Uk Storm Chaser Liam
I am a storm chasers from Devon, UK and sometimes rarely I go out of county to chase round the midlands and other area in the UK. It has always been a dream of mine to move to the USA and chases there. I have always had an obsession with weather and natural disasters both the sceptical that they create but also how to prevent peoples life's from being destroyed and/or ruined by these events of nature!
Goal: is to capture every weather event that happens near me in the UK!
Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MesoCast has upgraded the risk level to V-HIGH (Very High), which is the highest and rarest category that an outlook can receive.
Along with this upgrade, a Level 3 Severe Hatched Area has been issued, including a 5% tornado risk, 15% wind risk, 30% hail risk, and 30% flood risk.
Under this risk, a few strong to violent thunderstorms could develop into supercells, which are large rotating storms capable of producing severe weather. With these storms, isolated tornadoes are possible, along with a significant hail threat. Hailstones are estimated to range between 3–6 cm (1.2–2.4 inches) in diameter.
As heavy rainfall drags air downward, a moderate wind threat is also expected, with wind gusts exceeding 55 mph likely within the strongest storms. In addition, frequent to destructive lightning is expected.
A substantial flash flood risk has also been highlighted due to extreme rainfall rates of 2 inches (50 mm) or more per hour. Combined with large hail and intense downpours, significant amounts of water could accumulate in a short period of time, leading to rapid flooding.
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
3 days ago | [YT] | 2
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
THE ESSL OUTLOOK IS OUT for both the 25th and 26th June High Risks (MesoCast).
For 25 June, a huge area of significant hail potential has been highlighted. The ESSL indicates a 60–80% chance of seeing hail 2 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius of any given point in the red-to-maroon shaded area. In addition, another area shows a 20% chance of seeing hail 5 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius.
Storms on the 25th are expected to begin developing between 1 PM and 7 PM, with peak storm intensity currently estimated between 7 PM on the 25th and 1 AM on the 26th.
However, for the 26 June High Risk, the outlook suggests a slightly weaker event, though it remains a serious concern. A 15–40% chance of hail 2 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius is indicated in the blue-shaded area, while the hatched area shows a 5% chance of hail 5 cm or larger.
This remains a significant severe weather threat. Just because the 26th's risk is not as strong as the 25th's does not mean that strong or potentially life-threatening storms cannot occur. Large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes may still be possible.
That's all for now. I wish everyone the very best with the storms tomorrow and the day after.
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
4 days ago (edited) | [YT] | 0
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
A HUGE TWO-DAY HIGH RISK has been issued by MesoCast, as Thursday's High Risk on 25 June is expected to carry over into Friday, 26 June.
This is a major event because not only is it the first-ever MesoCast High Risk since forecasting began on 25 March 2026, but it is also a two-day High Risk, which is incredibly rare.
For Friday's High Risk, you can expect conditions similar to Thursday's outbreak, including large hail (1–5 cm), damaging winds, flash flooding, and the potential for a few short-lived, isolated tornadoes. In addition, temperatures are expected to be extremely hot, ranging from 30–38°C.
At this time, it is difficult to say exactly when Friday's severe weather will begin, as a detailed discussion for Friday has not yet been issued. Thursday's outbreak is currently expected to develop between 2 PM and 9 PM.
The ESSL 24-hour outlook should be released soon, provided their servers are up and running. Once the outlook is available, we should have a much clearer picture of the expected impacts and timing.
That's all for now. Love you all, and stay safe!
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
4 days ago | [YT] | 0
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MesoCast has issued a High Risk for the first time ever, as a large severe weather outbreak is expected on 25 June 2026 during the early evening through to the early morning hours.
The High Risk area covers portions of Ireland and Scotland, along with a severe hail zone where hailstones up to 6 cm in diameter are possible, although this is not considered very likely. Hail sizes of 1–5 cm are expected to be more common.
In addition, there is a significant risk of flash flooding, damaging winds, and very frequent lightning. There is also the potential for a few quick, short-lived tornadoes. These storms are expected to be strong and could become life-threatening in some areas.
MesoCast is also considering adding a second High Risk polygon, meaning a rare double High Risk scenario could be issued.
I have not been able to have access to the 3 or even 24hr ESSL outlook as it seems there servers are down we will see later though however I do have access to the outdated ones!!
Handry's HOCCO outlook is signalling 95%< lightning risk per 25 mile radius of the cost of Scotland and Ireland and I feel this event should be taken seriously as on the 22ed multiple houses were set on fire due to the lightning. This is all I have for now stay safe yall!!
