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As rightly anticipated in our New Year - 2025 - “Global Market Outlook” Note to Global Investors, The Nasdaq is down by approx. -18% from its peak.
When entire World & Global Research Firms were Bullish on Trump Hope Rally, on the contrary on 1st January 2025 we shared our possible exit points in Global Markets.
Watch my in-depth dialoge with Sharan Hegde: lnkd.in/dfte2hNW
Since then,
🎯 Nasdaq is down by approx. -18%
🎯 Dow Jones is down by approx. -10%
🎯 Nifty 50 is down by approx. -15% since our Cautious Outlook in Sept-2024 & most of the Nifty-500 stocks are down by approx. -60% to -20%.
🎯 Nikkei 225 is down by approx. -15%
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Below points made us extra-cautious on Global Stock Markets:
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🎯 The Nasdaq-100 had touched 21,500 at a trailing P/E of 34. i.e., an earning yield of ~2.9% while the US 10-year GSEC yield is close to ~4.5%. This looks insane as it reflects that the Nasdaq-100 was safer than the US Government Bonds.
🎯 ~45% of Russell 2000 companies are unprofitable with $832 billion in debt which is unprecedented & looks extremely risky.
🎯 In Jan-2025, the Market Cap-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. has reached an alarming level of ~203%
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🎯 In the last 4 years, China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries & has dropped by ~40%, which is the lowest in last 16 years.
🎯 The delinquency rate on office Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) spiked to 10.4% nearing the worst levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis-2008.
🎯 Even the alarming bells are ringing in Eurozone. In 1993 European Union was trading at 35% premium to US Stock Market, which now trades at -40% (discount) to US Market.
🎯 Since our possible exit point dated 8th September 2024, FII’s have sold more than INR 3 Lakh crore worth of Indian Equities.
… Is it the right time to get into Quality Large & Mid Cap’s of Indian Markets?...
10 months ago | [YT] | 2
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