Dinesh C Nagpal

🔌 ADANI ENERGY SOLUTIONS (ADANIENSOL)
India's largest private transmission company with presence across various facets of the energy domain — specifically power transmission, distribution, smart metering, and cooling solutions.

📉 TECHNICAL SETUP — Weekly TF
A Bearish Harmonic Alt Bat Pattern has activated on the weekly chart, pointing to a measured downside move. Harmonic patterns are a synergy of chart structure with Fibonacci ratios and are recognised for early reversal signals — giving traders a defined edge with clear invalidation levels.

🎯 First target: ₹1,275🎯 Extended target: ₹1,075 (key support — prior parallel channel & Inverse H&S breakout zone)
🛑Pattern Invalidation (Stop Loss): Above 1460

⚠️ FUNDAMENTAL RISKS (Post Q4 FY26 Results)
Despite strong headline numbers (revenue +17% YoY, PAT ₹684 Cr in Q4), risks persist:

Transmission line additions have already fallen short of targets, with a 42% gap reported in FY2025. As of June 2025, over 50 GW of renewable energy capacity remains stranded due to grid connectivity issues.

Refinancing risk associated with significant bullet debt repayments due in July and August 2026.

High valuation — the 17.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA multiple implies investors are paying a significant premium for future earnings, leaving little room for error.

Low interest coverage ratio.

✅Conclusion

Investors should consider reviewing the stock either above ₹1,460 (pattern invalidation) or near ₹1,275. If ₹1,275 fails to hold, waiting for ₹1,075 presents an aggressive long entry from a risk-reward perspective.

Short-term traders can consider bearish derivatives positions (based on individual risk appetite) via a hedged strategy, given this is a weekly timeframe signal where moves take time to play out.

#adaniensol #powersector #stockmarket #TradePlan #investing #nifty #sharemarket #StockGains

2 days ago | [YT] | 7

Dinesh C Nagpal

NTPC – Bearish Harmonic Bat Pattern 🦇📉

On the weekly timeframe, NTPC has completed a Bearish Harmonic Bat Pattern — a structure signalling caution and potential reversal ahead.

📐 What is a Harmonic Pattern?
Harmonic Trading Patterns are a beautiful synergy of market structure and Fibonacci, renowned for their ability to identify early reversal signals before the crowd catches on.

🗺️ Levels That Matter:

Above 430 - Pattern invalid above this
Below 404 - Confirmation trigger for bears
Above 414 - Stop loss for short trades (swing high)
Targets 1 & 2 - 390 & 360

⚙️ Trade Setup
Derivative Traders: Once the stock confirms a reversal below 404, short-term traders can consider:

🔴 Short Futures
🔴 Buy Puts

🛑 Stop Loss — 414 (swing high)

✅ Conclusion
Fresh Buying Strategy: Aggressive buyers — patience is your edge. Wait for the stock to either:

📉 Dip into the 390–360 zone, or

📈 Reclaim and sustain above 430

Both appear far better entry points than chasing it here.

#HarmonicTrading #BatPattern #NTPC #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #NSE #DerivativeTrading #FibonacciTrading #StockMarketIndia #OptionsTrading

1 week ago | [YT] | 8

Dinesh C Nagpal

ONGC – Daily Chart Setup 🔍
Between 2nd Mar – 1st Apr 2026, ONGC formed a V-shaped cup on the daily chart, followed by a handle in a triangle consolidation with shrinking volumes — a classic sign of energy building up.

Two scenarios in play:
🔺 Triangle plays out → Stock holds 281 → Target 305 & 325
📉 Handle dips first → Stock could slide to 250 to complete pullback

Breakout above 293 → Target 325

Stop-loss:
🔴 Triangle trade — below 281
🔴 Zig Zag correction — below 250

Both setups offer a solid risk-reward for traders.

📊 Bias — Bullish till C&H pattern remains valid

#TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #StockMarket #NSE #CupAndHandle #stockoptions888 #StockGains #tradingView #optiontrading

1 week ago | [YT] | 6

Dinesh C Nagpal

ADANI ENTERPRISES




Weekly Chart – Technical Outlook

The weekly chart witnessed a triangle breakdown in January 2026, which triggered a sell-off leading to a swing low by the end of March. Following this, the stock staged a throwback rally back toward the breakdown level, which held up until yesterday, and selling pressure has now resumed from that zone.



Key Levels to Watch

Immediate support is placed in the 2250–2225 range. A failure to hold this zone opens the door for a deeper decline toward 1475. On the upside, any meaningful recovery would only gain traction on a sustained move above 2300, which could then propel the stock toward the 2550–2750 gap area.



Outlook

Short Term — Bearish

Medium Term — Neutral; directional clarity will emerge only on a decisive move above 2300 or a breakdown below 2225.



#adanient #nifty50 #stockmarket #sharemarket #stocksinfocus #stocktowatch #Trading #TradingvIEW #investing #sensex

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 6

Dinesh C Nagpal

Dollar Index will complete the 1st Bearish Harmonic Dragon trgt @ 97.
+ve #gold #silver & equities (in general) -ve #crude
Pre war when #DXY was weak #rupee also remained weak, FII were in selling mode. This time if INR get stronger, might see FII in buying mode once again

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 6

Dinesh C Nagpal

GODAWARI POWER triangle breakout with volumes
A lot of +ve news has come out in the last 2 weeks - new steel plant announced, highest iron ore production & consent for waste heat recovery power plant
Probable triangle target 340, invalid below 245. Short-term range 270 - 305

4 weeks ago | [YT] | 7

Dinesh C Nagpal

As said earlier Ichimoku time correction ended in Mar.
#nifty res 24200.
Next 30 days v stock specific action as Q4 results season kicks in.
As a new uptrend emerges smart money will shuffle portfolios - potential leaders / laggards.

1 month ago | [YT] | 4

Dinesh C Nagpal

At 22300, NIFTY will complete a Bearish Harmonic Dragon pattern, with a minimum expected target. Around this level, look out for short covering/fresh long/bullish candle follow-through signals.
Note that it's essential to wait for confirmation.
#nifty #stockmarket #optionselling

1 month ago | [YT] | 12