Marko Yamashita Ch.

For those of you receiving the 500 Internal Service Error message (which has been appearing across different websites using Cloudflare like X and other sites) they are apparently trying to resolve the issue: www.cloudflarestatus.com/

1 hour ago (edited) | [YT] | 2

Marko Yamashita Ch.

Part 1 of our deep dive into Cover Corporation's Q2 report will be posted later today/tomorrow. There's still some editing I haven't finished yet that I can't get to until later today. I'll be doing things slightly different than before just to try something different but it won't be drastically different.

2 hours ago | [YT] | 1

Marko Yamashita Ch.

COVER CORPORATION - Update on Measures Taken to Combat Infringements of Rights Against COVER Corp. and Affiliated Talents

Thank you very much for continually supporting COVER Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "COVER Corp."), hololive production, and especially our talents.

An individual (hereinafter referred to as the “perpetrator”), who committed acts of rights infringement, including defamation and slander, against the company and its affiliated talents has been identified and a settlement reached.

The perpetrator infringed on the reputation rights of COVER Corp.-affiliated talents and copyright/business rights of the company by falsifying images that raised serious concern for the lives and safety of the talents, and spreading untrue rumors about affiliated talents on social media. These actions were also recognized by the courts to be infringements of rights, which led to the identification of the individual.

After the individual was identified, a settlement was reached upon negotiations that included the following.

That the individual is incredibly remorseful and deeply apologizes for posting online in a manner that defamed and was slanderous towards COVER Corp. talents

That the individual must pay any damages that were incurred as a result of their actions.

That the individual pledges that one will not act in a manner, including defamation/slander, that infringes upon the rights of COVER Corp. and its affiliated talents.

That the individual will pay a penalty if found to be in breach of this settlement. Currently, there are a number of ongoing civil and criminal legal proceedings with regards to infringement of rights cases, including defamation/slander targeted at COVER Corp. and its affiliated talents.

We will continue to care for our talents, address defamation and other rights infringements, and provide updates on the result of pursuit of liability cases to ensure that all talents affiliated with hololive production and fans alike can engage in activities and enjoy content respectively in a safe and secure environment.

We sincerely ask for your continued understanding and cooperation.


Original posting: cover-corp.com/en/news/detail/c2025111701

11 hours ago (edited) | [YT] | 4

Marko Yamashita Ch.

Goodbye 1600. We hardly knew you but the time together was priceless. We wish you well on your future endeavors. (This is impressive...ly.... wow....)

11 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Marko Yamashita Ch.

I had been working on a video making a case that Cover would dip to 1400 yen when they released their Q3 data. But I scrapped the idea as being absurd. Now, I'm starting to think it wasn't such a crazy narrative as I thought it was.

15 hours ago | [YT] | 5

Marko Yamashita Ch.

One of the international trading dashboards locked in closing the following prices for Cover and AnyColor. So, as of closing yesterday, when traded in USD, AnyColor is trading 4x the sticker price of Hololive. Assuming they publish an earnings call transcript, I'd really like to see detailed explanations for these "upfront costs" they keep citing and get a clear projected time frame of these "upfront costs" finish having an impact on their revenue. Similarly, a few answers of clarity regarding HoloEarth and the future of that project would go along way to satiate my growing pessimism. Because this right here, crushes any spun gossip rumor former ex-nijiEN members and drama tubers say. Even with the NIKKEI and TOPIX struggling recently, AnyColor has the chance to finish well over +130% higher in 2025 and could make a run at being worth 5x more than Cover if they stick their Q2 report landing.

17 hours ago | [YT] | 4

Marko Yamashita Ch.

Japan's market opens with a very mixed picture. Forecasts for their economy pinned tariff impacts to be far worse than the results are reflecting their economy did shrink for the first time in 6 quarters. Nikkei Asia reports;

"Japanese listed companies saw April-September net profits rise 7% on the year to a record high despite the headwinds of U.S. tariffs, benefiting from strong artificial-intelligence investment and robust demand at home."

