中環十一少 Mr.11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOPUK...

Japan Seeks Better Ties With China Ahead Of Second Trump Term
Voice Of America | December 26, 2024
Japan and China are seeking to improve relations ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but analysts say Beijing’s aggressive military activities across the Indo-Pacific region will make it hard for the sides to reduce longstanding tensions.

“Tokyo does want to have smoother ties with Beijing, given the likely tumultuousness of the U.S.-China relationship and also the global situation more broadly once Trump comes into office,” said Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

Cake Of Sino-U.S Cooperation Can Be Made Bigger
China Daily | December 26, 2024
The 45-year-old China-U.S Science and Technology Agreement was recently extended for another five years, as agreed by the two sides. The international community has generally welcomed the renewal of the agreement, believing that Sino-U.S scientific research cooperation is not only in the interests of the people of the two countries, but will also promote the two sides to cope with common global challenges.

Over the 45 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the two countries have strived to be partners not opponents. The common interests of China and the U.S have long been deeply intertwined. Mutual benefit and win-win results are the essential characteristics of the relationship between the two countries.

Biden Steps Up Anti-China Trade War And Provides A Springboard For Trump
WSWS | December 26, 2024
In one of its last actions on the economic front, the outgoing Biden administration has announced a trade-war investigation into so-called anti-competitive practices by the Chinese semi-conductor industry. This will provide the Trump administration with more weapons in its economic war against Beijing.

The latest measures represent a significant escalation of the actions of the Biden administration which has been seeking to cut off China from access to the most advanced chips needed for high-tech development and from chip-making equipment. Previous measures have been imposed on the grounds that access to these products would provide China with the means to develop its military capacities.

U.S Government Opens Investigation Into China’s Semiconductor “Anticompetitive” Trade Practices
Media Nama | December 26, 2024
The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has launched an investigation into China’s semiconductor trade policies and practices, alleging that the latter sought to “dominate” global market via “extensive anticompetitive and non-market means,” the USTR office said in a press release. The investigation seeks to assess if China’s practices ultimately contribute to any “unreasonableness or discrimination or burden or restriction on U.S. commerce.”

This investigation, undertaken by the outgoing Joe Biden administration, will first focus on China’s manufacturing of foundational semiconductors— also known as legacy or mature node semiconductors — found in everyday use electronic products. It will look into the extent to which Chinese semiconductors are incorporated as components into downstream products for major industries like defence, automotive, medical devices, aerospace, telecommunications, and power generation and the electrical grid.

9 months ago | [YT] | 0

中環十一少 Mr.11

長期以嚟，用嚟睇股票市場健康狀況嘅一個重要指標，就係睇股票嘅「參與廣度」。最近，有唔少人問關於廣度嘅問題，因為 12 月份嘅廣度數據真係差到出奇，但股指居然仲企喺歷史高位附近。呢種情況唔係成日見到，所以有人開始懷疑廣度仲值唔值參考，覺得佢作為價格訊號嘅重要性可能冇以前咁大。不過，根據經驗，唔睇廣度通常係一個好大嘅錯誤，而上星期發生嘅事再次證明咗廣度嘅重要性——佢早早已經「預告」咗聯儲局可能冇辦法滿足市場對寬鬆政策嘅期待。

有趣嘅係，自從 12 月初開始，廣度惡化同 10 年期美國國債收益率穩步上升係同步發生，最後仲突破咗 4.5% 呢個關鍵位。利率升咗咁多，對股市嚟講壓力自然大咗。事實上，當利率升得犀利嘅時候，股票估值倍數同利率嘅相關性會變成負數，呢個就進一步拖低咗市場表現。

### 投資者行為改變同市場集中化

另一個值得留意嘅現象係，越嚟越多投資者將「價格動能」當做主要嘅投資策略。過去幾年，市場缺乏「均值回歸」，即係贏家繼續贏，輸家繼續輸，咁好多投資者就索性「放生」啲贏家，唔再理再平衡策略。呢種行為令市場變得極度集中，唔單止喺美國，全球市場都係咁。正如品質因子（Quality Factor）依家已經係一個擁擠到爆炸嘅現象，全球都係咁。而喺美國以外嘅市場，由於高品質公司比例低，呢啲公司嘅估值溢價更加誇張。

呢個亦都解釋咗點解標普 500 指數嘅交易溢價遠遠高過外國股指同低品質股票（例如中小型股）。市場對價格動能嘅過度關注，進一步拉大咗廣度同價格之間嘅脫節，亦令到好多人直到本週先至開始正視呢個問題。

