An Ed-tech, Global equity research firm, risk consulting firm in the making. Currently educating advanced equity research & financial modeling to students.
There are certain things which I absolutely truly focus on teaching my students in any of our Equity Research & Valuation batches!
And this is what makes us truly unique, and its that every next batch is usually way better than the previous one…
So, here are a few principles which you must keep in mind when researching, and it should answer the following:
- What is the market's current variant perception on this stock? (What does consensus think, and why might they be wrong?) - What are the 2-3 variables that will actually determine the outcome? (Not the 20 things in the model, just 2-3 that matter most) - What would have to be true for the bear case? (Steel-man it before dismissing it) - What's my edge in this particular situation? (Why do I know something the market doesn't?)
If you can't answer all four clearly, you don't have a research view, you have a summary of publicly available information
Okay, so let me teach you one of the most interesting case studies happening in real time in the Indian hospital sector!
The case is of Yatharth Hospitals & Max Healthcare
So, let’s build with first principles for hospital stocks
We value hospitals using EV/EBITDA, and the profitability metric is ROCE
So, the delta in ROCE matters!
Now, as you can see..both Max & Yatharth have seen a compression in ROCE
Max saw its ROCE go from 24% to 21% YoY, Yatharth saw it compressing from 19% to 16%
Now the reason for this ROCE compression is same for both the hospital stock: It’s due to M&A
As both max & Yatharth have their presence in T1 critics (Max: 72% beds in Metro, Yatharth: 80% beds in Metro)
Yet, Yatharth is in an upward price trajectory and max has seen its share price deplete over the last few months and especially in the last 2 days!
So, the question comes why? Why 2 hospitals with exactly the same expansion plans are trading and behaving differently!
Now, as a Managing Partner, I understand this scenario in following ways
- Max is seeing its topline growth slowing down (hardly 10%), and Yatharth is growing at much faster pace, and management is guiding for more than 26% in FY27 too! - Max is further ahead in corporate life cycle stage as compared to Yatharth - Yatharths base is smaller too, as compared to max - Plus, even at this high capex phase, Yatharth is seeing an upward increase in its occupancy rates, whereas Max has seen a peak out in those - Even on operational metric perspective, Yatharth is ever growing!
So, these are the few things which creates real differentiation in Valuations in a particular sector!
Hope it added some value!
And you can enrol in our Advanced ER batch, where I have taught 25+ case studies like this!
In this video we are going to learn how to make a jump from being an accountant (as a CA, ACCA, CPA) to dominating the world of equity research!
We will learn the following in this video:
- Why Equity Research? - Why Accounting job has a ceiling? - How to transition from accounting to ER - Accounting vs Equity Research - CA vs CFA vs ACCA vs CPA - 6 Months finance roadmap
Watch the full video through the link in the comments👇🏻
Something really interesting is happening in the hospital space in India, especially over the last 3-4 years
Almost every hospital is now growing via Brownfield, Acquisitions, and Built to Suit models..and only a little bit of capex is happening on Greenfield front!
This is due to the fact that land parcel availability in India is rare, and a lot of on ground clearances are tough to get, and this increases the gestation, thereby increasing the breakeven time, as well as it dents the ROCE for the consolidated entity!
Here’s an example of Aster DM merging with QCIL, and here’s how it creates a new mega entity👇🏻
Currently, Aster has 5,449 bed capacity, spanned across Kerala, Karnataka & Maharashtra, AP & Telangana
Whereas, QCIL has 5,174 bed capacity, now after the merger of both the entities, the combined new entity will have a giagantic capacity of 10,623 beds, which they are guiding to expand it to 15,068 beds by FY30 & beyond!
This really goes on to show how quickly a hospital chain can expand without taking a dent on their ROCE when they find a suitable target to acquire or merge with!
And they’re not backing down on Brownfield & Greenfield either
They are expanding their bed capacity by 1,764 through Greenfield capex, and 964 beds by Brownfield expansion!
So, this sector is indeed one to take a note of going forward!
Global Consilient Research
I’ve completely stopped publishing stock specific research reports from GCR Brand now!
But if you still want to see the kind of research I do…
I’d highly recommend you to follow our research articles on companies on X (twitter)
Get the links in the comment section 👇🏻
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 14
View 2 replies
Global Consilient Research
Today marks the 3 years ever since I started GCR
Thank you for being a part of our community!😇
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 23
View 4 replies
Global Consilient Research
There are certain things which I absolutely truly focus on teaching my students in any of our Equity Research & Valuation batches!
And this is what makes us truly unique, and its that every next batch is usually way better than the previous one…
So, here are a few principles which you must keep in mind when researching, and it should answer the following:
- What is the market's current variant perception on this stock? (What does consensus think, and why might they be wrong?)
- What are the 2-3 variables that will actually determine the outcome? (Not the 20 things in the model, just 2-3 that matter most)
- What would have to be true for the bear case? (Steel-man it before dismissing it)
- What's my edge in this particular situation? (Why do I know something the market doesn't?)