(looks over at Cover Corporation Net Profit falling -1.16% during that time frame)

asia.nikkei.com/business/business-trends/corporate…


Moving on! 😉

Talk of raising interest rates to strengthen the Yen has been somewhat quelled for the moment. There's no immediate decision on another cut by the US which automatically does what a rate increase would do for the Yen, so everyone is essentially waiting for the US Fed to resume reporting activities.

Speculation Zone!

Cover staying pat with their yearly guidance isn't anything new. They've only revised it when the numbers go higher. Given that the original plans for this year were to "resume" net revenue profits at 13.5% is extremely rosy. Their best chance at positive news is the quarter currently in play (Q3) They must at minimum make 14.29b with a 1.9b Net Profit (13.3% profit margin) to make their forecast and keep pace with the yearly forecast. Falling short isn't the end of the world; however, it depends on how short and whether or not the "changes" they're making can be quantified. Cover is notorious with burying things behind "PR speak" in words and on paper. Whereas their competitor chronicled the changes and provided detailed examples in graphs, charts and reports, Cover... well... people are still using talking points to explain away why their stock is floundering at 1600 while AnyColor is over 6000.

One saving grace they might have up their sleeve are limited collaborations which provide them with one time injections of revenue outside the normal cash flow which could alleviate the revenue pressure. Securing these sponsorships or collaborations, while short term, provide revenue flow that inflate the purse strings and bide time for other projects to come into alignment.

While short selling still seems to be in firm control of the company's stock, this massive dip does provide a compelling opportunity. Suppose they turn everything around by the end of their fiscal year (March 31, 2026). Their stock is at an all time low (1400-1600) and they lay out a firm plan moving forward with a proper roadmap. Assuming "development" of these projects in their genesis phase could provide the perfect entry point for the long term investor. It's far from a slam dunk in my eyes. I'm not quite sure how much I'd wager on it right now. But given their current valuation, I do see them as in their "fair value" and sliding fast into "bargain buy" territory.

1 day ago (edited) | [YT] | 4

Marko Yamashita Ch.

While Yagoo vindicated this obscure VTuber's reasoning and assessments of Cover over the past 2 years, my personal feelings on Cover are as follows: Q3 will likely be a miss. Q3 runs from October through December 31. Cover waited until mid November to finally do something about merch shipping to the US. Merch sales will likely still fall short unless there's a backlog still waiting to be completed so they can add it to the books.

Q4's current forecast calls for at least 17.49b yen of total revenue and 39.93 EPS. Assuming they reach the revenue target, they'd need a NET revenue margin of 15.15%
to meet the forecast. That's a tall order for a company that claims many projects in development but provides few details about their valuation and profitability...

2 days ago (edited) | [YT] | 5

Marko Yamashita Ch.

Today's fun fact: The red boxes show the cost per quarter for the events and concerts Hololive did over the past 6 quarters. The numbers in yellow is the percentage of profit reported after subtracting "event expenses." Remember, they're supposedly 2 Senior Vice Presidents overseeing production and talent support but the cyclical revenue numbers are running within a ~5% profit range after expenses. My guess is the larger in scale the concerts are, the less profitable they become; whereas small to medium concerts like AnyColor transitioned to lead to the higher returns like how Cover performed in Q1 of FY2025 and Q1 of FY2026.

3 days ago | [YT] | 10

Marko Yamashita Ch.

Just for perspective of how far ‪@hololive‬ and ‪@anycolor_inc‬ have diverged in share price: 1 year ago both company's stock were worth approximately 2247 yen a share when Cover's stock overtook AnyColor. Both companies were neck and neck until Cover's disastrous Q3 report. Now AnyColor is worth 3.89x the amount Cover's worth. The last time Cover's price hit 1675 was August 2024 after Japan increased interest rates and triggered the country's worth market crash since the 1980s.

4 days ago | [YT] | 5