My name is Russell McDonald and I'm a mortgage broker, real estate broker and inventor in the SF Bay Area. I've been working in these fields for more than 30 years. This has given me certain insights into finance, credit and technology and I want to share some of that information with you here. I have two mortgage companies and a software company that provides very niche solutions inside the mortgage space. Basically if we ever need a specific tool first we try to just find it in the open marketplace. It's a lot easier to buy a program than create one. If we cannot find what we want then we go about creating it. Sometimes these tools are only used in-house at my other companies and sometimes we make them available to the public.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital, Inc. | NMLS 18766
TRADMOR.COM, Inc. | NMLS 1637088
Mortgage Magic
📊 Inflation didn't surprise the market today. That's good. But don't confuse that with inflation being beaten.
July PCE came in right where economists expected:
🔥 Headline: 3.7% YoY
🔥 Core: 3.3% YoY
📈 Both increased 0.2% in July
The Fed's target? 2%.
So inflation is still running too hot for the Fed to declare victory.
For mortgage rates, the important part is that there was no upside surprise to give the bond market another reason to push yields higher.
But this wasn't a magic report that's suddenly going to send mortgage rates plunging either.
The next economic reports will matter. A LOT.
🏠 Buying or refinancing in California? DM me and let's look at the numbers instead of trying to guess the next Fed move.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#MortgageRates #Inflation #PCE #HousingMarket #HomeBuying
4 days ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🚨 **New Home Sales just plunged 10.5%.**
Sales fell to an annualized rate of only **607,000 in July**, down 6.3% from last year.
But this is the number I'd be watching:
👉 **9.6 months of supply.**
There are now **488,000 new homes for sale**, including:
🏗️ 115,000 not yet started
🔨 256,000 under construction
🏠 117,000 already completed
The median sales price also fell to **$393,800**, down 2.3% from June.
That doesn't necessarily mean individual new homes suddenly lost 2.3% of their value. The mix of homes sold changed, with more lower-priced homes selling during the month.
But 9.6 months of inventory tells us something important:
**Builders need buyers.**
And builders can compete in ways ordinary homeowners often can't, including closing-cost credits, upgrades and mortgage-rate incentives.
If you're shopping for a home, don't just look at the sticker price. Find out what the builder is willing to throw into the deal.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
5 days ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏠 **Home prices aren't crashing.**
Case-Shiller just reported that U.S. home prices were **UP 1.5% year over year in June**, accelerating from 1.2% in May.
Even more interesting: after three consecutive months of seasonally adjusted declines, prices turned slightly POSITIVE again in June.
📈 National: +1.5% YoY
📈 20-City Index: +2.1% YoY
📈 June National Index: +0.1% MoM seasonally adjusted
FHFA's report also showed home prices **up 2.1% year over year in Q2**, although prices were flat from May to June.
The housing market is definitely slow. Affordability is difficult. Mortgage rates are keeping buyers on the sidelines.
But slow sales and falling home prices are NOT the same thing.
And the differences between markets are becoming enormous: Chicago was up 6.9% YoY while Seattle was down 2.0%.
Your local market matters more than the national headline.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
5 days ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏡 Your mortgage payment isn't the only cost of owning a home.
Property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, maintenance, repairs and utilities all need to fit into your budget too.
That's why I tell buyers there is a BIG difference between:
👉 What you can qualify for
and
👉 What you can comfortably afford
You don't have to spend every dollar the lender says you qualify for.
The goal is to own the house without the house owning you.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
6 days ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🔥 **THIS IS FINE.** ☕🔥
The U.S. national debt officially crossed **$40 TRILLION today.**
That’s:
💰 $40,000,000,000,000
And Congress keeps spending.
Why should homeowners and homebuyers care?
Because Washington has to keep selling enormous amounts of Treasury debt to finance all of this. Treasury yields influence borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates.
So when you hear me talking about government debt, deficits and the bond market, this is why.
**$40 trillion is not just a Washington problem.**
Eventually, Main Street feels it too.
