Markets And Global Trends

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2 days ago | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

🚨 BREAKING: Supreme Court Could Rule on Trump Tariffs TODAY 🚨



What happens to the Canadian Dollar if tariffs are declared ILLEGAL?

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Here's the quick breakdown:



📉 USD/CAD could DROP 3-5% on a full tariff rollback
📈 CAD has been weighed down by tariff uncertainty since 2025
💰 $215 BILLION in tariff revenue at stake
⚖️ Even Trump-appointed justices appeared sceptical at November hearing


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Key scenarios:


✅ Tariffs ruled illegal → Strong CAD rally, risk-on across markets
⚠️ Mixed ruling → Moderate CAD strength, uncertainty continues
❌ Tariffs upheld → CAD weakness (lowest probability)


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Watch levels on USD/CAD:

• Support: 1.3600 / 1.3550
• Resistance: 1.4050 / 1.4100


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The ruling could drop around 10:00 AM EST – expect VOLATILITY!


Are you positioned for this? Drop your thoughts below 👇





#forex #usdcad #canadiandollar #trump #tariffs #supremecourt #trading #forextrading #currencytrading #fx #markets #financialnews #tradingview #daytrading #swingtrading #forexsignals #usdollar #cad #loonie #tradingnews #marketanalysis #forexmarket #economics #tradewars #breakingnews #investing #stockmarket #forextrader #technicalanalysis #fundamentalanalysis #USDCAD

1 week ago | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

🛢️ CRUDE OIL UPDATE — January 2026

**Why I'm BEARISH on Crude Oil & Selling the Spikes**

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What's Moving Oil Right Now?

🇻🇪 Venezuela Regime Change

The big headline this weekend — the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. President Trump has signalled that reviving Venezuela's oil industry is a key objective, with major U.S. oil companies expected to invest billions.

**But here's the reality:**
- Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels)
- Current production? Just ~800,000 barrels/day — less than 1% of global supply
- Decades of underinvestment mean any production recovery will take YEARS, not months
- Analysts estimate it would cost $10 billion annually just to begin turning things around

**Bottom line:** Short-term risk premium is in the price, but the actual supply impact is minimal.

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🛢️ OPEC+ Holding Output Steady

OPEC+ met over the weekend and confirmed they're keeping production unchanged through Q1 2026.

- Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other key producers are pausing output hikes through March
- They cited "seasonality" and want to assess market conditions
- Next meeting: February 1, 2026

This is supportive in the short term, but they're sitting on 1.2 million barrels/day of cuts still waiting to be unwound. The supply overhang remains.

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📊 The Bigger Picture — Oversupply

This is the real story that matters:

- **Oil fell 20% in 2025** — the biggest annual drop since the pandemic
- **EIA forecasts Brent at $55/barrel** for Q1 2026 and beyond
- **IEA warns of a record surplus in 2026** as supply growth outpaces demand
- Production keeps climbing in the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada
- Meanwhile, demand growth is slowing, especially in China

The fundamentals are bearish. Plain and simple.

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📅 Key Events This Week

| Tuesday | API Crude Inventory Report |
| Wednesday | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report |
| Friday | U.S. Jobs Report |

Watch for any inventory surprises — a larger-than-expected build would confirm the oversupply narrative.

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My Take: BEARISH 🐻

I'm selling crude oil on spike-ups.

The Venezuela headlines are creating short-term noise and pushing prices higher, but the underlying fundamentals haven't changed. We're in an oversupplied market with slowing demand, and OPEC+ is running out of room to defend prices.

Geopolitical risk premiums fade. Oversupply doesn't.

I'll be looking to short any rallies into resistance. Let the headlines create the opportunity.

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**What's your view on crude? Drop a comment below! 👇**

*This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.*

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📈 **Markets And Global Trends**
*Stay ahead of the markets.*

#CrudeOil #Oil #WTI #Trading #Commodities #OPEC #Venezuela #Markets #BearishOil

1 week ago (edited) | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

📊 METALS OUTLOOK 2026: Why Major Banks Are Bullish on Copper, Gold & Silver
As we kick off 2026, the metals complex is presenting some of the most compelling opportunities we've seen in years. Here's what the biggest names on Wall Street are forecasting — and why buying on dips could be a smart strategy.

