My name is Russell McDonald and I'm a mortgage broker, real estate broker and inventor in the SF Bay Area. I've been working in these fields for more than 30 years. This has given me certain insights into finance, credit and technology and I want to share some of that information with you here. I have two mortgage companies and a software company that provides very niche solutions inside the mortgage space. Basically if we ever need a specific tool first we try to just find it in the open marketplace. It's a lot easier to buy a program than create one. If we cannot find what we want then we go about creating it. Sometimes these tools are only used in-house at my other companies and sometimes we make them available to the public.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital, Inc. | NMLS 18766
TRADMOR.COM, Inc. | NMLS 1637088
Mortgage Magic
The latest Case-Shiller report shows national home prices rose 0.3% in July after seasonal adjustment.
Year-over-year:
📈 National: +1.9%
📈 20-City Index: +2.5%
But look at the bottom chart. 👀
Without seasonal adjustment, monthly price growth has slowed from +0.8% in April to just +0.1% in July.
So this is NOT a booming housing market.
But it’s also NOT the nationwide housing crash some people keep predicting.
Housing is incredibly local right now. Some markets are falling, some are basically flat, and others are still seeing serious competition.
Thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing in California? DM me.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #CaseShiller #RealEstate #Mortgage
1 day ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🏠 Mortgage Rate Scorecard: September 21–25
The Fed meeting is over. Now watch the bond market. 👀📈
The 10-Year Treasury ended last week right around 5%, and THAT is one of the biggest numbers I’m watching for mortgage rates this week.
Also on deck:
🏦 A parade of Fed speakers
💰 Major Treasury auctions
👷 Weekly jobless claims
🏠 New home sales
🏭 PMI and durable goods
The big question: Can the 10-Year Treasury move decisively back below 5%, or are we headed higher again?
Mortgage rates don’t simply follow the Fed. The bond market has the final say.
Follow me for updates as the numbers come in.
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #RealEstate #Mortgages
1 week ago | [YT] | 1
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Mortgage Magic
📊 A LOT happened this week, but here’s what really matters.
🏦 The Fed raised rates.
📈 The 10-Year Treasury pushed through 5%.
🏠 Mortgage rates remained above 7%.
💼 Jobless claims fell to 196,000.
🏗️ And we got fresh housing data on construction and pending sales.
The biggest takeaway?
The Fed raised its rate, but that does NOT mean mortgage rates automatically move the same direction.
Mortgage rates are driven much more directly by the bond market, and the bond market has been sending a pretty clear message.
Meanwhile, buyers are still dealing with the same ugly combination: high home prices, high borrowing costs and an affordability problem that isn't going away quickly.
Swipe through for my quick recap of the week. 👉
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #RealEstate #Economy
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 NEW HOME COMPLETIONS JUST DROPPED 27.1% FROM LAST YEAR.
Take a look at the August construction numbers. 👇
🏗️ Permits: 1.39M
📉 -2.7% MoM
📈 +3.5% YoY
🚧 Housing starts: 1.28M
📉 -2.6% MoM
📉 -1.2% YoY
🔨 Under construction: 1.27M
📈 +0.3% MoM
📉 -3.2% YoY
🏡 Completions: 1.13M
📉 -11.9% MoM
🚨 -27.1% YoY
That is a HUGE decline in the number of newly completed homes hitting the market.
And this is happening while buyers are already battling high mortgage rates and affordability problems.
The one encouraging number is permits, which are still 3.5% higher than last year.
But a permit isn't a house.
America needs more housing supply. We aren't going to fix affordability by building fewer homes.
💬 What are you seeing where you live? More construction or less?
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #NewConstruction #RealEstate #Mortgage #Homebuyers
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🏠📉 HOME BUILDERS ARE GETTING MORE PESSIMISTIC.
The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Index dropped to 32 in September, down from 35 last month.
Anything below 50 = builders view conditions as NEGATIVE.
And the details aren't encouraging:
📉 Current sales expectations: 35, down from 39
🔮 Future sales expectations: 37, down from 43
👥 Buyer traffic: 23, unchanged
That future-sales number caught my attention.
Builders aren't only struggling with today's market. They're becoming less optimistic about what's coming next.
Why?
📈 High mortgage rates
🏡 High home prices
💸 Affordability problems
👥 Weak buyer traffic
Builders have been using incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns to move homes, but there is only so much you can do when buyers simply can't make the numbers work.
