The Scruffy Trader

💥 Ready to Level Up Your Trading? 💥

Trading can be tough—but you don’t have to do it alone. I’ve built membership levels that actually help you learn, step by step, no tie-ins, no long-term lock-ins. Start where you want, grow at your pace, and move up as you get stronger.

🎬 YouTube Tip – Early access to public vids & my daily market news. See what I’m watching, how I read the strength, and the plan for the day.

💪 Supporter – All the above + extra marked-up videos so you can see exactly how I analyse charts and trades.

🚀 Supporter Plus – All the above + member-only trading videos, trade tracking, and my worksheets to follow my process.

🔥 Rogue – All the above + even more trading videos, Ask Scruff Q&A, and daily live session access.

💎 Rogue Plus – All the above + “Way of the Scruffy” modules, step-by-step guides, and all livestream replays.

🏆 Rogue One – All the above + 1-on-1 private session with me tailored to your trading.

💬 Discord is open to all members—an extra to give more value, not a requirement. Higher levels get deeper access and insight.

💡 Memberships are designed to suit all budgets and are locked in—no price changes, no surprises.

✅ Come and go as you like. Start at the top, start at the bottom. Learn, grow, and show yourself what you’re capable of.

📈 Take control of your trading. Join the Scruffy Trader Crew today and start trading smarter!


youtube.com/channel/UCC5gLHCPz_49xt2CDraKCnQ/join

2 days ago | [YT] | 11

The Scruffy Trader

Discord Access – Please Read Before Joining

Access Levels

✅ Rogue Plus & Rogue One
Full access. This is where the main discussion, trade breakdowns, and detailed guidance take place.

⚠️ Lower Tiers
Limited access. You’ll see selected channels, but core trading content is reserved for Rogue Plus / Rogue One.

⛔ Non-Members
Welcome screen only. You won’t be able to access the server until you join a membership tier.

✅Livestream Access for Rogue , Rogue Plus & Rogue One

Important – Activity Policy

A clean-up bot runs every Saturday.
If there’s no interaction for 10 days, the system assumes you’re no longer interested and access may be removed.

👉 If you prefer to stay hands-off and not engage in Discord, use the WhatsApp Updates Channel instead:
🔗 whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vb6tEGtGpLHYozTzEX3q

This keeps the Discord focused, active, and valuable for traders who want to be involved.

🔗 Discord Invite:
👉 discord.gg/EqEt7KZ8

👉 Not a member check here ==> youtube.com/channel/UCC5gLHCPz_49xt2CDraKCnQ/join

2 days ago | [YT] | 19

The Scruffy Trader

📊 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – March 6, 2026
Full Breakdown & How I Trade It

🧭 The Setup Going Into Today

Today's NFP report covers February 2026 employment and arrives in a pretty tense macro environment.

Markets were expecting around 50K jobs added, which would be a noticeable drop from January’s 130K, the strongest number since late 2024. Many traders already suspected January was a bit of an outlier, so the expectation was for February to show the underlying trend is still soft.

There’s also a key wildcard this month.

A Kaiser Permanente strike took roughly 31,000 healthcare workers off payrolls during the survey week. Healthcare has been one of the biggest job-creating sectors lately, so that strike alone could drag the headline lower.

Because of that, some banks (like BofA) were forecasting as low as 35K jobs added.

📊 ADP Preview (Private Payrolls)

The ADP number earlier this week printed 63K, beating expectations.

Key details:

• Education & Healthcare: +58K
• Construction: +19K
• Professional & Business Services: −30K

ADP doesn’t always match NFP, but the upside surprise raised the chance of a stronger official print.

📉 The Bigger Picture (Important Context)

After benchmark revisions, the entire 2025 jobs picture looked much weaker than originally reported.

Originally reported job growth:
➡️ 584K

Revised total:
➡️ 181K

That means average monthly job gains were only ~15K.

So the labour market hasn’t been nearly as strong as it looked.

Current expectations today:

• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
• Average Hourly Earnings: ~0.3% MoM
• Key level to watch: unemployment moving toward 4.4–4.5%

🏦 The Fed Situation

The Fed is currently sitting around 3.50% – 3.75% rates.

Markets expect NO change at the March 18 FOMC meeting.

But today could still shift expectations:

Very weak NFP (<30K):

• Rate cuts get priced in faster
• USD sells
• Gold rallies
• Yields drop

Strong NFP (>100K):

• USD rallies
• Yields rise
• Gold sells off
• Equities reaction becomes mixed

The complication right now is rising energy prices from Middle East tensions, which creates a potential stagflation scenario.

That means weak growth + rising inflation, which makes the Fed’s job very difficult.

🎯 The Way I Trade NFP (Simple & Consistent)

Trying to predict the number is gambling.

The cleanest way to trade NFP is to trade the spike, not the number.

My preferred approach is the Fibonacci retracement method.

⚡ Step 1 — Let The Spike Happen

When the number drops:

• Algorithms fire instantly
• Price spikes violently
• Spreads widen
• Liquidity disappears

The first move is often wrong.

So the rule is simple:

👉 Do nothing for the first minute or two.

Let the market create the spike.

📏 Step 2 — Draw The Fibonacci

Once the initial move forms:

1️⃣ Mark the spike high and spike low
2️⃣ Draw a Fibonacci retracement across the move
3️⃣ Focus on these key levels:

• 38.2%
• 50%
• 61.8%

These are the levels where institutions often reload positions.

📈 Step 3 — Wait For The Pullback Entry

Instead of chasing the spike:

Wait for price to retrace into the Fib zone.

