My name is Russell McDonald and I'm a mortgage broker, real estate broker and inventor in the SF Bay Area. I've been working in these fields for more than 30 years. This has given me certain insights into finance, credit and technology and I want to share some of that information with you here. I have two mortgage companies and a software company that provides very niche solutions inside the mortgage space. Basically if we ever need a specific tool first we try to just find it in the open marketplace. It's a lot easier to buy a program than create one. If we cannot find what we want then we go about creating it. Sometimes these tools are only used in-house at my other companies and sometimes we make them available to the public.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital, Inc. | NMLS 18766
TRADMOR.COM, Inc. | NMLS 1637088
Mortgage Magic
🚨 DON'T LET THE 4.1% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOOL YOU.
The July Jobs Report showed some serious cracks underneath the surface. 📉
❌ 23,000 jobs LOST
⚠️ 103,000 jobs erased from May and June through revisions
📉 Labor force participation fell to 61.4%
💵 Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.2%
🤔 Yet unemployment fell to 4.1%
That sounds contradictory, but there's a reason.
When someone stops working AND stops actively looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed.
So unemployment can actually fall while the labor market is weakening.
🏠 For homebuyers and homeowners, there's another important piece of this story:
Weaker employment data can put downward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates and makes additional Fed rate hikes harder to justify.
But inflation is still running hot. 🔥
That sets up an important battle:
📉 WEAKER JOBS
vs.
🔥 HIGHER INFLATION
And mortgage rates are caught right in the middle.
#JobsReport #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Economy #FederalReserve
18 hours ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 23,000 JOBS LOST. And that's not even the worst part.
The July jobs report was WEAK. 📉
❌ Payrolls: -23K
⚠️ May/June revised down: -103K
📉 Participation: 61.4%
💰 Wage growth: 3.2%
🤔 Unemployment: somehow DOWN to 4.1%
That last number can be misleading.
When people leave the labor force and stop looking for work, they aren't counted as unemployed.
So the unemployment rate can FALL even while the labor market gets weaker.
For mortgage rates, weaker jobs data could be helpful if it pushes bond yields and Fed rate-hike expectations lower. 🏡📉
But inflation still matters.
The economy isn't creating jobs the way we thought it was.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#JobsReport #MortgageRates #Economy #HousingMarket #FederalReserve
1 day ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 Only 44,000 jobs.
That's all the private sector added in July according to today's ADP report.
Wall Street was expecting around 70,000.
The headline gets even more interesting...
📉 Nearly all of the job growth came from education and healthcare.
📉 Leisure and hospitality actually LOST jobs.
📉 Outside of healthcare, hiring remains pretty soft.
Markets care because employment is one of the biggest drivers of Federal Reserve policy.
A cooling labor market could eventually reduce inflation pressure, and that's generally good news for mortgage rates.
We'll get the official government jobs report Friday, so today's report isn't the final word.
But this definitely wasn't the report the markets were expecting.
🏡 Follow me for daily updates on mortgage rates, housing, and the economy without the political spin.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#Mortgage #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #RealEstate #Economy
4 days ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 Happy Monday!
It's one of the biggest weeks of the month for mortgage rates.
We'll receive four major labor market reports that could influence the bond market and, ultimately, mortgage rates.
📅 Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
📅 Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
📅 Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts & Jobless Claims
📅 Friday: BLS Jobs Report
I'll be breaking down each report as it's released and explaining what it means for California homebuyers and homeowners—without the Wall Street jargon.
📩 Follow along this week, and if you're wondering how these reports affect your buying or refinancing plans, send me a message.
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #HomeBuying #CaliforniaRealEstate #MortgageBroker
5 days ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
📈 The Fed's favorite inflation report is here...
Core PCE came in exactly where economists expected: 3.3%.
Headline PCE sits at 3.7%.
That's encouraging because inflation has improved.
But here's what many headlines leave out...
✅ The Fed's target isn't 3.3%.
✅ Their target is 2%.
Until inflation gets much closer to that goal, don't expect the Fed to suddenly become aggressive about cutting rates.
That's one reason mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high.
Understanding the data is more important than reacting to headlines.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#MortgageRates #Inflation #PCE #FederalReserve #HousingMarket
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🏡 Headlines don't always tell the whole story.
A lot of people are saying home prices "fell."
They're referring to the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller data.
Here's what actually happened:
📈 Actual home prices increased 0.6% from April to May.
Seasonal adjustments are an important statistical tool, but they're not the same thing as the prices buyers actually paid.
Both numbers have value.
Just make sure you know which one you're looking at before drawing conclusions.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #MortgageTips #CaliforniaHomes #RealEstate
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
Every Monday I like to look ahead instead of looking backward.
Here's my Mortgage Rate Scorecard for the week.
This week I'm watching three things more than anything else:
⭐ Geopolitics and oil prices
⭐ The Federal Reserve meeting
⭐ Thursday's PCE inflation report
Mortgage rates remain near their highest levels in more than a year, which means markets are likely to react quickly to any surprises.
The biggest lesson?
Mortgage rates don't move because of one event.
They move because investors constantly adjust their expectations based on new information.
I'll be covering each of these events as they happen throughout the week.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Inflation #Economy
1 week ago | [YT] | 1
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Mortgage Magic
Builders are still selling homes, but they're also still negotiating.
🏠 New home sales: +1.6% in June
📦 Inventory: 485,000 homes
📊 Supply: 9.3 months
Today's market is less about bidding wars and more about knowing where the leverage is.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #Mortgage #RealEstate
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
www.youtube.com/shorts/TsdfVT...
Wall Street spent years buying thousands of homes.
Now they're selling.
Is this just normal business... or the beginning of a larger shift?
I covered the story in today's market update. What's your take? 🤔
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🏴 ASK ABOUT SELLER CREDITS.
Most first-time buyers don't even know this is an option.
Sometimes the seller can help pay your closing costs.
Sometimes they can even help buy down your interest rate.
Will every seller say yes?
No.
Should you ask anyway?
Absolutely.
🏡
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#mortgage #realestate #housing #firsttimehomebuyer #money
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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