKOFF) analysis has just flagged a major Distribution Phase that most retail investors are completely missing.



The Wyckoff Breakdown: UTAD in Progress?

In Wyckoff Theory, the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) is the ultimate "Bull Trap." It’s a sharp move to new highs designed to lure in retail FOMO so institutions can offload their final shares. Here is what the "Lab" is seeing on the PLTR chart:

The Cause is Exhausted: Based on the 2022–2024 accumulation "Cause," I computed a campaign target of $196–$212. We recently hit $207, the exact heart of that range. The "Effect" has been fully realized.


Price-Volume Divergence: Throughout 2025, the price made higher highs, but the volume began showing exhaustion (the Pink Arrow). This is a massive red flag—the uptrend is no longer being supported by "Smart Money" but is being driven by retail buyers.



Institutional Footprints: We saw massive volume spikes at the $190 and $207 levels. In Wyckoff logic, these are "selling into strength." Institutions are using the good news and high analyst estimates to find the liquidity they need to exit.

The Current Phase: Distribution 2 Palantir is currently trapped in a red-shadowed distribution box. The price is becoming rangebound, and the "Strong Hands" are systematically distributing to "Weak Hands."

My Strategic Outlook:

Long-Term (5–10 years): If you’re a true believer, you might weather the coming stagnation.

Short-Term/Traders: This is a Major Red Flag. The technicals suggest the "Cause" is spent. We are likely entering a Markdown phase where the price could move with a high spread to the downside.

Don't get caught being the "liquidity" for the Big Boys.

I’ve posted a full frame-by-frame deep dive into the PLTR market cycle (2020–Present) on my channel. We break down the exact volume signals that confirmed this distribution.




Drop a comment with the word "WYCKOFF" if you're watching this divergence, or let me know your thoughts on the $200 level below!

1 week ago | [YT] | 0

befinfree - TheWyckoffLab

Baidu (BIDU) Case Study: Using the Wyckoff Method to Predict the Next Major Trend

I’ve had several requests to look into Baidu recently, and after diving into the charts, the structural shifts are too significant to ignore. If you’ve been holding BIDU since 2011, you know the pain—it’s been a directionless "trap" for nearly 15 years. But looking at the leading indicators (Price and Volume), that is finally changing.

The Context: The 20-Year Weekly View Since 2011, BIDU has been stuck. Aside from the post-COVID push to $354 in 2021 (which was met with massive distribution), the stock has done nothing. However, the last 3 years have painted a very different picture.



The Smart Money Footprint (2022–2025) We are currently exiting a massive Accumulation Phase. Here is the evidence:

Preliminary Support (PS): In early 2022, we saw volume spike to 40-60M. This was the first entry of institutional "Strong Hands" stopping the downtrend.

The Test: In April/May of 2025, the stock tested a low of $74.71. Volume was less than 20M—this is a massive signal that supply has been exhausted.

Jump Across the Creek: In September 2025, we saw the stock break resistance with high volume (Harmony), pushing from $90 to $132 in just 4 weeks.

Current Setup: The LPS (Last Point of Support) The stock is currently testing the LPS at $110. It is making higher highs, and the path of least resistance is now officially upward.



The Price Target: $275 – $290 Using the Wyckoff Law of Cause and Effect, the "Cause" built since late 2022 gives us enough momentum for a major "Effect."

Immediate Hurdle: Needs to break the $156–$160 resistance.

2026 Target: $275 to $290. This aligns perfectly with the long-term resistance seen on the 20-year chart.

Summary of the Methodology: For those unfamiliar, this analysis uses the Wyckoff Method (established by Richard Wyckoff). Unlike RSI or Moving Averages, which are lagging, we focus on:

Supply vs. Demand (The market engine)

Cause vs. Effect (The momentum builder)

Effort vs. Result (The volume/price harmony)





What are your thoughts on BIDU? Are you seeing the same accumulation, or do you think the $160 resistance holds? Let's discuss below.



Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Happy New Year 2026 and happy investing!

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1 week ago | [YT] | 0