HKMTCAC 香港氣象與熱帶氣旋分析中心

【非官方2025年風季預測】HKMTCAC曾經於今年3月初發佈2025年全年天氣展望並且當時提及到預料2025年將會有5-7個熱帶氣旋進入香港500公里範圍內及風季於10月下旬-11月上旬左右完結。基於今年6-8月已經有多於4個熱帶氣旋進入香港500公里範圍內（考慮到熱帶氣旋楊柳，如無意外亦都會於未來數日進入香港500公里範圍內）而且根據最新電腦模式的長期預報及季度預報而及按照現時季度的實際情況而及參考過去類似大氣環境的年度，HKMTCAC 決定根據最新數據作出分析及評估並且更新預測。根據最新評估及分析，HKMTCAC最新預測：預料2025年會有5-9個熱帶氣旋進入香港500公里範圍內，數目屬於正常-偏多。HKMTCAC亦都預料今年風季完結時間為10月下旬或以後。市民需要留意，由於年度預報的預測期較長，因此預報內容的誤差可能較大，預報只供參考。這個預報為HKMTCAC 的預測，並非天文台。 HKMTCAC會繼續跟進2025全年天氣展望的最新情況，並會於適當及有需要的時候再作調整。[Unofficial 2025 Typhoon Season Forecast] HKMTCAC released its 2025 annual weather outlook in early March of this year, predicting that 5 to 7 tropical cyclones will come within 500 kilometers of Hong Kong in 2025, with the typhoon season ending between late October and early November. Given that more than four tropical cyclones already came within 500 kilometers of Hong Kong between June and August this year (and considering that Tropical Cyclone Podul is expected to do so in the coming days, barring unforeseen circumstances), as well as based on the latest sub-seasonal and seasonal range forecasts from computer models, the actual conditions of the current season. In addition to taking reference to similar atmospheric conditions in past years, the HKMTCAC has decided to re-analyze and re-evaluate the latest data and update its forecast. Based on the latest assessment and analysis, HKMTCAC latest prediction is: We expect 5 - 9 tropical cyclones are expected to come within 500 kilometers of Hong Kong in 2025, an amount range that is between normal to above-normal. HKMTCAC also expects that the typhoon season this year will end in late October or even later. Members of the public should note that because the forecast period of the annual forecast is long, so there is a chance that there may be a forecast error, hence the forecast is for reference only. This forecast is from HKMTCAC, not from the Hong Kong Observatory. HKMTCAC will continue to follow up on the latest weather outlook for 2025, and will update it when necessary.

1 month ago | [YT] | 4

HKMTCAC 香港氣象與熱帶氣旋分析中心

意見表連結/Survey form link: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfbOVcw_d35YjfeYw…
【HKMTCAC 風暴影響後意見表--風暴韋帕 】我知道大家今日因為打風都攰，不過為了幫助HKMTCAC於未來更上一層樓，希望大家可以用少少時間將這個HKMTCAC風暴影響程度意見表填一下。HKMTCAC希望你表達你是否覺得HKMTCAC今次對這個熱帶氣旋作出適當及足夠預警，容易明白HKMTCAC所提出的預報，對風暴直播等等提出意見並引導HKMTCAC去改善。多謝大家 !【Post-Storm Impact Survey-- Storm Wipha 】I know you are tired today because of the typhoon, but to help HKMTCAC in the future to a higher level, I hope you can take a little time to fill out this HKMTCAC storm impact opinion form. In order to guide HKMTCAC to improve, please let me know whether you think HKMTCAC has given appropriate and sufficient warnings for this tropical cyclone, whether it is easy to understand the forecast provided by HKMTCAC, and suggestions to improve the storm live broadcast, etc. Thank you so much!

