Decision Desk HQ

DDHQ FORECAST: The first edition of our forecast for the 2026 elections is live!

Our model has ratings for all 435 House races and every Senate race up this cycle.

HOUSE

Democrats are favored to flip the House.

Democrats - 61% probability
Republicans - 39% probability

Democrats are favored in 226 seats and Republicans are favored in 209 seats.

SENATE

Republicans are narrowly favored to win the Senate.

Republicans - 57% probability
Democrats - 43% probability

Democrats are favored to flip North Carolina, and five states (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas) are Tossups.

CONTROL

Democratic Congress - 40% probability
Republican Congress - 36% probability
Republican Senate, Democratic House - 22% probability
Democratic Senate, Republican House - 3% probability

Find our entire model at this link:

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026

1 month ago | [YT] | 4

Decision Desk HQ

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has released a draft congressional map ahead of the state's special redistricting session.

Compared to the current map (left), the new map (right) would eliminate as many as 4 Democratic representatives - 2 in central Florida and 2 in south Florida.

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3 months ago | [YT] | 11

Decision Desk HQ

It's election night, and we're following 70+ elections across Georgia, Florida, Iowa, South Carolina, and Wisconsin.

The marquee race is the runoff special election in Georgia's State Senate District 18, a seat Republicans are likely to hold.


election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02-17

6 months ago | [YT] | 6

Decision Desk HQ

Tonight, we're tracking 121 elections across the country - including 108 in Oklahoma alone.

There are three state legislative special elections tonight, two in northern Virginia and one in Oklahoma.

Follow all of them at the link below:

election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02-10

6 months ago | [YT] | 8

Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ is retracting its projection in the NJ-11 Democratic primary.

We have deleted the race projection tweet.

At the time of our initial projection, all absentee and early vote had been recorded in all three counties, and we had 66/240 precincts in Essex County (expected to be Analilia Mejia strongest) that had reported election day vote & two election day vote drops in Morris County (expected to be Thomas Malinowski’s strongest).

Malinowski had a 4,900 raw vote lead, and the margin he was losing the election day vote in Essex combined with the margin he was winning the election day vote in Morris, provided him a sizable cushion. Even if Mejia’s projected margins were doubled, Malinowski was still projected to win by more than 1,000 votes.

As the night progressed, margins in Morris County quickly tilted toward Mejia; Mejia began winning drops by 20%-30%, representing a swing of 65 points compared to the absentee vote.

This trend reversal prompted us to re-examine our race projection and ultimately retract it.

Our apologies for the inaccurate projection on this race, and we hope our swift retraction and transparency are seen as a sign of our intent to be quick and accurate in all things elections now and going forward.

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6 months ago | [YT] | 8

Decision Desk HQ

We're following tonight's Democratic primary in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District. Fmr. Rep. Tom Malinowski leads in fundraising & limited polling. But he's been the target of sizable spending.

Other notable candidates include Essex Co. commissioner Brendan Gill, former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way & activist Analilia Mejia.

The winner will be the favorite to hold this Harris+8 district in April's special election. Follow along tonight at the link below:

election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02-05

6 months ago | [YT] | 4

Decision Desk HQ

Tonight, we're tracking eight elections in Texas.The marquee race is the runoff election in Texas's 18th Congressional District. Two Democrats vying to replace the late Sylvester Turner in this Houston-based district.

We're also tracking the special election in Texas's 9th State Senate District, based in Tarrant County. This district voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024.Ennis, Texas is holding special elections for both Mayor and Mayor Pro Tempore.

In Frisco City, Texas, we're tracking special elections for two city council positions. We're also following an at-large special election for city council in Grand Prairie, and a city council runoff in Schertz City.

Find all the results at this link: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01-31

6 months ago | [YT] | 8

Decision Desk HQ

Tonight, we're tracking six elections across the United States.

In Minnesota, a special election is being held in State House 64A. Democrats are heavily favored to win, which would return the State House to a 67-67 tie.

We're also tracking a number of local elections, including city commission and mayoral elections in Florida City, FL, a school district funding referendum in Lagunitas School District, CA, and a city council election in Los Fresnos, TX.

Follow live here:

election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01-27

6 months ago | [YT] | 8