#NationalDebt #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Economy #RealEstate
1 week ago | [YT] | 1
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
$30 an hour. What could possibly go wrong? 🤦♂️
Alameda County is considering a proposal that would eventually raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour in unincorporated parts of the county.
I understand the argument: the Bay Area is incredibly expensive.
But here's my question:
At what point does making it more expensive to operate a business make the affordability problem WORSE instead of better?
Higher prices? Fewer employees? More automation? Businesses moving somewhere else?
And maybe the bigger question is this:
Why has California become so expensive that we're even talking about needing a $30 minimum wage?
I've got A LOT to say about this one. Video coming shortly.
#California #AlamedaCounty #MinimumWage #BayArea #SmallBusiness
1 week ago | [YT] | 2
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏠📉 Pending home sales just fell again.
July pending sales dropped 2.3% from June and 2.2% from a year ago.
The Pending Home Sales Index is now just 71.2, suggesting an existing-home sales pace of roughly 4.06 million homes annually.
That's well below the 5–5.5 million pace we'd associate with a healthier housing market.
The big problem continues to be AFFORDABILITY.
Buyers are dealing with high prices and elevated mortgage rates, while many existing homeowners remain reluctant to sell and give up their older low-rate mortgages.
And here's the important distinction:
Weak home sales do not necessarily mean crashing home prices.
We can have weak demand and constrained supply at the same time.
The question I'm watching now is what happens to buyer demand if mortgage rates finally give consumers some meaningful relief.
Would lower rates get YOU back into the housing market?
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏠 **Builders are getting permits… but they’re not breaking ground.**
July’s new construction numbers tell a very interesting story about the housing market.
📋 **Building permits:** 1.44 million
⬆️ 5.0% from June
⬆️ 3.1% from last year
🚧 **Housing starts:** 1.24 million
⬇️ 12.4% from June
⬇️ 13.5% from last year
🏗️ **Homes under construction:** 1.26 million
⬇️ 6.0% from last year
🔑 **Completions:** 1.21 million
⬇️ 9.1% from June
⬇️ 16.8% from last year
That gap between **permits and actual construction** matters.
Builders may be preparing for future demand, but right now they’re showing a lot more caution about actually starting new homes.
And that creates a problem for anyone expecting a huge wave of new construction to suddenly fix housing affordability.
We need more homes.
But permits alone don’t create inventory.
**Homes actually have to get built.**
If starts and completions remain weak, the supply problem doesn’t disappear just because demand slows.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #RealEstate #NewConstruction #Mortgage #HomeBuying
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏗️ Home builders are STILL not feeling good about this market.
Builder confidence ticked up in August, but only from 34 to 35.
For perspective: 50 is the dividing line between positive and negative sentiment. We’re not even close.
📈 Current sales expectations improved to 39
🔮 Future sales expectations stayed at 43
🚶 Buyer traffic? Just 23
That last number tells the story.
Builders can offer incentives. They can buy down rates. They can cut prices. They can throw upgrades into the deal.
But they cannot manufacture buyers who can afford the payment.
Until affordability improves, builders are going to remain cautious.
And if you’re waiting for builders to suddenly flood the market with enough new homes to solve the housing shortage?
These numbers say: don’t hold your breath. 🏠
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #RealEstate #MortgageRates #HomeBuilders #HomeBuying
1 week ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
📊 This week gave us a much clearer picture of the economy.
❄️ Consumer inflation cooled.
🏭 Wholesale prices were flat on the headline.
⚠️ The labor market continues to show signs of slowing.
That combination matters.
The Federal Reserve is still fighting inflation, but weaker employment gives policymakers another reason to be cautious about keeping rates restrictive for too long.
🏠 For mortgage rates, this was generally a GOOD week for the outlook.
But there’s an important warning: underlying inflation hasn’t disappeared. Some of the numbers beneath the headlines are still running hotter than the Fed would like.
So no, I’m not declaring victory.
But the direction of the data this week was encouraging. 📉
#MortgageRates #Inflation #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RealEstate
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Load more