vinod srinivasan

Good Sunday morning, Tribe ☕️

Writing this from Chennai airport at 4 AM. Heading to Bangalore. There is an Oasis song stuck in my head, the one about standing at the station in the rain while everyone tells you the brighter day is coming. Some might say we will find a brighter day. Noel Gallagher was not really writing about optimism. He was writing about the gap between what people tell you and where you actually are.

That song fits this market better than most analyst notes I read this week.

Bloomberg surveyed 32 fund managers. Eighty percent picked equities to outperform. About half picked US tech and AI as the top bet. The brighter day, apparently, is already here. Meanwhile four stocks have carried more than half of the S&P 500's gains this year. The semiconductor index trades at 25 times forward earnings against a decade average of 19. First quarter earnings grew 27 percent and the bar for the rest of the year just got raised to a place where any miss gets punished.

Everyone is telling you sunshine follows thunder. Nobody is asking whether you made preparation.

The same survey asked what risk markets are most underpricing. The answer was not yields, not the Fed, not Hormuz. It was earnings disappointment. The whole thesis rests on profits continuing to surprise upward. When the entire room is leaning the same way, the floor does not need to break for things to get uncomfortable. It just needs to tilt.

For us in India, one thing worth holding clearly. The US AI rally and Indian IT are not the same trade. The hyperscalers are spending. Indian IT services are on the receiving end of that spending being redirected. Same headline, opposite direction. Do not let the noise from New York set your conviction on Bengaluru.

None of this is a call to sell. It is a call to remember that the time to make preparation is before you are standing in the rain, not after. Tiffin Coffee discipline matters most when everyone around you is feeling brave. Small, regular, calm. The brighter day, if it comes, will reward the patient. If it does not come on schedule, the patient are the only ones who do not get hurt.

Have a calm Sunday. I will think of all of you somewhere over the Deccan.

— Vinod

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 15

vinod srinivasan

2100 days of learning.
₹35 lakhs invested.
₹58 lakhs total value.

Imagine if I had invested with the same daily consistency as I learned.

Consistency compounds.
In language. In markets. In life.

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3 months ago | [YT] | 68

vinod srinivasan

Once you eliminate the impossible,
whatever remains,
no matter how improbable,
must be the truth.

Sherlock Homes

3 months ago | [YT] | 18

vinod srinivasan

The FTSE 100 just beat the S&P 500 in 2025. That almost never happens.
The last time it did was 2009.

This isn’t an AI or tech story. It’s a cash flow, dividends, inflation, and macro regime story. And there are some uncomfortable blind spots most headlines are skipping.

I’ve broken down what’s real, what’s misleading, and why this matters for global investors on my WhatsApp channel.

If you enjoy digging beneath the surface instead of chasing narratives, you’ll like this.

Read it here:

whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vb443VOI7Be7mpqWcJ31/1055

5 months ago | [YT] | 14

vinod srinivasan

Howard Marks wrote recently about how bubbles never die; they just change shape. Every generation rediscovers greed, calls it innovation, and mistakes narrative for analysis. The tech may change railroads, dot com, crypto, now AI but the psychology doesn’t.

He says AI might truly be revolutionary, but enthusiasm turns to mania when valuations outrun earnings. His advice: don’t go all in, don’t stay all out. Stay selective and prudent.

I agree but Bubbles never vanish because they’re not economic events at their root they’re psychological cycles. Every generation rediscovers greed, dresses it in new technology, and mistakes narrative for analysis. The railroad, radio, dotcom, crypto, and now AI each started with genuine innovation, then got hijacked by human fantasy. Capital doesn’t just fund progress; it amplifies belief. And belief, untethered from earnings, becomes mania.

Where I’d diverge slightly is on moderation. A “moderate position” isn’t easy to define when market concentration reaches the extremes we’re seeing now where five companies hold up an entire index. Value investors are by design suspicious of consensus, and right now consensus is AI. The correct posture isn’t half in, half out it’s selective participation: own the shovel-makers, not the gold rush dreamers.

I’d stay long on companies monetizing AI infrastructure with durable moats (semiconductors, power, enterprise software) and avoid those whose value depends purely on “what AI might do someday.” In other words: invest where cash flows are visible and optionality is free, not priced in.

As Tony Benn once said: be enthusiastic about progress but allergic to euphoria.

Do you agree?

5 months ago | [YT] | 23

vinod srinivasan

What is meant by quality stocks and why they matter?