If you can't answer all four clearly, you don't have a research view, you have a summary of publicly available information
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 19
View 2 replies
Global Consilient Research
If you’re unable to use any advanced functions or new formula/features in your excel 365
Then this might be due to the channel you are on!
Mainly there are 2 channels in any excel version
One is beta channel (you get updates before everyone else, a typical beta version, but is more prone to errors and bugs)
Second one is current channel (features which are bug free and are with everyone)
So make sure you see which channel you’re on, to understand why some functions might not be working!
How to check the channel which you’re on?
Simply click on help on top menu bar in excel
Click check for updates
The Microsoft auto update feature will open
Click on update channel, and select the channel you want to switch to!
Hope it helps!
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 13
View 0 replies
Global Consilient Research
Officially on smallcase today! :)
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 23
View 4 replies
Global Consilient Research
🚨MEGA FLASH SALE!🚨
As the May month comes to an end, I’m offering a flat 10% discount on our Recorded Lectures of Advanced Equity Research Program!
But the no of units at this price is only available for the next 15 students!
This is the best yet most underrated program in the market right now!
4 weeks ago | [YT] | 14
View 5 replies
Global Consilient Research
Okay, so let me teach you one of the most interesting case studies happening in real time in the Indian hospital sector!
The case is of Yatharth Hospitals & Max Healthcare
So, let’s build with first principles for hospital stocks
We value hospitals using EV/EBITDA, and the profitability metric is ROCE
So, the delta in ROCE matters!
Now, as you can see..both Max & Yatharth have seen a compression in ROCE
Max saw its ROCE go from 24% to 21% YoY, Yatharth saw it compressing from 19% to 16%
Now the reason for this ROCE compression is same for both the hospital stock: It’s due to M&A
As both max & Yatharth have their presence in T1 critics (Max: 72% beds in Metro, Yatharth: 80% beds in Metro)
Yet, Yatharth is in an upward price trajectory and max has seen its share price deplete over the last few months and especially in the last 2 days!
So, the question comes why? Why 2 hospitals with exactly the same expansion plans are trading and behaving differently!
Now, as a Managing Partner, I understand this scenario in following ways
- Max is seeing its topline growth slowing down (hardly 10%), and Yatharth is growing at much faster pace, and management is guiding for more than 26% in FY27 too!
- Max is further ahead in corporate life cycle stage as compared to Yatharth
- Yatharths base is smaller too, as compared to max
- Plus, even at this high capex phase, Yatharth is seeing an upward increase in its occupancy rates, whereas Max has seen a peak out in those
- Even on operational metric perspective, Yatharth is ever growing!
So, these are the few things which creates real differentiation in Valuations in a particular sector!
Hope it added some value!
And you can enrol in our Advanced ER batch, where I have taught 25+ case studies like this!
Link in the comments 👇🏻
4 weeks ago | [YT] | 18
View 1 reply
Global Consilient Research
In this video we are going to learn how to make a jump from being an accountant (as a CA, ACCA, CPA) to dominating the world of equity research!
We will learn the following in this video:
- Why Equity Research?
- Why Accounting job has a ceiling?
- How to transition from accounting to ER
- Accounting vs Equity Research
- CA vs CFA vs ACCA vs CPA
- 6 Months finance roadmap
Watch the full video through the link in the comments👇🏻
1 month ago | [YT] | 38
View 2 replies
Global Consilient Research
A detailed comparison of CFA qualification with major Accounting ones!
Detailed video coming tomorrow!
Join our group on WhatsApp via link in the comments to stay updated on our courses & webinars
1 month ago | [YT] | 51
View 1 reply
Global Consilient Research
Something really interesting is happening in the hospital space in India, especially over the last 3-4 years
Almost every hospital is now growing via Brownfield, Acquisitions, and Built to Suit models..and only a little bit of capex is happening on Greenfield front!
This is due to the fact that land parcel availability in India is rare, and a lot of on ground clearances are tough to get, and this increases the gestation, thereby increasing the breakeven time, as well as it dents the ROCE for the consolidated entity!
Here’s an example of Aster DM merging with QCIL, and here’s how it creates a new mega entity👇🏻
Currently, Aster has 5,449 bed capacity, spanned across Kerala, Karnataka & Maharashtra, AP & Telangana
Whereas, QCIL has 5,174 bed capacity, now after the merger of both the entities, the combined new entity will have a giagantic capacity of 10,623 beds, which they are guiding to expand it to 15,068 beds by FY30 & beyond!
This really goes on to show how quickly a hospital chain can expand without taking a dent on their ROCE when they find a suitable target to acquire or merge with!
And they’re not backing down on Brownfield & Greenfield either
They are expanding their bed capacity by 1,764 through Greenfield capex, and 964 beds by Brownfield expansion!
So, this sector is indeed one to take a note of going forward!
1 month ago | [YT] | 18
View 1 reply
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