Best entries tend to come from:

• 50% retracement
• 61.8% retracement

Then look for:

• rejection wicks
• momentum shift
• structure forming

That’s where the real trade often begins.

🛑 Step 4 — Risk Management

NFP volatility is real.

So:

• Stops must be wider than normal
• Avoid tight stops
• Target 2–3x your risk

Example structure:

Entry: 61.8 fib
Stop: Above spike extreme
Target: New high/low break

📊 Pairs I Watch Most

Best liquidity during NFP:

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• USD/JPY

Also worth watching:

• Gold (XAUUSD) – very reactive to NFP
• Indices (S&P / Nasdaq)

⚠️ Important NFP Lesson

The headline number is NOT the whole story.

Markets also react to:

• Unemployment rate
• Average hourly earnings
• Revisions to previous months

Sometimes the real move starts 5–10 minutes after the release, not immediately.

🧠 My Rule For NFP

I’m not trying to be first.

I’m trying to be right.

So the process is simple:

1️⃣ Let the spike happen
2️⃣ Draw the fib
3️⃣ Wait for retracement to start quick snap trade
4️⃣ Trade the continuation if confident

That approach removes the guesswork and lets the market show its hand first.

4 days ago | [YT] | 4

The Scruffy Trader

All welcome

4 days ago | [YT] | 11

The Scruffy Trader

Roughly what size account do you have

(Will help me decide what to show you to help in future)

4 days ago | [YT] | 7

The Scruffy Trader

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4 days ago | [YT] | 9

The Scruffy Trader

(Get Way of Scruff Course Modules FREE)
👉 go.blackbull.com/visit/?bta=36326&nci=7966

5 days ago | [YT] | 11

The Scruffy Trader

Discord Access – Please Read Before Joining

Access Levels

✅ Rogue Plus & Rogue One
Full access. This is where the main discussion, trade breakdowns, and detailed guidance take place.

⚠️ Lower Tiers
Limited access. You’ll see selected channels, but core trading content is reserved for Rogue Plus / Rogue One.

⛔ Non-Members
No chat

Important – Activity Policy

A clean-up bot runs every Saturday.
If there’s no interaction for 10 days, the system assumes you’re no longer interested and access may be removed.

👉 If you prefer to stay hands-off and not engage in Discord, use the WhatsApp Updates Channel instead:
🔗 whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vb6t...

This keeps the Discord focused, active, and valuable for traders who want to be involved.

🔗 Discord Invite:
👉 discord.gg/Haru2xyb

5 days ago (edited) | [YT] | 8

The Scruffy Trader

www.the5ers.com/?afmc=63 5% off

5 days ago | [YT] | 2

The Scruffy Trader

Reeves’ Spring Statement, A Masterclass in Missing the Point

Well, what a waste of an afternoon that was 😑 Rachel Reeves stood up in the Commons and delivered what can only be described as a victory lap for a race nobody’s actually won yet 🏁 When Mel Stride opened with “Is that it?” he nailed it. That was the mood. Complacency dressed up as confidence. A Chancellor in complete denial 🙄

Let’s start with the obvious 📉 The FTSE 100 was deep in the red, down roughly 2.6%, while she was on her feet telling the country everything was under control. The markets were flashing warning lights 🚨 and she was polishing the narrative ✨ It felt less like leadership and more like a sideshow, as if events were happening around her rather than being addressed head on.

On growth 📊 the downgrade speaks for itself. The OBR has cut its 2026 forecast to 1.1%, down from 1.4% just a few months ago. That might sound marginal on paper, but in an economy already struggling for momentum, it matters. You can’t weaponise forecasts when they suit you and dismiss them as temporary noise when they don’t 🤷‍♂️

Unemployment tells a similar story 👥 It’s already at 5.2%, and the OBR now expects it to peak at 5.3% this year, higher than previously predicted. That’s not abstract economics. That’s real people struggling to find work in a slowing job market 💼 Yet there was no serious attempt to address it.

Then there’s the tax burden 💷 Labour has raised taxes by £66 billion, roughly £2,300 per household. The rise in employer National Insurance has hit small businesses particularly hard 🏪 When you squeeze employers, hiring slows. When hiring slows, unemployment rises. It’s not complicated. You cannot tax your way to sustainable growth.

The debate around GDP versus GDP per capita is another point that can’t just be brushed aside 📈 Overall GDP can look respectable on a headline basis while living standards stagnate or fall. If the average person feels poorer, then the growth story isn’t landing where it matters. That’s the reality on the ground.

And underpinning all of this are forecasts drawn up before geopolitical tensions sent energy prices sharply higher 🌍 Gas prices have surged, oil has climbed ⛽ and yet the entire statement leaned on projections that already feel dated. Building a case for stability on numbers that don’t reflect current conditions is risky at best ⚠️

On housing 🏠 the government’s own target of 1.5 million homes is slipping out of reach, with net additions expected to fall to around 220,000 this year. That’s another pledge drifting quietly off course.

What was most striking was the absence of anything new 🗣️ No meaningful policy shift. No fresh measures. No recognition that the economic mood has changed. Just a repetition of the same plan, delivered as if repetition alone makes it convincing.

People don’t need to read forecasts to know how the economy feels. They see it in their energy bills ⚡ in their mortgage payments 🏡 in the cost of the weekly shop 🛒 and in a job market that isn’t as secure as it should be.

What we got wasn’t reassurance grounded in reality. It was a Chancellor insisting the plan is working while more and more indicators suggest otherwise 📉 That disconnect is the real problem.

6 days ago | [YT] | 11