### 廣度同流動性：歷史經驗同現實挑戰

最後，想講嘅係，大型股嘅品質同動能策略吸引力，再加上低成本被動投資產品嘅普及，令標普 500 指數嘅溢價/利差持續擴大。特別係，標普 500 指數股票中高於 200 日移動平均線嘅比例，已經同整體市場嘅 200 日移動平均線廣度拉開咗好大嘅距離。

回顧過去 25 年，大部分時間呢啲比率都係幾穩定嘅，偏離咗都會好快回歸正常。不過，歷史上有兩次例外：一次係 1999 年，另外一次就係 2023 年 4 月至今。呢兩次嘅共同點就係流動性過度充裕。1999 年，聯儲局為咗應對「千禧年蟲」風險，採取咗過度寬鬆嘅政策；而依家，隨住 2023 年 4 月逆回購工具（RRP）規模達到 2.5 萬億美元頂峰，市場流動性進一步推高咗呢啲比率嘅差距。

依家嘅問題係，隨住 RRP 工具慢慢縮減，聯儲局會唔會喺明年初進一步收緊流動性？定係如果聯儲局減息幅度超出市場預期，甚至結束量化緊縮（QT），流動性可以繼續保持？呢啲問題而家未有答案。但可以肯定嘅係，當流動性充裕嘅環境消退，廣度同價格之間嘅異常可能會逐漸正常化。

### 展望未來：品質同價格動能嘅角力

對於擁有高品質同強動能嘅指數嚟講，廣度嘅重要性可能真係冇以前咁大。具體嚟講，依家嘅市場條件進一步支持咗品質因子的投資價值。根據上週嘅股價調整，昂貴且無利可圖嘅成長股同低品質週期性股票，可能最容易受到長期高利率同流動性減少嘅影響。隨住 RRP 工具規模逐漸縮減，呢啲股票嘅壓力可能會進一步加劇。

總結嚟講，廣度雖然短期內可能會被忽視，但佢仍然係一個重要嘅市場健康指標。而當流動性趨緊嘅時候，市場結構性嘅問題同潛在風險會更加明顯，呢啲係投資者唔可以掉以輕心嘅地方。

9 months ago | [YT] | 10

中環十一少 Mr.11

決定咗更頻密咁跟進一下中美關係，因為最新情況人人都想知，最近美國提出一個重大建議，想取消同中國的永久貿易關係，講白咗就係想減少對中國貨品嘅依賴。

對於好多以前靠中國生產嘅美國企業嚟講，呢個情況都幾頭痛。要搵新嘅供應商，重新安排生產，都需要時間同金錢。數據顯示到2023年，中國喺美國市場已經跌咗7.7%。

另外，大家都留意到科技界巨頭英偉達最近都遇到麻煩。因為中國開展反壟斷調查，令到佢股價受影響。呢件事反映出中美企業之間嘅緊張關係，特別係喺人工智能呢啲新科技方面。

睇嚟中美關係仲會繼續緊張，但係我哋普通市民最緊要就係留意新聞，了解情況，諗下會唔會影響到自己嘅生活，例如啲貨品價錢會唔會貴咗咁。

總之呢個形勢仲會繼續發展，大家記得留意新聞啦。

China Abused Its U.S Trade Relationship, But Trump Can Fix It
Fox News | December 9, 2024
The Chinese Communist Party has destroyed millions of American jobs and stolen trillions of dollars in American intellectual property. By its own actions, Beijing has forfeited its preferential trade status with the United States. That is why we, along with Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley, have authored a comprehensive repeal of China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations. Our legislation would strategically decouple the U.S and Chinese economies and end China’s economic war on American workers and businesses.

In 2000, our nation’s leaders granted Permanent Normal Trade Relations to China and provided the Chinese Communist Party with open access to the American economy. They believed China would become freer as it grew rich and that our companies would benefit from fair and free access to over 1.2 billion Chinese consumers. That simply has not happened.

China's Nvidia Probe Is An Escalation In U.S Trade War
Yahoo Finance | December 9, 2024
Nvidia shares are trading lower after news that China has opened an antitrust probe into the artificial intelligence (AI) chip maker. The company is also facing a U.S antitrust investigation. The Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman joins Morning Brief with Seana Smith and Brad Smith to discuss his read on the probe and what it means for Nvidia as well as U.S-China trade relations.