🥇 GOLD
Gold delivered a stunning 60%+ gain in 2025, and institutions see more upside ahead:

J.P. Morgan → $5,000/oz by Q4 2026
Goldman Sachs → $4,900/oz by year-end
Bank of America → $5,000/oz target
UBS → $5,000/oz base case, $5,400/oz if risks escalate
Morgan Stanley → $4,500–$4,800/oz
Wells Fargo → $4,500–$4,700/oz

Key drivers: Central bank accumulation (averaging 585 tonnes/quarter), declining real yields, persistent geopolitical tensions, and continued de-dollarization by emerging markets.

🥈 SILVER
After surging 120% in 2025, silver has entered price-discovery territory with a fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits:

Bank of America → $65/oz target, $56.25/oz average
UBS → $60/oz, with potential spike to $65/oz
Citi → $62/oz base case, $70/oz bullish scenario
Major bank consensus → $56–$65/oz range
Technical targets → $72–$88/oz if momentum continues

Key drivers: Record industrial demand from solar panels and EVs, persistent supply deficits, and a compressing gold/silver ratio.

🔶 COPPER
The "electrification metal" hit record highs in 2025 amid critical supply disruptions:

J.P. Morgan → $12,500/mt by Q2 2026 (~$12,075/mt average)
UBS → $12,000–$13,000/mt by year-end
Citi → $13,000/mt in early 2026
Goldman Sachs → $10,000–$11,400/mt range
Deutsche Bank → Above $10,000/mt, with peak prices in H1

Key drivers: Major mine disruptions (Grasberg, Quebrada Blanca), AI infrastructure demand, renewable energy buildout, and a projected 150,000–330,000 tonne deficit in 2026.

💡 THE TAKEAWAY
With this level of institutional conviction, pullbacks in these metals may represent strategic buying opportunities. Whether it's central bank demand for gold, industrial consumption for silver, or the energy transition driving copper — the macro tailwinds appear firmly in place.
As always, do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

#Gold #Silver #Copper #PreciousMetals #Commodities #Investing #MetalsOutlook2026 #BuyTheDip #GoldPrice #SilverPrice #CopperPrice #WallStreet #JPMorgan #GoldmanSachs #UBS #CentralBanks #EnergyTransition #Inflation #SafeHaven #MarketsAndGlobalTrends

1 week ago | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

Silver's been on a wild ride lately, and I'm eyeing my next entry. Here's what I'm thinking... 👀

I'm hunting for long positions on dips, with my sweet spot around $75 (based on my feed's quotes).

Here's my game plan before I pull the trigger:
First, I need to see price dip into that zone – but here's the key: I want to see buyers actually show up with conviction. Not just a weak bounce, but a clear reclaim of the level.

What would really get me excited? A liquidity sweep below the zone followed by a quick snap back. I'm not interested in watching it slowly grind lower for hours – that tells me the buyers aren't confident yet.

Then I need momentum confirmation on the lower timeframes: a higher low forming, then continuation to the upside. That's my signal the structure is holding.

How I'm managing risk:
→ Scaling in, NOT going all-in at one level (learned that lesson the hard way!)
→ If we get a clean break and hold below $75? I'm out – no second-guessing
→ First target is that prior supply/resistance area above, then I'll reassess based on price action

Quick disclaimer: This is just my trading plan shared for educational purposes – not financial advice. Do your own analysis and manage your risk!

Now I want to hear from you: If you're trading Silver, what level are you watching? Are you thinking longs, shorts, or sitting on your hands? Drop your thoughts below! 👇

#Silver #XAGUSD #PreciousMetals #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #MarketStructure #SupportAndResistance

2 weeks ago (edited) | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

Ueda vs. Takaichi

The "Nagoya Surprise"
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal yet that an interest rate hike is imminent, potentially as early as the December 18–19 meeting. Speaking to business leaders in Nagoya, Ueda shifted from vague data-dependency to explicitly stating the board will "weigh the pros and cons" of a hike, effectively putting a December move on the table.



The market reaction was textbook "hawkish shock": The Yen surged (USD/JPY dropped), the Nikkei 225 tumbled, and JGB yields hit levels not seen since 2008.




