Survive Nuclear Attack

Ah shit, here we go again.
In the past 48 hours, the two main global hubs for spreading fake news — the Kremlin’s press office and Italian newspapers — have discovered that Iran has a nuclear power plant, the one in Bushehr, which has been operational since 2011.
Delighted to gift the West a little panic, the Russians began warning of nuclear catastrophes in case of an Israeli strike on the reactor (ca.news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-strike-irans...), and this was promptly amplified by Italian newspapers, where the fact-checking process is entrusted to a team of highly coordinated raccoons, hired for their skill in rummaging through trash (see image 1).

Since fake news apparently wasn’t enough, 24 hours ago the IDF press office issued an official statement claiming to have struck Iranian nuclear sites again, INCLUDING the Bushehr plant (economictimes.indiatimes.com/.../121953202.cms...).
Then, a few hours later, the statement was withdrawn, and the strikes were confirmed to have targeted enrichment sites and the Arak research reactor instead (www.reuters.com/.../israeli-military-says-it.../; trt.global/world/article/a606dab710a1).

Now, forgive me if this post sounds a little angrier than usual, but I have a mild PTSD about this stuff and an ongoing lawsuit with an Italian politician (whom I can’t name or he’ll sue me again — let’s just call him Diavolo Cattivelli). So if you're one of those “I appreciate the science communication, but I don’t like your tone” types, I suggest you stop reading RIGHT NOW.

Let’s rewind the clock three years and three months: the night between March 4 and 5, 2022, the Russian ̶Z̶e̶r̶g̶ army attacks the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
On the morning of March 5, the IAEA releases a statement saying there’s no radiation release. That same afternoon, the American Nuclear Society writes that “even in case of core meltdown, the contamination would not spread beyond a 10 km radius.”
On March 6, Corriere della Sera puts Gramellini on the front page claiming we could all die and that the “z” in “Zaporizhzhia” is a harbinger of humanity’s end.

In the days that followed, virtually EVERY Italian newspaper (and politician) competed to see who could shout the loudest: “danger for all of Europe,” “six times worse than Chernobyl,” “global threat,” and so on.
Meanwhile, we were pulling all-nighters writing debunking articles and responding to thousands of messages from terrified people.

In August 2022, the cooling of one of Zaporizhzhia’s (offline) reactors was interrupted, causing another wave of panic: journalists tore their hair out in public screaming about nuclear catastrophe, and we started receiving messages from pharmacies telling us people were lining up to get iodine pills (which, by the way, should NEVER be taken without specific instruction from health authorities — you could ruin your thyroid).

This circus went on FOR OVER A YEAR.
Even in June 2023, when the Nova Kakhovka dam was destroyed (BY THE RUSSIANS — if I catch one more Putin apologist spouting nonsense about this, I’m banning them on sight), the Italian media weren’t concerned about the environmental disaster, two oblasts potentially losing access to drinking water, disease, or famine.
No, their top worry was — again — the nuclear plant (which by then had been in cold shutdown for 8 months).

Three years and three months later, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAS HAPPENED at Zaporizhzhia.
Why?
Simple: because nothing could have happened.

Bombing an active nuclear reactor MAKES NO SENSE tactically, operationally, or strategically. If you want to disrupt power supply, just destroy the transformers and/or turbine hall. Even if your goal is to make the area uninhabitable, a chemical agent or cobalt dirty bomb would do much more damage.

Reactors have containment buildings that can only be penetrated with bunker-buster munitions.

Even if the containment is breached and the vessel compromised, the core wouldn’t continue fissioning (as in Chernobyl) because moderation would immediately cease. You’d get a core meltdown and radiation release, but on a MUCH smaller scale than Chernobyl — closer to Fukushima — and with contamination limited to a few dozen km around the reactor.

Health impacts on the population would appear (if at all) DECADES LATER. The international outrage and war crimes charges would arrive much sooner.

We said it three years ago — it didn’t make sense for anything to happen, and in fact, nothing did. But of course, no dung-beetle journalist has paid or ever will pay for the fearmongering and alarmism.

Back to today: since History is the Teacher of Life, but Italian journalists are repeat flunkers, we’re about to replay the scene at Bushehr.
But I have much less patience than I did three years ago, so...

The Bushehr reactor (there’s only one) is IDENTICAL to the six Zaporizhzhia reactors: a Russian VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor of the second generation, predecessor to the VVER-1200.
As a pressurized water reactor (with containment, no flammable graphite, and no positive reactivity coefficients), a Chernobyl-style scenario is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. Not because humanity learned anything, but because physics says so.

The Bushehr plant provides a tiny portion of Iran’s energy needs. Even if the goal is to destroy electricity supply, there are better targets. And again, hitting the turbine hall (not protected by containment) would suffice — no need to touch the reactor.

Even minor contamination of the Persian Gulf’s waters would be a geopolitical suicide for Israel — instantly alienating Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait.

Hitting the reactor would require a bunker-buster warhead (far more effectively used elsewhere), and the net benefit would be ZERO. Any health consequences would only show up decades later — and only in the absence of any preventive measures.

Even assuming Netanyahu just wants to rack up war crime charges for fun (and, hey, maybe someone suspects that...), the amount of firepower needed to cause radiological contamination at Bushehr would cause more immediate casualties literally anywhere else it was used.

Operation summary:
Costs: High economic cost, high military cost, near-infinite geopolitical cost.
Benefits: Zero, not even for pure villain points.

My forecast: Israel will not touch the Bushehr reactor — and if it does, it will only strike non-nuclear facilities.
If I turn out to be wrong, I’ll own up to it.
BUT UNTIL THEN, IF JOURNALISTS COULD JUST SHUT THE HELL UP ABOUT TOPICS THEY DON’T KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT, IT WOULD BE BETTER FOR EVERYONE.

Postscript: Among the nuclear facilities hit by Israel was the Arak research reactor — a heavy-water reactor capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium (though not yet used for that purpose).
Research reactor containment buildings are nowhere near as thick or resistant as power reactor ones — they’re designed to shield much lower radiation levels and protect a far less dangerous core.
From the satellite photo, you can see the containment was "punctured".
However, the reactor was shut down and had no radioactive material in the core, so there was no radiological contamination — as confirmed by the IAEA

Please don’t make me revisit this topic in the coming weeks. I BEG YOU.
— Luke

8 months ago | [YT] | 0