Rahul Jain

Nifty50: down 11%
NASDAQ: up 20%
Gold: up 11%

Three completely different stories.

Let me break them down:

[1] India's problem is not India. It's oil and US bonds.

Oil is back at $98–100, and the inverse relationship with Nifty & Oil is almost chart-perfect:
- Oil up, Nifty down
- Oil cools, Nifty recovers.

Meanwhile the 30-year US Treasury yield is at its highest since 2004, with both the 10-year and 30-year above 5%.
A US investor earning 5% risk-free has very little reason to send money to India.

The day these two problems are gone, India's market is likely to bounce back.

[2] NASDAQ is up 20% YTD

US markets may appear expensive

NASDAQ's PE stands at 33 against a mean of 24.
But US markets are expensive for a reason and that's earnings growth.

Q1-2026 earnings grew
- 45% YoY for NASDAQ
- 28% for the S&P 500

and the US economy seemingly doing well as they surprisingly added 1,62,000 jobs

[3] Gold has a ceiling before it has a floor.

At ₹1,50,000 and up 11% YTD:
but money leaves gold when bonds pay 5%.

Add the import duty question:
at 15% duty plus 3% GST, gold lands in India at ₹1,57,000;
at 6%, the same gold lands at ₹1,44,000.

Smuggled gold is already ₹8,000 per 10g cheaper, which is exactly why the duty cut is being talked about.

Gold's Rangebound movement between ₹1,45,000–₹1,60,000 looks more honest than ₹2 lakh.

The one line that matters: DON'T PANIC
Volatility is the price of the returns, not a reason to stop paying it.

I've broken down all of this data in detail in a video on my YouTube channel
It's has cross 1.5 lakh views in 17 hours.
Link in the comments.

2 hours ago | [YT] | 18

Rahul Jain

He runs one of the most boring businesses: “LAUNDRY”

And still does ₹200 crore, across 900+ stores in 200+ cities.

Mr Arunabh Sinha is an IIT Bombay graduate who left a corporate career to start UClean.
People trolled him.
His own relatives called him a dhobi.

He didn't care.
Today he employs over 3,500 people.

In this episode of Good 2 Great, we sit down with him to discuss:

[1] The ins and outs of the laundry business in India
[2] The franchise he offers, and what it actually costs to open one
[5] Laundry versus a McDonald's or a Zudio franchise and which is the safer bet for a first-timer?

Watch the full conversation on my Good 2 Great YouTube channel

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5 hours ago | [YT] | 31

Rahul Jain

Me: What brought you to stock market 36 years ago?
Naren: I lost my mother early on and me and my father would watch cricket and spend time with stocks

Today Naren manages more than 12 Lacs Crore at ICICI Pru AMC!!

36 glorious years of investing have taught him 3 critical investing lessons

[1] Be a Contrarian investor
[2] Read market cycles and
[3] Take care of asset allocation.

Naren is a B.Tech from IIT Chennai and an alumnus of Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Calcutta.

In this podcast, I bring you:

[1] Where Naren currently sees contrarian opportunities,
[2] How he thinks about sectors and market cycles, and
[3] Why hybrid/asset-allocation strategies is critical

Watch the full conversation on my YouTube channel
It has already crossed 1.5 Lakh+ Views in just 2 days
Link in the comments

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2 days ago | [YT] | 61

Rahul Jain

Albert Einstein's brain weighed 1,230 grams.

The average adult brain weighs around 1,400 grams.

The most famous mind in human history walked around with a brain smaller than yours.

So it was never about size or structure.

Every single human being is born with the same hardware:

[1] 86 billion neurons
[2] 4 quadrillion synapses
[3] The same lobes, the same wiring

Elon Musk started from zero.
No inheritance.
Today he is worth close to $1 trillion.

If we open up his brain and yours side by side, structurally you could not tell them apart.

The difference is entirely in FUNCTION.

Every function of your brain can be trained.

Speech.
Memory.
Judgement.
Decision Making.

But how?

In this episode of Good 2 Great, Dr. Praveen Gupta, Chairman, Marengo Asia International Institute of Neuro and Spine, discusses:
[1] Can you train your brain to think bigger, act faster and take more risks?
[2] Why can some people focus for hours while others cannot sit for ten minutes?
[3] Can memory actually be trained to become dramatically better?
[4] How do you learn complex subjects faster?
[5] How do you make better judgments, faster decisions and sharper predictions?

Watch the full conversation on my Good 2 Great YouTube channel
Link in the comments

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3 days ago | [YT] | 47

Rahul Jain

Here is why Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch are Value Investors!!

In last 21 years, which investing style won?

[1] Nifty 500 Value 50 index: grew 27x
[2] Nifty 500: grew 17x

So yes, it works.
But not every year.

Across those 21 years, here's how often each style came first:

[1] Value: 8 years out of 21
[2] Momentum: 6 years out of 21
[3] Low volatility: 4 years out of 21
[4] Quality: 2 years out of 21

In 2008:
Value fell 64%
Broader index fell 56%.