In plain terms: serious money has chased hype, leaving strong, stable businesses neglected a setup that historically leads to strong mean reversion.

That’s very important!

So Why It Matters for Indian Investors?!?

India, too, is seeing its own mini-version of this story. Quality Indian companies with predictable earnings, solid cash flows, and conservative leverage have lagged speculative names in sectors.

That divergence creates a sweet spot: many undervalued high-quality Indian companies are now trading below their long-term price to earnings (P/E) and price to cash-flow (P/CF) norms, despite improving fundamentals.

Globally, the same is true for large names like Lockheed Martin, CVS Health, Tesco, AstraZeneca, and Lenovo

(this is not a recommendation here 😁🫶🏼🫵🏼)

all trading at discounts. In India, you might think of equivalents such as businesses that may look “boring” but have the same compounding DNA.

You might ask What Defines the “Sweet Spot” Portfolio?

The quality focuses on:
• High ROE and consistent earnings growth.
• Low debt and stable margins.
• Strong free cash flow yield and reasonable forward P/E.
• Elimination of small, illiquid, or red flag companies (e.g. excessive stock options).

After applying the value filter, shortlist global stocks US, UK, Hong Kong listed China, Brazil, and India that trade at roughly a 30% discount to the market, with an average ROE of around 19% versus 11% for the broad market.

(Again! Not recommendation but information 😁🫶🏼🫵🏼)

For Indian investors, apply this same logic to identify domestic or global compounders that are temporarily underpriced, and build a diversified basket around them.

The big point being!

you don’t need to predict when the AI bubble bursts or whether markets crash. Quality businesses will keep compounding, and when markets eventually rotate out of hype, they tend to outperform sharply.

Be patient !! Quality underperformance usually precedes long phases of strong compounding.

Anyway this is the gist of my morning rambles! I will post a longer version on LinkedIn I guess 😂

Have a good one!

As I prep for the value video you've all been begging for, I've jotted down some notes on how to use the tools to screen for top stocks. So, what are the 20 stocks from 20 companies that have piqued your interest? 🫶🏼🫵🏼😁

6 months ago | [YT] | 20

vinod srinivasan

Three years after ChatGPT shook up the world, OpenAI’s early lead is finally under real pressure. Google’s new Gemini 3 model has leapfrogged GPT-5 on key benchmarks, and Anthropic’s Claude is quietly building a strong enterprise base.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is facing huge compute costs, talent churn, and a risky $1.4 trillion spend plan over eight years. It’s spreading itself thin with too many products from coding tools to Sora videos while rivals are tightening focus and scaling smarter.

Google, on the other hand, has staged a massive comeback using its own TPU chips instead of Nvidia’s, pushing Gemini’s user base past 650 million, and nearing a $4 trillion market cap.

And here’s the kicker: Warren Buffett just bought $4–5 billion worth of Alphabet shares. For a man who once avoided fast-moving tech, that’s a clear vote of confidence.

Put it all together Google’s resurgence, Anthropic’s rise, OpenAI’s stretched resources and Buffett’s move suddenly makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?

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6 months ago | [YT] | 25

vinod srinivasan

Good morning, Tribe.
We’re in the final month of the year the one everyone talks about “closing strong,” “finishing with a flash,” and all that.

But for us, the long term compounders, this isn’t the finish line. It’s just one milestone in a system that keeps moving. We don’t sprint; we stride.

If you’ve stayed the course, that’s one milestone down. We’ve got nine more to go in the next leg so keep the momentum alive. The magic is in the rhythm, not the rush.

6 months ago | [YT] | 24

vinod srinivasan

🌟 Tribe, quick check-in! 🌟

We’re opening up a chance to look at bonds, Indian stocks, and US/Japanese stocks with me + my team. If this is something you’d like to consider, just fill out this form 👇

👉 forms.gle/cBf2n9pNgXh97tYG8

This will help us know who’s interested so we can plan better for the tribe. Let’s keep growing together 💪📈

8 months ago | [YT] | 10

vinod srinivasan

Big news brewing 🚨

Tata Motors is officially demerging on October 1, 2025 into two independent companies: one for commercial vehicles under Girish Wagh, and one for passenger vehicles & EVs under Shailesh Chandra. Shareholders will get a 1:1 entitlement for every Tata Motors share you hold, you’ll get one share in each entity.

On paper, it looks like value unlocking. But what are the blind spots investors need to watch out for?

I’ll cover everything in today’s video. Stay tuned! 🫶🏼🫵🏼🙏🏼

8 months ago | [YT] | 50