1. The Catalyst: What Ueda Said (and What He Meant)


Ueda’s speech in Nagoya contained three critical components that shifted market sentiment:


The "Pros and Cons" Phrase: By stating the BoJ will "consider the pros and cons" of a hike this month, he removed the safety net that previously suggested they might wait for 2026 wage talks.


Dismissing US Risks: A major excuse for pausing rate hikes was uncertainty surrounding the US economy and the Trump administration’s trade policies. Ueda explicitly noted these risks are "diminishing," signalling that the BoJ no longer feels the need to wait for clarity from Washington.


Wage-Price Spiral Confidence: He cited "intensifying labour shortages" and robust corporate profits as evidence that the domestic economy can withstand higher rates.



2. Market Impact Analysis


Asset Class Reaction Today The "Why"
USD/JPY Bearish (Yen Stronger)
Dropped below 155.50 Interest rate differentials are narrowing. As the Fed prepares to cut and the BoJ prepares to hike, the "carry trade" becomes less attractive, forcing traders to buy back Yen.


Nikkei 225 Bearish (Stocks Down)
Fell ~1.5% to 2.0% A stronger Yen hurts the profits of Japan's export-heavy giants (Toyota, Sony). Plus, higher borrowing costs increase headwinds for domestic firms.


JGB Yields Bullish (Yields Up)
2Y & 10Y Yields hit 2008 Highs Bond traders are dumping debt in anticipation of higher rates. The 2-year yield (most sensitive to policy) broke above 1.0%, signaling a hike is fully priced in.



3. Forward Outlook: The "December Duel"
Date to Watch: December 18–19, 2025 (BoJ Policy Meeting).

Probability: Swap markets are now pricing in a ~64% chance of a hike in December, rising to 90% by January.



The Risk: If Ueda balks in December after this setup, the Yen will crash (USD/JPY could rocket back to 160), destroying BoJ credibility. He has effectively backed himself into a corner where he must deliver.

#boj, #japanmarkets, #kazuoueda, #yen, #usdjpy, #nikkei225, #jgb, #interestrates, #forexnews, #fxtrading, #macroeconomics, #globalmarkets, #centralbanks, #japannews, #marketupdate, #tradinganalysis, #yieldcurve, #currencytrading, #economy, #finance, #traderlife, #tradingstrategy, #forexanalysis, #yenstrength, #japanstocks, #usdjpytoday, #bojpolicy, #japaninflation, #financialnews

1 month ago (edited) | [YT] | 2

Markets And Global Trends

⚖️ Closed NZDJPY Short – 6.3 Pips Profit

I’ve decided to close my NZDJPY short for a small 6.3 pip profit after noticing unfavourable price action developing during the session.

While my earlier bias was driven by strong demand in Japan’s 30-year bond auction and expectations of delayed BOJ tightening, the Yen carry trade is currently dominating global FX flows.

With the carry trade momentum raging, staying short Yen pairs right now isn’t wise — liquidity, positioning, and sentiment are all working against that setup.

In trading, discipline means knowing when not to fight the market.
I’ll wait for clearer signals before re-engaging with JPY crosses.

📊 You can verify the trade details here:
🔗 MyFXBook Trade Record - www.myfxbook.com/members/Abhi/markets-global-trend…

#NZDJPY #ForexTrading #YenCarryTrade #MarketsAndGlobalTrends #FXStrategy #MacroTrading #DisciplineInTrading #RiskManagement #CurrencyMarkets #TradingUpdate

3 months ago | [YT] | 3

Markets And Global Trends

📉 Short NZDJPY – Japan’s Bond Market Sends a Strong Signal

Japan’s 30-year government bond auction came in stronger than expected, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.41 — higher than the previous auction and above the 12-month average.

That firm demand eased market fears after the surprise win of pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi, whose policies imply higher government spending and delayed Bank of Japan rate hikes — possibly until December.

The takeaway?
Despite political uncertainty, Japan’s long-end bonds are attracting buyers, suggesting confidence in JGB stability and less pressure on yields to rise further.

For currency markets, this means JPY strength — as the immediate risk of a disorderly bond selloff fades and investors price out near-term BOJ tightening fears.

On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar remains vulnerable, following weak domestic data and global risk-off sentiment.

Together, this sets up the perfect macro environment to be short NZDJPY — a trade aligning with the BOJ’s dovish patience and New Zealand’s slowing growth momentum.

