JustWeather

Looping real-time weather data of Humberto approaching Cat 5 status and latest on Tropical depression 9 if you’re interested! - Jonathan


youtube.com/live/wP1UJP--BMc?si=8HcMYmvDhpGcOVMi

3 days ago | [YT] | 25

JustWeather

TROPICS 9/27 | Further Imelda is organizing this morning. Let’s keep the teen of Humberto taking this east before landfall. Still…this scenario would bring rough coastal conditions for Georgia and Carolinas. - Jonathan

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3 days ago | [YT] | 43

JustWeather

The trough pulling the disturbance near the Caribbean (94l) north will continue to lift. This should allow the storm to lift north riding parallel to Florida staying OFFSHORE.

The question in the track resides for north Georgia through the Carolinas. Does it follow the trough in or does it dance with Humberto and get tugged out to sea.

Either way for Florida this continues to look like rough surf and dangerous beach conditions only. Always watching for shenanigans with Humberto nearby, but remain cautiously optimistic. - Jonathan

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4 days ago | [YT] | 50

JustWeather

TROPICS 9/2 | Now a high chance for tropical development over the next 7 days. #Gabrielle is the next name on the list. - Jonathan

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4 weeks ago | [YT] | 75

JustWeather

Hurricane Erin | Pressure down to 926mb. Winds at surface around 160. We likely have a category 5 on our hands. Remarkable intensification. - Jonathan
#Tropics #HurricaneErin #Hurricane

1 month ago | [YT] | 75

JustWeather

Waking up to a Cat. 4 monster hurricane Erin. We talked last night that rapid intensification is under way. That’s defined as a 35mph increase in 24 hours. Erin nearly doubled the definition in half the time. Thankful this is missing land. - Jonathan
#HurricaneErin #tropics #hurricane

1 month ago | [YT] | 130

JustWeather

ERIN VS. IRMA | I’ve seen a lot of worry on social media about Erin possibly defying the turn away from Florida like Irma did in 2017. I want to calm some of that anxiety.

1. Models are better now. (Highlights importance of continued weather research)

2. While most ensembles were out to sea with Irma (top photo), a handful of them did capture the brush with Cuba and Southwest Florida strike.

While that chance was low early on in Irma’s life…it was NEVER zero.

In the case Erin (bottom) only one ensemble gets close to a Florida landfall.

The wild model runs you may have seen were from the GFS more than 10 days out which includes no skill and also the Euro AI model. It’s CLEAR the AI models need more time.

Ensembles are the best thing to look at this far out. Cause it does take into account wild cards like Irma’s SW Florida landfall into account. There has been NO evidence in the ensembles if Erin pulling an Irma.

I wrote a story that goes more in depth. Share with your friends because that worry is all over the place.

Erin should turn well before Florida. Any entity with an arrow pointed toward Florida without any evidence shouldn’t be trusted. Watching for the northern Caribbean and Bermuda. Could have a close shave with the Carolina coast. - Jonathan

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1 month ago | [YT] | 101

JustWeather

Tropical Storm Erin just formed. Here’s the latest.

https://youtu.be/e51FWNXSLqw?si=pT-Lp...

1 month ago | [YT] | 33

JustWeather

TROPICS 8/9 | Officially have Invest 97L. We’ll get our first look at the spaghetti models later today. - Jonathan

1 month ago (edited) | [YT] | 130

JustWeather

There is the new wave to watch (yellow). Most euro ensembles have it curving north of the Caribbean islands…but a few members skirt the northern Caribbean. High pressure is building so this one merits watching much more than Invest 96L did. - Jonathan

1 month ago | [YT] | 101