But, in 2009:
Value bounced back 143%
Momentum did 61%.

That's the pattern.
Value falls harder in a crash, and recovers fastest after it.

Now here's where 99% of people go wrong.

Value investing does NOT mean buying cheap stocks/fallen stocks

A cheap stock can be a business in structural decline.
The price keeps falling because the business keeps shrinking.
It may never recover.

An undervalued stock is a good business that fell on bad news, where the market panicked and mispriced it.
That one could eventually become a growth stock, and that's where money is made.

So how do you actually invest in "Value style"?

Three ways:

[1] Direct stocks:

Don't pick on low P/E alone.
Use the PEG ratio, and look at forward PEG, not trailing.
Study order books, capex and EPS growth.

[2] Active value funds:

23 exist. Judge them on 5 things:
→ 3-year rolling returns
→ Volatility
→ Large vs mid/small cap allocation
→ Concentration risk in top holdings
→ Fund manager's experience

[3] Passive index funds:

Only 3 track the Nifty 500 Value 50, and all are just 2-4 years old.
Compare them on AUM, tracking error and expense ratio.

I have explained the above topic in one of my YouTube videos.
Link in the comments

5 days ago | [YT] | 94

Rahul Jain

What a speech by Uday Kotak!!

Breaking down his "7 Point Advisory" to the Finance Minister of India

[1] Tighten the fiscal deficit

India's consolidated deficit is 7%+.
The US, the world's most leveraged country, runs around 6%.
India needs to bring it down.

[2] Don't over-financialise

Markets exist to fund businesses, not just trading volumes.
The US holds 70% of global market cap, and Nvidia alone is worth more than India's entire stock market.
That's the mountain India must climb, and Mr. Kotak believes it can within 20 years.

[3] Never waste a crisis

Canada just made all capital expenditure fully tax-deductible in year one, to pull global capital in.
India must take similar actions.

[4] Make what the world want

Why Thailand is the world's biggest flower exporter and not India?
Something to ponder.

[5] Solve the gold

FY26: current account deficit of $25 billion.
Gold imports: $72 billion.
Without gold, India would have run a surplus.

[6] Balance regulation and development

E.g.
Let more cars on the highway
Build better signals to prevent accidents.
But don't stop the traffic.

[7] Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh

Brahma: Young businesses creating something new
Vishnu: Big businesses playing safe where they're comfortable
Mahesh: Creative destruction, clearing out what no longer works

India's giants need more Brahma, and less Vishnu.

Thoroughly impressed with his speech, a must watch for every Indian.
Link to the full video in the comments

6 days ago | [YT] | 134

Rahul Jain

Do you know we pay more than 24 different types of taxes in India?

12 taxes collected by the central government:

[1] Income tax
[2] Surcharge
[3] Health and education cess
[4] Short-term capital gains tax
[5] Long-term capital gains tax
[6] Securities transaction tax
[7] Dividend tax
[8] Tax on gifts
[9] GST
[10] GST compensation cess
[11] Customs duty
[12] Union excise duty

8 taxes collected by state governments:

[1] VAT on petrol and diesel
[2] State excise on liquor
[3] Stamp duty
[4] Registration charges
[5] Road tax
[6] Professional tax
[7] Electricity duty
[8] Land revenue

4 taxes collected by the Local Bodies

[1] Property tax
[2] Water and sewage charges
[3] Toll
[4] Entertainment tax

And as a result, have a look at India's income tax collection trend:
FY21 → ~₹9.5 lakh crore
FY26 → ₹23.4 lakh crore

This is a 20% CAGR!!

Key question - While tax collection has been rising, is the quality of life rising with it?

Probably not because:

Among top 10 countries by GDP, India ranks:

[1] 130th on the Human Development Index
[2] Life expectancy of 72 years (WORST)
[3] Average schooling of 6.9 years (WORST)
[4] Air pollution at 44.2 (WORST)
[5] Safe water at 76.4 (WORST)
[6] Health spending of just $346 per person (WORST)
[7] Child mortality at 2.6 (WORST)

Now the problem is NOT that our taxes are high.
The problem is that only ~6% of Indians file income tax, and 63% of them declare zero liability.

But even if that 6% became 50%, would the quality of life improve?

Probably not. Here's why.

Of every ₹100 the government spends:
[1] Interest payments: ₹26
[2] Defence: ₹14.7
[3] Roads: ₹5.8
[4] Education: ₹2.6
[5] Health: ₹2
[6] Everything else (Subsidies, Pensions, Yojnas and Govt. Freebies): ₹32

More taxes would give the government more to spend.
The real question is whether it spends that money "effectively"?

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.

I have explained the above topic in one of my YouTube videos. It has already crossed 1Lakh+ views in less than 24 hours. Link in the comments.

1 week ago | [YT] | 115