#NZDJPY #JPY #ForexTrading #MacroStrategy #MarketsAndGlobalTrends #JapanEconomy #BondMarket #FXStrategy #TradingInsights #CurrencyAnalysis #NZD

3 months ago | [YT] | 3

Markets And Global Trends

🚨 EURAUD Short Update: +76 Pips & Major France Shock

Good news — my short EURAUD trade is closed with +76 pips in profit. But that’s not all: France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has just resigned, validating the political-risk narrative that drove the move in the first place.

🔍 What Just Happened

After mounting pressure and threats of a no-confidence vote, Lecornu formally resigned today.

Macron’s continuity cabinet gambit has backfired dramatically, leaving a power vacuum and heightened instability in Paris.

Bond spreads — already under stress — are likely to jump further as markets price in the risk of snap elections or further government collapse.

💶 Why This Confirms the Trade

The resignation is the clearest sign yet that the political crisis is not contained — it’s escalating.

EUR weakness (especially vs AUD) in this environment is logical: the euro suffers from renewed uncertainty, while the Australian dollar gains by comparison.

The earlier +76 pips profit was driven by the same dynamics — now the headline move gives even more ammunition for a potential follow-through.

🔄 What Comes Next (My Watchlist)

A possible Jean Castex–style caretaker government or early elections — both would intensify risk aversion toward euro-zone assets.

EURAUD could retrace upward — offering a re-entry opportunity on weakness later.

Watch for moves in French 10-year spreads vs German Bunds;

Also monitor how the ECB responds — especially if contagion threatens to widen across Europe.

✅ In short:
I booked +76 pips profit in EURAUD, and Lecornu’s resignation bolsters the macro narrative. I’ll now shift attention to identifying high-probability re-entry zones and key political/fiscal catalysts in France.



#EURAUD #ForexTradeUpdate #FrenchPolitics #LecornuResigns #MacroTrading #EurozoneRisk #FXMarkets #TradeRecap #MarketUpdates

3 months ago | [YT] | 3

Markets And Global Trends

🇫🇷 Macron’s Continuity Cabinet Deepens Political Risk — Why I’m Short EURAUD

France’s political instability is once again at the forefront of Europe’s macro narrative.
President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint an almost unchanged cabinet under new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has triggered strong backlash — not just from opposition parties, but even from within his own centrist camp.

This “continuity cabinet” has effectively extended the same policy gridlock that brought down the last two governments. The result: rising political uncertainty, widening bond spreads, and renewed weakness in the euro.

⚠️ A Crisis of Legitimacy

The French Socialist Party, which holds a key swing vote in parliament, openly declared that Macron’s new government has “no legitimacy left.”
Opposition leaders across the spectrum — from the far-right to centre-left — are threatening no-confidence votes that could topple Lecornu’s government as early as this week.

France’s 10-year yield premium over German Bunds has already surged to 84 basis points, the highest since January.

💶 Market Implications

This widening spread means higher French borrowing costs, greater fiscal pressure, and weaker investor confidence in euro-area assets.


A stagnant French economy, a fragile coalition, and surging risk premia are the last things the European Central Bank wants to see while it’s already navigating slowing growth across the bloc.

🇦🇺 Why EURAUD Short Makes Sense

Contrast this with Australia:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautiously hawkish, with resilient domestic demand and a stronger commodity backdrop supporting the AUD.
Meanwhile, Europe faces rising political fragmentation, slowing fiscal consolidation, and declining confidence in its second-largest economy.

When political risk meets fiscal stress, the euro tends to underperform — especially against commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar that benefit from global growth and China’s gradual stabilisation.

📉 My View

I remain short EURAUD, expecting further downside as:

France’s government stability deteriorates,

bond spreads widen further against Germany, and

the ECB adopts a more dovish tone in response to regional weakness.

In short:
Political paralysis in Paris is eroding euro confidence, while steady fundamentals in Australia make the AUD the relative winner.

#EURAUD #ForexAnalysis #Macron #FrancePolitics #Eurozone #TradingStrategy #MacroOutlook #FXMarkets #EuropeanEconomy #AustralianDollar #GlobalTrends #EURO #EUR

3 months ago | [YT] | 2