2 months ago | [YT] | 0

HKMTCAC 香港氣象與熱帶氣旋分析中心

「天有不測之風雲」相信大家都聽過這句說話吧！現時電腦模式及人手，對於準確及精準地預測超過1或2個月後的天氣亦都感到相當困難，甚至覺得無可能。那為什麼有人可以預測到2024年以後的年份的天氣等情況呢？大家覺得現時電腦及人手有能力去詳細及準確地預測2032年，2047年，甚至是3042年的天氣及世界狀況嗎？ 相信大部分氣象迷都留意到近年社交媒體上亦都傳出一些所謂「荒謬」的「神童式預測」。 雖然天文台及其他氣象組織都會作出一些長期預報，不過不會這麼詳細，較為簡短。當這個世界上有多個氣象專家正在努力為大家分析及預測天氣時，他們亦都會考慮到怎麼能避免「狼來了」這個情況，所以希望大家可以避免相信一些比較相似「占卜」或者是「亂講」的神童預測，並如果對未來天氣有疑惑，HKMTCAC建議大家首先到官方或其他氣象組織查詢。 HKMTCAC亦都強烈譴責作出這些「占卜」的「神童式」去誤導普通市民的人，希望儘早停止這些所謂「預測」。Current computer models and meteorologists find it difficult or impossible to predict the weather accurately beyond one or two months. So why can someone predict the weather and other conditions in years after 2024? Do you think that current humans have the ability to predict the weather and world conditions in 2032, 2047, or even 3042 in detail and accurately? I believe most meteorology fans have noticed that some so-called "ridiculous" "genius-style predictions" have been posted on social medias in recent years. Although the Observatory and other meteorological organizations will make some long-term forecasts, they will not be so detailed and will be simple. When many meteorological experts worldwide work hard to analyze and predict the weather for everyone, they will also consider how to avoid false alarm situations, so I hope everyone can avoid believing in similar "fortune-telling " style forecasts. If you have any doubts about the weather, HKMTCAC recommends first checking with the official or other meteorological organizations. HKMTCAC also strongly condemns those who mislead citizens by making these ridiculous predictions and hopes they can stop this as soon as possible.

1 year ago | [YT] | 4

HKMTCAC 香港氣象與熱帶氣旋分析中心

【TWHKWeather 正製作一個精彩嘅項目，想搵你哋幫手！】
各位，TWHKWeather 正製作一個精彩的項目，該項目與5年前（2017年）襲港的熱帶氣旋洛克有關。如果你們仍然保存住2017年熱帶氣旋洛克相關的預報同分析圖，例如：電腦模式預測圖，不同國家對其的路徑圖，當時大氣環境分析圖（垂直風切變變化圖同渦度圖)，風場圖，風場掃描圖同雷達圖等等。麻煩你們經過TWHKWeather不同的社交媒體 DM (Direct Message) TWHKWeather 吧！多謝你們！
Folks, TWHKWeather is working on a wonderful project related to Tropical Cyclone Roke which affected Hong Kong 5 years ago (2017). If you kept and still have the forecast and analysis charts related to Tropical Cyclone Roke in 2017, such as: computer model forecast charts, tropical cyclone tracks of different countries, atmospheric environment analysis charts at that time (vertical wind shear change charts and vorticity charts), wind Field map, tropical cyclone wind field scan chart, radar etc. Please DM (Direct Message) TWHKWeather through different social medias! Thank you!

#洛克 #熱帶風暴 #8號風球 #香港氣象 #香港天氣 #天氣 #打風 #8號烈風或暴風信號 #8號西北烈風或暴風信號 #熱帶氣旋 #颱風

2 years ago | [YT] | 5

HKMTCAC 香港氣象與熱帶氣旋分析中心

想快啲收到TWHKWeather發出嘅天氣消息？快啲訂閱TWHKWeather以下嘅社交媒體啦！Want to receive the latest weather news from TWHKWeather quickly? Go and subscribe to the following social medias of TWHKWeather!
Youtube: youtube.com/@twhkweather/about
Facebook: www.facebook.com/twhkweather/
Instagram: www.instagram.com/twhkweather/
Telegram: t.me/twhkweather

2 years ago | [YT] | 6