"Nobody should be surprised to hear about an ongoing set of probes against Nvidia, especially coming from China," Newman says, explaining there are "two sides to this one:" the "ongoing microaggressions that exist between Chinese and U.S firms" and "China [continuing] to struggle to keep up with the most leading edge advanced AI chip" so "they probably want to do what they can to slow U.S firms down."

How The U.S-China Trade Dispute Is Redefining Global Trade
ING Think | December 9, 2024
The global market landscape has undergone significant transformations since the onset of the U.S-China trade dispute in 2018. The imposition of tariffs and a shift towards protectionism have forced companies on both sides of the Pacific to rethink their supply chains and sourcing strategies. Chinese firms, in particular, have seen a notable decline in their U.S market share.

By 2023, China’s overall market share in the U.S had dropped by 7.7 percentage points to 13.9%, with even steeper declines in tariff-affected sectors. For instance, the market share for Chinese leather goods and furniture plummeted from 57.2% to 23.7%, and from 52% to 29.4% to between 2017 and 2023.

9 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 1

中環十一少 Mr.11

US-CHINA PODCAST
December 5, 2024

In this episode of US-SINO Daily, we explore the evolving dynamics of US-China relations as both nations grapple with trade tariffs, technological competition, and historical scientific exchanges. From Donald Trump's tariff plans to the Biden administration's semiconductor restrictions and China's recent export bans, we discuss the implications of these developments and the potential for collaboration in agriculture and beyond.

China, U.S Have Much To Learn From Each Other
China Daily | December 5, 2024
One of the top priorities of Donald Trump after he takes oath as U.S president may not be what American people, in general, think. Although he has vowed to impose additional 10 percent tariffs on all goods from China as one of his first executive orders, he has left the door open for action by China and made clear the issues which concern him most.

Though U.S Vice-President Kamala Harris criticized Trump's tariff threats during her failed presidency bid, the Biden-Harris administration retained tariffs Trump imposed on $370 billion worth of Chinese goods, while also slapping 100 percent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

U.S Agricultural Success Built On U.S-China Scientific Exchange
New Security Beat | December 5, 2024
. . . Agricultural exchanges created by Shanghai Communiqué planted the first “seeds” that grew into decades of U.S-Chinese collaboration and open trade relations. Coordinated by the National Academy of Sciences, a group of Chinese agricultural scientists visited the United States in 1973 to learn about insect control in crops. Six more Chinese agricultural groups followed, and five US groups traveled to China. These successful exchanges helped open the door to the Science and Technology (S&T) Agreement that was signed in 1979 when President Jimmy Carter and Deng Xiaoping established diplomatic relations.

The agreement set the framework for government agencies, universities, and other organizations to cooperate across a broad range of S&T issues. Besides launching 40+ years of agricultural exchanges and scientific research, the agreement catalyzed joint research in chemistry, earth, and atmospheric sciences and opened up cooperation on climate change, health, environmental protection, energy and more.

U.S And China Trade More Blows In Battle For Semiconductor Chip Supremacy
Marketplace | December 5, 2024
It’s been a busy week when it comes to U.S.-China trade policy — particularly in the important realm of semiconductors and the materials that go into the chips crucial for a lot of cutting-edge technology, like the latest AI. Moves by both the U.S. and China this week mark flash points in a simmering conflict over who controls the world’s most powerful chips.

For the last few years, the Biden administration has been working to limit further advancement of China’s semiconductor industry. On Monday, the U.S. cracked down even further. “President Biden tightened tech chip controls on China, basically trying to restrict China’s access or ability to produce higher-end AI chips, which are deemed of interest to various security interests,” said Cory Combs, an associate director at Trivium China, a political economy research firm.

What China Gains From Ban On Rare Mineral Exports To U.S
DW | December 5, 2024
On Tuesday, China's Commerce Ministry announced that it was banning the export of certain minerals and metals to the United States. The products, such as gallium, germanium and antimony, are so-called dual-use items, which can be used in the production of semiconductors and also for a wide range of military and technological applications.

China's move is a direct response to export controls that the United States placed on Beijing on Monday. The U.S and Chinese actions are the latest exchanges in the countries' rivalry, with much of the recent focus being around trade, the production of military technology and the development of artificial intelligence. "It's a hardening and a defensiveness on both the Chinese and the United States side, and it's not a new phenomenon for either country," Claire Reade, a senior counsel with Washington, DC, legal firm Arnold & Porter and an expert in US-China trade relations, told DW.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qmyE...

9 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 0

中環十一少 Mr.11

12月，新搞作。

9 months ago | [YT] | 3