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4 months ago | [YT] | 1
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OASIS KSJ HOLDINGS
*Gold Market 黃金市場更新 April/13/2024
It seems like gold may have hit its recent peak at $2448 last night, following a remarkable $400 surge since the end of February over a span of 1.5 months. It might be advisable for clients to consider taking profits if there's any rebound from this level.
1 year ago (edited) | [YT] | 6
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OASIS KSJ HOLDINGS
*Gold Market 黃金市場更新 April/08/2024 📝
Gold has broken out of the normal inverse relationship with USD and US treasury yield and the stock market direction. Which in past months we saw higher USD, TSY yield and S&P index together with new record high gold price. I think though nominal yield went up, real yield stay low as data showing a stronger than expected US economy and inflationary pressure, Jerome Powell continues to stay dovish in his tone. Plus the escalation of tension in middle east between Israel and Iran, flight to safe haven gold and large commodities like oil to hedge inflation and geo political risks continues. We also saw Central Banks like PBOC, kept on buying gold as a safer stored of value. I see high oil and gold trading range of 80-95 vs previous 70-85 and strong support higher at 2180 vs previous 1980.
黃金最近呈現與美元、美國國債收益率以及股市方向通常相反的行為。過去幾個月,我們見證了美元、國債收益率和標普指數同時攀升,與此同時,黃金價格創下了歷史新高。
這種分歧背後的原因很多。雖然名義收益率有所上升,但由於美國經濟表現強勁且通脹壓力上升,實際收益率仍然保持較低水平。與此同時,美聯儲主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)的鴿派言論也為實際收益率的下行提供了支持。
此外,中東以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢升級,以及全球地緣政治風險的上升,促使投資者紛紛尋求黃金等避險資產的保護。許多中央銀行,包括中國人民銀行在內,也積極增持黃金,作為其貨幣儲備的一部分。
展望未來,我們預計原油的交易價格將在80至95美元之間波動,較之前的70至85美元有所增加。黃金我們預期強勁的支撐位將在2180美元,高於之前的1980美元水平。這些動態反映了地緣政治緊張局勢、貨幣政策和經濟基本面之間複雜的相互作用,影響著這些資產的表現。,因此,投資者應該保持警惕,並在投資組合中考慮加入這些避險資產,以應對不確定性增加的環境。
1 year ago | [YT] | 7
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