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
HANDRY: handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website
AS I WAS MAKING THIS POST HANDRY HAS UPDRADED THERE RISK FROM A MDT(moderate) TO A HIGH AS SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND THIS EVENT IS BECOMING MORE VIVID!!
4 days ago | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
A large and potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected to develop on Thursday, 25 June 2026, across Northern Ireland and northern-Western Scotland. The Handry Outlook has issued two severe hatched areas, indicating the potential for severe or even damaging thunderstorms.
Current model guidance suggests severe storms may develop from the early evening through to early morning on Tuesday. Potential hazards include 2–5 cm diameter hail, an enhanced tornado risk, flash flooding, and damaging winds.
As this is still a Day 3 outlook, details are likely to change as confidence increases and newer model runs become available. When the 24-hour ESSL outlook for 25 June is released, I will be able to provide more detailed information.
At present, both Handry and Mesocast have issued Moderate Risks for 25 June. Additionally, Handry's automated HOCCO outlook is indicating lightning probabilities of around 85–90% within a 25-mile radius within some select areas.
MESOCAST: mesocast.uk/
HANDRY: handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
Could this be the day the first MesoCast High risk is issued?!? 🫣🫣
5 days ago (edited) | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
Two moderate risks have been issued for Day 3 (25 June) by MesoCast (mesocast.uk/) due to the potential for severe weather across England, Scotland, and parts of Ireland. No discussion has been released yet, and no severe hatched area has been outlined. Soon, I will have access to the 24hr-ESSL (stormforecast.eu/) outlook, which will provide details on hail and lightning potential. For now, I only have access to the 3-hour outlook by the ESSL, so there is not much more information available at this stage.
5 days ago | [YT] | 3
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
Handry (handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website) has issued a MODERATE risk for today the 22ed June 2026 for severe thunderstorms confidence is still low as MesoCast (mesocast.uk/interactive-map/?d=1) has downgraded there MDT risk to a SLGT
6 days ago | [YT] | 0
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MeosCast has issued a MODERATE (conditional) risk for today, for the 22ed June 2026. Along with this risk there is a hatched area of Severe Weather, with wind in exceeding 55mph (consistent). The certainty is not 100% garneted but if peak daylight heating, is enough to brake the warmer air above the ground (CAP) then explosive and severe weather is likely some of the threats from MesoCast. winds in excess of 55MPH, large to damaging hail, very frequent lightning and possible tornados are likely. If TORRO decides to issue any tornado watches or severe thunder storm warning, I will post those. This day has CAPE values in the 1000-3000+ J/kg which is the amount of potential energy storms could have. For now I'm going to wait for MesoCast to update the discussion details and for Handry to send out there risk this is all for now.
6 days ago | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
⚠️BIG NEWS!⚠️ The ESSL has warned of a huge hail risk across southern to both east and western England throughout tomorrow, the 22ed of June 2026. Potential times of storms are from 6am-6am Tuesday the next day, meaning there could be a possibility of a nocturnal event. When and if theses storms fire in this area the possibility of strong supercells with large hail of 2cm or bigger (15-40%) is likely, within 25 miles of any given point in the blues and greens. They have also hatched a point of 5cm or bigger (5-10%) within the dotted and solid lines of white. With theses storms you can expect, small to large scale flooding, large hail (damaging hail), strong straight line winds (40-55mph) and possible tornados this is not a something you want to get caught in please be mindful on the 22ed as both extreme temps (30C+) and large CAPE values above 1500-2000J/kg. However confidence is low with where, when and how strong these storms will be. I want to say, not all what is mentioned might not all 100% happen, I'm just saying there is a chance and if it dose happen this is what to expect. When MesoCast and Handry upload there outlooks I will post what they expect and the risk is that may follow. This is it for now, don't panic just stay aware!!
1 week ago | [YT] | 2
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
Supercell percentage continues to increase over the last couple day. The ESSL and MesoCast has highlighted the potential for large hail with a possible diameter of 2-5cm, as well as possible tornados for England on Monday 22ed of June 2026. This event looks powerful with temps reaching into the 30C+ and Cape in the 1000-2000J/kg and some even models showing 3000J/kg or over (1000J/kg is needed for explosive thunderstorms and tornados). However a disturbance in the lower-mid atmosphere is not quite seen, so low certainty whether or not this will happen is on the table. Soon I will be able to have access to the ESSL 24hr-forcast for the 22ed right now I have the 3hr which is seen below, so as soon as I get that I will make another post. This is all for now.
1 week ago | [YT] | 4
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