Housing doesn't need another gimmick. It needs affordability.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #MortgageRates #RealEstate #HomeBuying #HomeBuilders
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 1
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Mortgage Magic
That beautiful house could be hiding a VERY expensive problem. 🏠💰
Fresh paint and new flooring are easy to see.
What you can’t necessarily see during a showing?
🔍 Roof problems
⚡ Electrical issues
🚿 Plumbing problems
❄️ HVAC issues
🏚️ Structural concerns
💵 Repairs that could cost thousands after closing
A home inspection isn’t about finding the “perfect” house.
It’s about understanding what you’re actually buying.
And in today’s market, buyers may have more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in recent years. Don’t be afraid to ask questions, understand the inspection report, and make an informed decision before you close.
Buying the house is expensive enough. Finding the surprises AFTER you own it is worse.
📲 DM me if you’re thinking about buying a home and want to understand the financing before you start shopping.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 The 10-year Treasury just crossed 5%.
It has pulled back to around 4.96%, but now we have a MASSIVE week for mortgage rates.
🏦 Fed decision
🎤 Warsh press conference
🏗️ Housing construction data
🏠 Pending Home Sales
🇬🇧 Bank of England decision
And here’s the crazy part:
The 10-year Treasury was around 3.60% before the Fed started aggressively CUTTING rates in September 2024.
Now?
Around 4.96%. 😳
That’s your reminder that the Fed does NOT directly control mortgage rates.
👀 Watch 5% on the 10-year.
This could be a wild week.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Mortgages
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 INFLATION IS COOLING... BUT DON'T POP THE CHAMPAGNE YET.
The August CPI report just gave us two VERY different stories. 👇
🔥 Headline CPI rose 0.4% in ONE MONTH
🔥 Headline inflation is still 3.4% year over year
That’s not exactly “inflation is dead.”
BUT...
👀 Look at CORE inflation, which strips out food and energy:
✅ +0.3% for the month
✅ Just 2.4% year over year
✅ The lowest annual core CPI reading in FIVE YEARS
That is a BIG improvement.
So what does this mean?
The Fed goes into next week’s meeting with a serious balancing act. ⚖️
📉 Underlying inflation is moving much closer to where they want it.
📈 But headline inflation is still running well above their 2% target.
And for homebuyers, there is another problem...
🏠 Mortgage rates are already back above 7%.
Why?
Because the Fed does NOT directly control mortgage rates.
The bond market is looking forward. Investors are weighing inflation, economic growth, government borrowing and what the Fed might do next.
So don't assume:
“Inflation is improving = mortgage rates are about to plunge.”
It doesn't work that way.
The good news? 👍
Core inflation is clearly improving.
The bad news? 👎
Headline inflation is still sticky enough to keep pressure on the Fed AND the bond market.
🔥 And that makes next week's Fed meeting a BIG one.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#CPI #Inflation #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #RealEstate
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 1
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Mortgage Magic
www.youtube.com/shorts/k4pEzx...
🚨 162,000 JOBS?!
The August Jobs Report absolutely crushed expectations.
BLS reported:
📈 162,000 jobs added
👷 Unemployment: 4.1%
⬆️ June/July revisions: +55,000
💰 Average hourly earnings: +3.1% YoY
Sounds fantastic.
But here's where I start asking questions.
BLS says private payrolls grew by 127,000.
ADP says 38,000.
Revelio says 37,000.
BLS says Leisure & Hospitality added 62,000 jobs. The other reports came in dramatically weaker.
And approximately 74,000 jobs were attributed to the BLS birth/death model.
Maybe BLS is right.
But when three different employment reports are telling us VERY different stories about the same labor market, I don't think we should just read the headline and move on.
Especially knowing how dramatically these numbers can be revised.
For mortgages and interest rates, this report isn't the end of the story either.
Next week's inflation data just became even more important.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#JobsReport #Economy #MortgageRates #Employment #FederalReserve
3 weeks ago (edited) | [YT] | 1
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Mortgage Magic
🚨 Private-sector hiring slowed to just 38,000 jobs in August.
That was below expectations of 47,000 and the weakest ADP reading since January.
Even more striking: 34,000 of those jobs came from companies with 500+ employees. Mid-sized companies added zero.
Meanwhile, education and health services added 45,000 jobs while manufacturing lost 17,000.
The labor market isn't falling apart, but hiring certainly appears to be getting weaker.
Next up: Friday's BLS Jobs Report.
That's the report I'll be watching VERY closely for its potential impact on mortgage rates.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#JobsReport #MortgageRates #ADP
4 weeks ago | [YT] | 1
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